GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[Tony]

 

I'm a little concerned about how much convection is being depicted. It could rob areas further north of snow.

 

Here is the 4km NAM snowfall.

Showing convective snow tracks out ahead of this system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016013118/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png[/quote

That's always the case with these strong systems. On the other hand, thunderstorms can also feed into the cold sector enhancing snowfall rates so a nice tradeoff I think

[CentralNebWeather]

There it is blizzard warning

[Tom]

 

I'm a little concerned about how much convection is being depicted. It could rob areas further north of snow.

 

Here is the 4km NAM snowfall.

Showing convective snow tracks out ahead of this system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016013118/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png[/quote

That's always the case with these strong systems. On the other hand, thunderstorms can also feed into the cold sector enhancing snowfall rates so a nice tradeoff I think

Agree, I think this storm is strong enough to wrap those thunderstorms into the cold sector.  I think we will see a nice trowal signature.

[Iowa2015]

Those stripes  of  purple  are  strange 

 

I'm a little concerned about how much convection is being depicted. It could rob areas further north of snow.

 

Here is the 4km NAM snowfall.

Showing convective snow tracks out ahead of this system.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016013118/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png

[WBadgersW]

18Z RGEM has some good frontal snow here

[Iowa2015]

Still think we got a chance over  east/south east Iowa

[WBadgersW]

[Geos]

rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png

 

Just saw that, interesting.

I've had luck with that model for several winters now.

 

Just need to make sure the convection feeds north as opposed to NE or ENE.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f036/sfcconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f039/sfcconus.png

[gabel23]

OAX waiting until tonight's run before they hoist their warnings....I also seen Des Moines trimmed back their Blizzard watch. 

 

EXPECT MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY

TUESDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD/NWWD WITH TIME WITHIN THE EVOLVING
DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE MATURING SYNOPTIC CYCLONE. GRADIENT FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY THROUGH THE
DAY...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AND WHILE
SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING DRIFTING.

SINCE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
CA COAST...THE 00Z MODELS SHOULD HAVE A LARGER QUANTITY OF RELEVANT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE FOR ASSIMILATION. AS SUCH...WE WILL
DEFER ANY POTENTIAL BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO LATER SHIFTS WHEN
CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK /AND ATTENDING DRY SLOT/ IS MORE
CERTAIN.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f042/sfcconus.png

[jcwxguy]

dry air punch

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f042/700mbrhconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f048/sfcconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f054/sfcconus.png

[Geos]

GFS unwavering.

 

[jcwxguy]

someone is gonna freak out

 

just remember, 18z gfs did this yesterday also..only to go back south for 00z

[Snowlover76]

D**n that went way NW 

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f060/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

God that is one sharp cutoff in my county

[Money]

D**n that went way NW

What...

[WBadgersW]

Well looks like I'll be riding the RGEM

[Snowlover76]

What...

it did.  I get like 5-6" now 

[gabel23]

The important thing to watch is tonight's run, it will have the full upper air support. 

[hlcater]

DVN added Iowa County to their watch. Hm. 

[Money]

it did. I get like 5-6" now

It barely went NW

[GDR]

Still think we got a chance over east/south east Iowa

whats your thoughts?

[Iowa2015]

Models  all over the place This may end up being a now cast with surprised  & heartbroken  peeps

[Money]

Models all over the place This may end up being a now cast with surprised & heartbroken peeps

Models have been consistent as can be lol

[Snowlover76]

It barely went NW

yea it did

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/12Z/f078/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160131/18Z/f060/acckucherasnowmw.png

[CentralNebWeather]

18z gfs

 

[hlcater]

Surprising that the 06-18z runs have been far NW than the 12-00z runs. This one did not slide NW asthe previous runs did, therefore increasing confidence where they need it most, the placement of the rain/snow line. 

[Money]

It moved literally like one county

[ToastedRavs]

Again, as I have said numerous times. Can someone explain why they put any merit into the 6 & 18z runs!?! I know it's closer now but they are not the best performing. Wait for the 0z and 12z runs tonight and tomorrow to have your meltdown

[Snowlover76]

Again, as I have said numerous times. Can someone explain why they put any merit into the 6 & 18z runs!?! I know it's closer now but they are not the best performing. Wait for the 0z and 12z runs tonight and tomorrow to have your meltdown

That's a myth. The 6z and 18z are just as good

[clintbeed1993]

That's a myth. The 6z and 18z are just as good

 

No they aren't.  They don't take in upper air data.

[ToastedRavs]

That's a myth. The 6z and 18z are just as good

 

You sir, are wrong. Any meteorologist will tell you that

[Snowlover76]

No they aren't. They don't take in upper air data.

I was told by a met that they do.

[ToastedRavs]

I was told by a met that they do.

I wouldn't trust that met ever again then. If he/she doesn't know that they need to go back to freshman class in meteorology 101

[jcwxguy]

I thought they were going to be doing special launches for this storm