Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 2 days ago the 12z EPS had a similar placement of SLP down near N AR with a banana HP in southern Canada...keep an eye on where the highest heights are centered in Canada...just north of Lake Superior. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016012412/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png Today's 12z EPS run...similar placement of SLP in N AR/S MO. However, take a look where the highest heights are now...just north of the Dakotas and stronger. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016012612/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Big changes on 18z GFS. Why oh why do people still look at and fret over the 6 & 18z runs this far out!?! Haven't we all learned by now these are useless?! Or is it just me? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Tom, is it pretty unusual for a system to close off in the Rockies? I always remember bowling balls forming in the Plains. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Tom, is it pretty unusual for a system to close off in the Rockies? I always remember bowling balls forming in the Plains.I find systems closing off either when the AO/EPO is sky high or in the early Autumn or late Spring....certainly not in the heart of Winter, esp in this type of pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 This storm may in fact cut right over Chicago or just NW or just SE...it's becoming clear to me that if the storm cuts NE later it gives the lower lakes a shot at snow, if it cuts early, then it will be a western lakes storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 U guys are gonna drive yourself nuts on this one. The ensembles that are being referenced show a wide range of solutions which would be expected 180 hours out. Climo would argue against a hard cut but the airmass it is cutting.into is nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 The low is going to go through southern Missouri give or take 100 miles. Book it. Most of the models are showing this. It is always colder on the back end of these storms just like the last one. Pretty sure kc and Chicago will get slammed but I would not be surprised to see it further south. Models are already pushing it more south and we're still 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 The low is going to go through southern Missouri give or take 100 miles. Book it. Most of the models are showing this. It is always colder on the back end of these storms just like the last one. Pretty sure kc and Chicago will get slammed but I would not be surprised to see it further south. Models are already pushing it more south and we're still 7 days outLol at the reasoning. This storm could go south but it.wont be because they always do or because of some crazy cold airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 00z Euro Para...sorry, that was last nights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 DGEX! http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 of all the times, i hope somehow that model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Canadian Ensembles are currently indicating a further south track than what the GFS and Euro show. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/cmc_geps_amer_12/PNMPR_panel_168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 And the seldom referenced (and experimental) FIM model. I like this one. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016012612/236/totsn_sfc_f240.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 So which way is it? I've heard before that the LRC is helpful on determining WHEN a storm will come through, but not necessarily WHERE. Now I am seeing the LRC will also determine the path? So we should expect that the storm is going to dig way south because it did that on the last cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 closer view http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2016012612/t2/totsn_sfc_f240.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wow, we're busting out the FIM now! This is huge. Having the high banana out like that. Just shift the low over the boot heel of MO and it's perfect. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Faith restored? As typical if you haven't noticed I'm one to get exited or depressed over 1 run. 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 I love where I am at right now, but holding my breath. Being in the bullseye a week out is never good. Just hoping to see something. Southeast Nebraska will either be on northern or southern edge. Just hate sitting in the good spot this far out. We all know how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 So which way is it? I've heard before that the LRC is helpful on determining WHEN a storm will come through, but not necessarily WHERE. Now I am seeing the LRC will also determine the path? So we should expect that the storm is going to dig way south because it did that on the last cycle?The last 2 cycles it dug deep into AZ/NM, unlike the GFS is showing. It's true you can say that the LRC is a good tool to predict a storm during a certain time period. In this situation, teleconnections are almost identical from previous cycles except the EPO is slightly negative during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any runI don't know if you are referring to me but I'm just posting what the models are showing. No wishing or rooting, just facts. Besides isn't "rooting" the fun part? Why would anyone here want their area to just miss out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Terry swails is a meteorologist for cbs 2 in Cedar Rapids. I just read a Facebook post of his. He really loves snow, wow. He says he fears the heaviest snow will miss our area just to the north. But he admits that is just speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wasn't talking about you but these models will change so it's no point in people getting upset at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wasn't talking about you but these models will change so it's no point in people getting upset at this pointNo doubt. I all seriousness it could be anywhere from congrats brainerd to congrats indy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 By Thursday night or Friday we should be getting a much better understanding and narrow down the track more as we'll be getting under 100 ish hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 So many people wish casting and rooting for something that is so far away and can change on any runI'm all about model interpretation this far out and deciphering the differences among them even though it is over 120 hours out. It makes it fun trying to see which one had it right very early in the game. This season, I have made several calls of storms cutting NW of here or right over Chicago. For this particular storm, I feel a bit different about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 DGEX! That's not as ridiculous as it usually is. I could see 20" amounts with this storm somewhere. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 That's not as ridiculous as it usually is. I could see 20" amounts with this storm somewhere.Lol been.awhile since we have seen a swath of snow.anywhere near that wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yesterday's 12z JMA compared to today's run... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012512/jma_T850_namer_9.png vs...today's 12z run...big difference in HP in western Canada and the northern plains... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012612/jma_T850_namer_8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 I'm all about model interpretation this far out and deciphering the differences among them even though it is over 120 hours out. It makes it fun trying to see which one had it right very early in the game. This season, I have made several calls of storms cutting NW of here or right over Chicago. For this particular storm, I feel a bit different about it.I agree but saying a model is going to be wrong or right is dumb when it's this far out . All models need to be considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Local met posted this. This looks to be a map from NOAA.http://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/1-506x250.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 I agree but saying a model is going to be wrong or right is dumb when it's this far out . All models need to be consideredI was basically giving my 2 cents on each model's interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Saying the ggem will stay put and euro to trend SE is wish casting IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Saying the ggem will stay put and euro to trend SE is wish casting IMOLook at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Look at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right???If the ggem locks in at this range that would be a surprise. It will jump around. Might come eventually back to where it is but it wont lock at this range. And ensembles mean should be somewhat south and east at this range as well right? This thread is going to be very long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Look at the EPS members...stark difference in operational vs ensemble...right???Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etcEPS has shifted SE each day almost since 2 days ago...been watching them... If the ggem locks in at this range that would be a surprise. It will jump around. Might come eventually back to where it is but it wont lock at this range. And ensembles mean should be somewhat south and east at this range as well right? This thread is going to be very long....Not always....and...I agree....get ready for the ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Known euro bias at this range is almost always north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ensembles should always be SE at this time frame because there will be members that don't have the storm etc But sometimes you have multiple members NW and that would pull the mean NW. If there is no storm, then those solutions won't be factored into the track. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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