Phil Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Please delete this, thanks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 It's not that simple..the eastern troughing exists for a reason. Look the forcing agents driving the current hemispheric circulation. So you'll be looking at various stratospheric, tropical, and solar induced perturbations. The western ridging does not hinge on the existence of an eastern trough. If anything, it's the other way around, given the pacific is upstream. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z isn't bad. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 The Canadian is going the wrong direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Me. 50% chance we have some weak troughing for about a week followed by 3 more weeks of ridging...You are almost insufferable lately. Must be a foothills thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Unbridled pessimism and unbridled optimism are both intellectually dishonest. But unbridled pessimism is a heck of a lot more grating. Too bad more people can't make middle ground posts here. I notice that's how most pro-mets post... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?Not me. It's going through its initial fits and starts as models get a hold on things. I guess if you were "impressed" by anything the models were spitting out beyond 240 hours at some point that's your deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Unbridled pessimism and unbridled optimism are both intellectually dishonest. But unbridled pessimism is a heck of a lot more grating. Too bad more people can't make middle ground posts here. I notice that's how most pro-mets post...The models are trending towards a pattern similar to January, but at least the sun will come up tomorrow. Will that work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 The models are trending towards a pattern similar to January, but at least the sun will come up tomorrow. Will that work? No, because the first part of the sentence is an out and out falsehood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"? I am feeling less impressed for the pattern change that was advertised for the end of January time frame. It is kind of looking like we might end up weakening the ridge and ending up with some weakening splitty type systems for the first while. I think a more consolidated pattern change will come, but probably not till the second week of February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z op/ensembles both seem pretty solid on a quick breakdown of the ridge and a chilly, wet pattern. Not sure where all this talk of the ridge sticking around and split flow is coming from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Some of the ensembles look good but the mean is splitty.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_12z/f192.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro still sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Euro still sucks. http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/img/dr_lizardo/2014/01/15/DeskFlip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks to me like at this point the obvious thing to take away from all this is that something is very likely to happen at some point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?Me, and it's starting to look like "what pattern change?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks to me like at this point the obvious thing to take away from all this is that something is very likely to happen at some point. I think you're really reaching here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think you're really reaching here. I'll end up right. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Late-early to early-mid February. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Late-early to early-mid February. You're on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Late-early to early-mid February. Chances are high for measurable precipitation by February 28th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Late-early to early-mid February.Assuming you're being serious, I'm thinking our best shot will be in that time frame as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Assuming you're being serious, I'm thinking our best shot will be in that time frame as well. I believe it comes down to about 66 hours. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z looks pretty good in the long range...To bad the timing really hasn't been moving up at all. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 18z looks pretty good in the long range...To bad the timing really hasn't been moving up at all.Yep. Exactly nice modified arctic front. Yeah, timing hasn't changed and I don't believe the GFS as far as I can throw it. I don't know how much the GFS weighs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yep. Exactly nice modified arctic front. Yeah, timing hasn't changed and I don't believe the GFS as far as I can throw it. I don't know how much the GFS weighs.The problem is that a week ago it was showing this "pattern change" out around 240 hours. Still is...I'd like to see the timing move up. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 I love all the good stuff that is consistently showing up after the resolution change. Too bad it isn't true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 A pattern change is imminent. No way the endless fog and spring-ness will continue for the whole month of February. I do worry that it will result in a more dreary pattern, but that will likely be mountain snow and that sure will be welcome. We've been spoiled for most of this winter in terms of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 22, 2014 Report Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't trust many deterministic runs outside 7 days right now, but the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), has moved up timing significantly for precipitation.NAEFS basics:Array of physically plausible forecasts (NCEP and CMC) usedLower resolution than GFS/GEM (drops to about 100 km vs. GFS 45km)Model uncertainty is only included in the CMC EPS, via model physicsLow resolutions 'controls' are run along with the many other runs that were perturbed. Control run uses same initialization as deterministic GFS/GEM, just lower resolutionEDIT: How can I add a photo using these forums? I wanted to attach a photo of an EPSgram, showing the predicted PDX precip. If someone could help, that would be excellent. When I select image, the address provided wasn't accepted. Thanks guys. Figured it out. I use these quite often on my blog, as I find them the most accurate up to 10 days out. Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't trust many deterministic runs outside 7 days right now, but the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), has moved up timing significantly for precipitation.NAEFS basics:Array of physically plausible forecasts (NCEP and CMC) usedLower resolution than GFS/GEM (drops to about 100 km vs. GFS 45km)Model uncertainty is only included in the CMC EPS, via model physicsLow resolutions 'controls' are run along with the many other runs that were perturbed. Control run uses same initialization as deterministic GFS/GEM, just lower resolutionEDIT: How can I add a photo using these forums. I wanted to attach a photo of an EPSgram, showing the predicted PDX precip. If someone could help, that would be excellent. When I select image, the address provided wasn't accepted. Use a site to upload the image to, such as http://tinypic.com/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 If the header of the reply text box is operational it should work by just copy and paste. If the header is grayed (not operational) just click on the little icon in the upper left of the header to activate the header then your copy and paste should work. You may get a notice asking if you want to allow a webpage to access your computer, if so just click yes. At least that works for me. Edit: If I could delete this I would after seeing the previous post. His method is probably better than mine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Looking better http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 18z ensembles look good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Surprised by a little rain last night into this morning. Not that I should have been if I had been studying the models, but no point looking at precipitation forecasts if almost none is forecast. .08" total so a real soaker. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Surprised by a little rain last night into this morning. Not that I should have been if I had been studying the models, but no point looking at precipitation forecasts if almost none is forecast. .08" total so a real soaker.Yep, we had a little rain last night around my location as well. I was was over in Moses Lake yesterday and it was quite drizzly, wasn't expecting that either. The Ensembles are looking quite good, and the PNA forecast is still calling for a moderate tank by the first of the month. Very encouraging stuff!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 While it still appears that we'll see a switch to cooler/stormier conditions around the beginning of Feb, I'm not sure what kind of intensity to expect. The PNA ridge gets broken down thanks to the lack of convection over the tropical pacific. No convection results in no support for an extended north pacific jet stream, which has been the cause of the repetitive pattern over the US. Signs are pointing to the 2nd half of February showing potential as we'll have the MJO back over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent regions. http://i39.tinypic.com/21b4y13.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep, we had a little rain last night around my location as well. I was was over in Moses Lake yesterday and it was quite drizzly, wasn't expecting that either. The Ensembles are looking quite good, and the PNA forecast is still calling for a moderate tank by the first of the month. Very encouraging stuff!!You have a great avatar! I just noticed the Seahawk in the photo. Very clever, whoever created that scene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/ F***ing awesome! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 23, 2014 Report Share Posted January 23, 2014 Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month. Indeed. Looks like Super Sunday may be the inflection point (at least by the GFS). The Euro says it will change by hour 216. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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