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August 2022 Observation & Discussion


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Didn't see an August thread so I'm making one. Ended July here in Ashland with a more comfortable 72/65 day, and 0.74" rainfall! 

Some highway a little outside of town had some standing water but for the most part I don't think anyone was hurt today.

Looking out in the nearer term, early August doesn't look too hot for eastern Kentucky. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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A real nice storm just passed through the Cedar Rapids area.  I received 1.04" of rain.  Only 1.4 miles to my south over 2" fell.  There was constant lightning and soft, rolling thunder throughout the storm.  When the rain ended I went outside and saw an amazing lightning display above, at the back of the anvil.  At the same time, I could see a few stars shining through the thin clouds above.  It was pretty amazing.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Didn't see an August thread so I'm making one. Ended July here in Ashland with a more comfortable 72/65 day, and 0.74" rainfall! 

Some highway a little outside of town had some standing water but for the most part I don't think anyone was hurt today.

Looking out in the nearer term, early August doesn't look too hot for eastern Kentucky. 

You have an MCS headed your way. ⛈ 

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Models show another round of storms in Iowa late tonight.  The trend is to favor central to south-central/southeast Iowa.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had a nice lightning show here in Sarasota FL last night. Went on for 6-7hrs, storms kind of hung out over the steamy gulf waters.

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At Grand Rapids August has been warmer than July 14 times. The biggest difference was in 1947 when July had a mean of 69.1 and August had a mean of 77.7. The last time August was warmer than July was just last year when August had a mean of 74.3 and July was 72.3. So yes in some years August is warmer than July. 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

You have an MCS headed your way. ⛈ 

Or not. Lol. That was one of the more impressive collapses I’ve ever seen. 😂

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That ridge over the Plains isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Tropical forcing looks E-Hem dominant for awhile to come.

08A48996-6E8D-4694-9A7E-D462A874040B.png

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Hello from Tucson, AZ! Been real busy so haven't been able to check in much. Vegas got flooded out the night after we left. Crazy stuff. LA was beautiful and sunny during our few days out there. Drove down I-10 thru the desert and Phoenix yesterday. That was a hot one! I've seen lots of storms in the distance but we've only driven through a couple weaker storms. Tomorrow we head to San Angelo, TX. 

Can't believe it's Aug 1st already. Fall is coming soon!

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Or not. Lol. That was one of the more impressive collapses I’ve ever seen. 😂

There must be some additional convection happening today in the Slight Risk area... otherwise that would have been adjusted to reflect this, if that line were the focus. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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57 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Hello from Tucson, AZ! Been real busy so haven't been able to check in much. Vegas got flooded out the night after we left. Crazy stuff. LA was beautiful and sunny during our few days out there. Drove down I-10 thru the desert and Phoenix yesterday. That was a hot one! I've seen lots of storms in the distance but we've only driven through a couple weaker storms. Tomorrow we head to San Angelo, TX. 

Can't believe it's Aug 1st already. Fall is coming soon!

That trip down I-10 you can really get the sense of the barron desert Landscape.  The Monsoon has been really good this year.  Enjoy the rest of your trip!  Tucson got nailed yesterday or was it the day before.  

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

That trip down I-10 you can really get the sense of the barron desert Landscape.  The Monsoon has been really good this year.  Enjoy the rest of your trip!  Tucson got nailed yesterday or was it the day before.  

Yeah the desert is like a whole new world. Tucson got hit yesterday before we got to town. There were still a few areas of standing water but nothing significant when we arrived. 

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87/66, and figures we start off August with some late evening lightning!

Still not as frequent as our June MCS storms, but out of these little tiny popcorn chicken bites these are fairly charged!

These cells are sliding to my north/NE. Something early morning could come through into my area.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 43
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 days ahead of 103-104.  
I know.    What’s new?  
 

Hoping we see this on the change as Tom stated this morning.
90’s would be nice. 😄. I’m not greedy. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Once again, the models had no clue in the LR of seeing cooler air around these parts.  This week will feature volatile weather with surges of warmth, mind you, it won't be as HOT as the models were suggesting earlier on.  I remember how much enthusiasm WGN was pumping on this weeks "so-called" Heat Wave.  The producer is a Hot weather fanatic and suggesting mid/upper 90s for days.  Nasso much anymore my friend!  Prob only hit 90F tomorrow before the CF comes through igniting severe storms.  

Anyway, the LR pattern looks to feature pretty good shot for some BN temps for the eastern CONUS.  @Phil might miss out on some nice late summer weather.  @Timmy Supercell might have to prepare for more flooding concerns.

0z EPS...Cool to Rule for Week 2???

image.gif

image.png

 

Man, the 0z Euro Control is pretty darn cool...it's been showing run-to-tun consistency, esp if the Greenland Blocking shows up and the +PNA pattern that ALL the models are locking onto.

image.png

3.png

 

You can pretty much see the eastern MW/OHV is in the bullseye of precip.... @Clintongreat news for the farmers...

image.png

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They keep adjusting us up!

103* today and 104* mañana!  Enough already.  

Edit:

I have several  2 1/2” X 2’ cracks in the ground of the golf course rough near my property.  Amazing. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Thankfully, the real heatwave will not happen here in S MI, thank goodness. Tomorrow will be a real hot one, where temps climb to near 95F, then the rest of the week shows 80s and possibly low 80s for highs over the weekend w tons of sunshine. Also, hopefully severe weather can occur tomorrow, as needed rain is definitely welcomed. Some models are showing some nasty cells moving through S MI. Fingers crossed.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Southside of Cedar Rapids just had a good cell move through...Iowa City getting hit hard...

Models really backed off any storms last night, but, once again, I was awaken to a strong storm at 4am.  Again, much of the area got nothing, but Cedar Rapids and Iowa City got hit... same as the previous night.  This time the storms moved more quickly, so the rain totals were lower.  I received a quick 0.45" and small hail.  Lightning was plentiful again.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models really backed off any storms last night, but, once again, I was awaken to a strong storm at 4am.  Again, much of the area got nothing, but Cedar Rapids and Iowa City got hit... same as the previous night.  This time the storms moved more quickly, so the rain totals were lower.  I received a quick 0.45" and small hail.  Lightning was plentiful again.

I'm glad to hear of the recent hits...need some more of our members to get blessed!  Hopefully something happens Wed/Thu period.

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Things are really getting crispy here in C.IA especially the DSM area. .20" of rainfall since July 7th. We might today, but it's quite surprising that 100F has not been reached yet this summer with the very dry conditions. However dewpoints in the low 70's are not conducive to triple digit ambient temps here...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's gonna be a toasty one here today. Already 91 with a DP of 78 and a HI of 103. 

Originally thinking we were going to cross the century mark today but the morning AFD from NWS FSD didn't sound as confident with less than ideal mixing to bring those climatologically high 700mb/850mb temps down to the surface. Also seeing some cirrus overspread the area from a shortwave that should effect the region later this afternoon, as well as some smoke that will be coming in aloft from the fires in the Black Hills.

Add all that up and you still have a very hot day but not quite to the extreme as it looked like a couple days ago.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Things are really getting crispy here in C.IA especially the DSM area. .20" of rainfall since July 7th. We might today, but it's quite surprising that 100F has not been reached yet this summer with the very dry conditions. However dewpoints in the low 70's are not conducive to triple digit ambient temps here...

Didn't realize Des Moines was in the same boat as most of the Omaha metro (looking at the latest drought monitor I see it now).

Our areas just can't seem to buy a break from the lack of moisture - and now the excessive heat will be settling in to add insult to injury. 

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For what it's worth, the average daily max temperature has begun its decline in the northern part of the Country.  Looking at three places I've lived, the average daily max temp began declining on July 24th in Minneapolis.  In KC, it begins declining on August 8th.  In Dallas, it begins declining on August 15th. 

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. Current temp at 80F w tons of sunshine. Dew is at a very comfy 55F, along w a RH of 43% and wind coming outta the NNW at 8mph. Always good when there is a no "Realfeel."

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Well throw all those inhibitors out the window - FSD has recorded a new daily high temperature of 104 degrees as of 3PM, beating the previous record of 101 set in 1930 and 1936. This is the warmest temperature in Sioux Falls since 2012.

Also hit 104 at my personal weather station, which is good for the 2nd 100+ reading so far this summer. Hopefully it will also be the last of the summer!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Just finished mowing the yard. It is green and lush. I really don’t remember it looking this good on an August 2nd before. The dew is 74. I had so much sweat coming down my face that I had to stop and wipe it off. It was the sweat that just stings your eyes. Might be time for an adult beverage or many. 🍺 

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well throw all those inhibitors out the window - FSD has recorded a new daily high temperature of 104 degrees as of 3PM, beating the previous record of 101 set in 1930 and 1936. This is the warmest temperature in Sioux Falls since 2012.

Also hit 104 at my personal weather station, which is good for the 2nd 100+ reading so far this summer. Hopefully it will also be the last of the summer!

Might not be your last, hot pattern nationally doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere anytime soon. ☀️ 

Will probably have to wait for the seasonal changes in the mid latitude teleconnection to E-Hem/IO forcing, which happens in October.

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looks like the heat advisory in E.IA was a bust --

 

though humid-- just a typical summer day for ambient.

image.thumb.png.e7bfd57cbebc7a87de77676cb568197b.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Once again, the models had no clue in the LR of seeing cooler air around these parts.  This week will feature volatile weather with surges of warmth, mind you, it won't be as HOT as the models were suggesting earlier on.  I remember how much enthusiasm WGN was pumping on this weeks "so-called" Heat Wave.  The producer is a Hot weather fanatic and suggesting mid/upper 90s for days.  Nasso much anymore my friend!  Prob only hit 90F tomorrow before the CF comes through igniting severe storms.  

Anyway, the LR pattern looks to feature pretty good shot for some BN temps for the eastern CONUS.  @Phil might miss out on some nice late summer weather.  @Timmy Supercell might have to prepare for more flooding concerns.

0z EPS...Cool to Rule for Week 2???

image.gif

image.png

 

Man, the 0z Euro Control is pretty darn cool...it's been showing run-to-tun consistency, esp if the Greenland Blocking shows up and the +PNA pattern that ALL the models are locking onto.

image.png

3.png

 

You can pretty much see the eastern MW/OHV is in the bullseye of precip.... @Clintongreat news for the farmers...

image.png

I always miss good weather, lol.

Decent storm blew through back home last night. Totally unforecasted by CAMs/mesoscale models and the NWS.

DCA gusted to 52mph.

7784F570-18E2-4D87-A3FC-C35FA10DD2A1.jpeg

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

For what it's worth, the average daily max temperature has begun its decline in the northern part of the Country.  Looking at three places I've lived, the average daily max temp began declining on July 24th in Minneapolis.  In KC, it begins declining on August 8th.  In Dallas, it begins declining on August 15th. 

At least in my area, Mother Nature is saying "not so fast my friend" as it looks like the next 10 days will feature highs in the 90's and 100's (with multiple days of 95+). Unfortunately it doesn't look like there is any relief in sight for us out in the Central Plains.  

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30 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

At least in my area, Mother Nature is saying "not so fast my friend" as it looks like the next 10 days will feature highs in the 90's and 100's (with multiple days of 95+). Unfortunately it doesn't look like there is any relief in sight for us out in the Central Plains.  

I know.  Trying to make myself feel better.  Hopefully the law of averages will catch up to us.  

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

looks like the heat advisory in E.IA was a bust --

though humid-- just a typical summer day for ambient

Our high temp has been over-forecasted all summer.  We had two 90º highs in July.  The NWS and locals all had mid 90s today and were way off.  They all had 100º for Wednesday.  Now the NWS has upper 90s Saturday.  Ugh!  It is never that hot.  Stop forecasting it to be that hot.  Jeez.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 104F+ temps ( and  record heat wave in general) forecasted for C.IA is a bust, this - from 4-5 days out.  This includes omitting the horrible GFS ,This would be = to -15F  to -20F in the winter for lows , which is NEVER forecasted that far out apples to apples. Is there a bias in some NWS forecasts? You bet. And most lean too warm, esp summer here in IA. Still waiting on that 100F in DSM this summer which has been forecasted 6-7 times. Hmmm.. Gotta give the NWS credit though for calling out the GFS for it's 110-115F Al Gore like temps , but they are still too warm,, no records broken for heat this summer  ( KDSM) but the  local media makes it out to  be like 1936, not understanding what happened in 1936 with 15 consecutive days 100F or above. None yet in 2022. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Posted this over in the PNW thread with the old homies, but wanted to share here too with the new homies. 

Yesterday we welcomed Daisy as the newest member of our family. We will soon get to experience a SD winter for the first time together. 😊

IMG_20220802_181232.jpg

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Posted this over in the PNW thread with the old homies, but wanted to share here too with the new homies. 

Yesterday we welcomed Daisy as the newest member of our family. We will soon get to experience a SD winter for the first time together. 😊

IMG_20220802_181232.jpg

What a cute dog!  I’m sure she will enjoy the snow!

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