GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Money]

riding that edge.

 

9 here while one county south is 1-2

[ToastedRavs]

GS back SE by quite a bit

Agreed. Compared to the 0z from last night, band in Iowa shifted 25 to 40 miles southeast. Tonight's 0z runs will be first fully sampled run...that's the key model runs to pay attention to. Still a good spread the wealth system

[Money]

12z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/12Z/f078/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

6z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/06Z/f084/acckucherasnowmw.png

[WBadgersW]

riding that edge.

 

9 here while one county south is 1-2

 

Im that county lol

 

I need another 50-75 miles SE to be able to breath. 

[Money]

Looks like it tracks between Milwaukee and Chicago:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/12Z/f060/sfcmw.png

 

Compared to:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/06Z/f066/sfcmw.png

[SnowO]

It's not Nebraska crowd, it's Snowlover that's doing all the whining!! It's getting old

[hlcater]

Barely on the good side of the GFS' nasty r/s line. However, I think there could be a chance that the GFS may be overdoing the warm air slightly. It has been all season esp. Dec. 28th and in DC. Does this hold up guys?

[jcwxguy]

closer look

[Tom]

Been a while since I've seen NE/IA/S MN under Blizzard Watches.  Congrats to you guys out there.  Latest trends are not looking good for S/C WI.  MKE/MSN region might get shafted and also parts of S/E IA.  That rain/snow line is nasty.

[Geos]

Im that county lol

 

I need another 50-75 miles SE to be able to breath. 

 

Sounds good.

 

I would agree the GFS is the outlier right now still.

[ToastedRavs]

Canadian a carbon copy of itself through 21 hours. Surface low near Vegas, baby

[hlcater]

Even though the GFS is the outlier DVN still factored it and brought the r/s line northward to agree with it, except DVN's r/s line isn't as shard as the GFS would have it.

[Money]

Been a while since I've seen NE/IA/S MN under Blizzard Watches. Congrats to you guys out there. Latest trends are not looking good for S/C WI. MKE/MSN region might get shafted and also parts of S/E IA. That rain/snow line is nasty.

Wut

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.png

[jcwxguy]

(rain/snow map not updated)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_ncus_9.png

[jcwxguy]

rain/snow map not updated

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016013112/gem_mslp_pcpn_ncus_11.png

[Money]

Gem gives snow to Chicago

[Tom]

Wut

Your prob sitting just north of the rain/snow line.  I'm talking about Madison/MKE area...I think this warm tongue is going to push north and be to close for comfort around there.

[Iowa2015]

I'm like two country away from 10+ inches hope once sampled it moves s.e

One inches on that map unreal

[Tom]

Gem gives snow to Chicago

Prob minimal front end snows.  What good does that do when it will melt from all the rain???

[Money]

Your prob sitting just north of the rain/snow line. I'm talking about Madison/MKE area...I think this warm tongue is going to push north and be to close for comfort around there.

GEM gives southern wi 4-6 even around msn and mke

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/KuoXgoS.gif

[Scott26]

Central Iowa is under a Blizzard Watch for 8-12 inches and sustained winds from 25 to 35 gusting over 40 mph. I'm thinking that my classes will definitely be canceled on Tuesday and maybe even some morning classes Wednesday if conditions are still bad due to blowing snow.

[gosaints]

Money is now off the nw train. Tom is on... Money should be fine

[WBadgersW]

IMO Milwaukee still has a chance at getting 6+, a small chance, but nevertheless a chance. I may be giving the past trends too much credit, but I can see this bleeding SE and being colder than expected.

[Geos]

Your prob sitting just north of the rain/snow line.  I'm talking about Madison/MKE area...I think this warm tongue is going to push north and be to close for comfort around there.

 

Even the EURO showed Milwaukee and Madison some snow love last night. WAA is over done on the maps usually.

 

Prob minimal front end snows.  What good does that do when it will melt from all the rain???

 

 

Boosts your seasonal total.

[Tony]

Canadian giving nw IL 11" and several out this way. Not sure about that.

[Money]

Money is now off the nw train. Tom is on... Money should be fine

Still think it can go nw but gfs trending south this run kind of calm my nerves a little bit

 

Would suck tracking this storm so long and missing out on the heavy stuff by a county or two lol

[Tom]

GEM gives southern wi 4-6 even around msn and mke

That's an odd looking snowfall map...snow shield cuts NE in the Plains...due east over IA...then NE over the Lakes...

[Money]

It's also funny how tom mentions the warm tounge now when he didn't when the models were showing him with snow

[Tom]

It's also funny how tom mentions the warm tounge now when he didn't when the models were showing him with snow

How is that funny???  The op/ensembles are showing a track darn close to being over Chicago.  Many of the EPS members show the freezing line just north of MKE.  

[Tom]

It's also funny how tom mentions the warm tounge now when he didn't when the models were showing him with snow

That was also nearly 2 days ago.  Things have changed since then.

[ToastedRavs]

One thing to note is the Canadian is slower. 12z GFS has low centered in n. Central Missouri at 18z Tues. The Canadian at same time has it over southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri

[CentralNebWeather]

Talked to our superintendent at church. Said Tuesday will be an easy call for no school. I think most of the state will shut down. He said it is tomorrow afternoon he is worried about. When will it start should practices be cancelled. Then he said Wednesday we won't know until we see the aftermath and are roads and lots cleared for safety of all. Not easy decisions because some will be mad regardless. I told him if it is anywhere close to what is predicted he won't have to worry

[Money]

That was also nearly 2 days ago. Things have changed since then.

What changed ?

[WBadgersW]

Is this storm going to be fully sampled by tonights runs?

[ToastedRavs]

Is this storm going to be fully sampled by tonights runs?

0z runs tonight, yes. Will have to see how it initialized too. It's been a loooonng time coming....at least it seems that way

[james1976]

I like where Im at. Local met has 8-12 for me with isolated 15". Blizzard Watch issued.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM 4km has me between 14-17"

 

12Z 

[WBadgersW]

0z runs tonight, yes. Will have to see how it initialized too. It's been a loooonng time coming....at least it seems that way

Thanks