Skagit Weather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 2011-12 had a pretty significant snow / ice event. I'm certain things are going to be much different next month. The models are screaming much above normal heights over Alaska and the Aleutians. I think we could easily make up for all of the dullness we have seen thus far.That is why I said the last two years. Even if we go exactly two years back we would be after that mid-January cold snap, but I understand what you are saying. I don't think that snow event was good enough to make up for 1 year of dullness, let alone two. December 2008 certainly made '09-'10 more bearable, but even that event wouldn't really be able to carry over two winters. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 In other discussion, hit 47F here today which was a few degrees cooler than yesterday's 51F. Yesterday was actually the first day since the rain of a couple weeks ago that I had been above 50F. Pretty lame low temperature of only 32F this morning, but yesterday was below freezing. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 He'll joke it off later. It's kind of nice you can't delete your own posts here. True colors a little more vivid. He can still edit his post to say something totally different and unrelated. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 1600s/early 1700s were obscenely cold. There has been a ton of paleoclimatological research done on this matter..so when I get home I'll try to dig it up.No pun intended? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at the 18z ensemble for Seattle I counted 12 members that had 850mb temps drop to -10 or lower and 6 or 7 that went above zero during the period in question. Clearly a good run. If the warm members are indeed bogus the mean would have been amazing. Even with the warm ensemble members the mean was still a good deal colder than the operational. But I can't talk about that kind of stuff. Pointing out anything good is inherently unrealistic. Pessimism is the new realism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 -6 today at PDX! Maybe we're not as due as we think... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 He can still edit his post to say something totally different and unrelated. Once it gets quoted you're kinda screwed. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 A fairly chilly 45-26 IMBY today. I think even SEA finally had a below normal day. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 A fairly chilly 45-26 IMBY today. I think even SEA finally had a below normal day. 36/29 here. The wind has really picked up this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 That is why I said the last two years. Even if we go exactly two years back we would be after that mid-January cold snap, but I understand what you are saying. I don't think that snow event was good enough to make up for 1 year of dullness, let alone two. December 2008 certainly made '09-'10 more bearable, but even that event wouldn't really be able to carry over two winters. I think one of the big stories being missed in all of this is we are getting Arctic outbreaks on a fairly regular basis now. It's simply bad luck we haven't done better for snowfall. If you look at the period Jan 1999 through Jan 2006 there was only one bona fide Arctic blast in that entire period. We have had four since Dec 2008 plus the weaker one that brought substantial snowfall in Jan 2012. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 39/28 here today. Thick fog since last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was pointing it out because the GFS ensembles are clearly beginning to divide into two camps in the long range. There are a lot more cold members, but also a lot more warm ones. There really aren't any members around the mean, on the 18z ensembles it was either cold or mild really out in the long range. You can point out all the cold members and ignore the warmer solutions if you want. That is the individual prerogative. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Even SEA had a minus 3 today. It's almost impossible for them to average below normal with the new runway or whatever their problem is. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I was pointing it out because the GFS ensembles are clearly beginning to divide into two camps in the long range. There are a lot more cold members, but also a lot more warm ones. There really aren't any members around the mean, on the 18z ensembles it was either cold or mild really out in the long range. You can point out all the cold members and ignore the warmer solutions if you want. That is the individual prerogative. Are you new here? All bad signs will be completely ignored by some... until it becomes painfully obvious that we still have to deal with reality. That is what happened with January. Eventually something good will happen and then it will be justified to continue like that for another 2 years. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Even SEA had a minus 3 today. It's almost impossible for them to average below normal with the new runway or whatever their problem is. Shallow layer of low level moisture to due weakened offshore flow last night. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like SLE had 51/24 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like SLE had 51/24 today. Pleasant 55 here... we were outside all day. Here is my son shooting hoops in North Bend this afternoon: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Are you new here? All bad signs will be completely ignored by some... until it becomes painfully obvious that we still have to deal with reality. That is what happened with January. Eventually something good will happen and then it will be justified to continue like that for another 2 years. How long are we going to play this tune? The "some" you refer to are Jim and Jesse, nobody else that I know of. Why not just let them be and move on. You kept beating on Jim days after he's stopped posting. Can't you let it go? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z CFS has really backed off on the cold idea until at least mid month. On the other hand, it's the CFS and it flips and flops daily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 How long are we going to play this tune? The "some" you refer to are Jim and Jesse, nobody else that I know of. Why not just let them be and move on. You kept beating on Jim days after he's stopped posting. Can't you let it go? I would love to... they keep ridiculing everyone who posts anything other than great news. Calling an honest discussion 'depressing'. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here is something interesting... it will rain on Tuesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here is something interesting... it will rain on Tuesday.Nice call... pessimist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nice call... pessimist. Realist. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The reason I'm seeming to be unrealistic is because I'm so sure the cold will happen. I admit I was wrong about early January, but was right about the December event. 50/50 so far. The cold snap next month will make it 67/33. There is much stronger model consensus about the upcoming event than there was for the January one.. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not everyone will agree with your views on the weather, model runs, taste in pizza, so let it go. If you find them to be pessimistic or overly optimistic, and know that calling them out wont do much, then ignore them.I completely agree, although maybe this forum needs an argument to survive. With the complete absence of the rain scapegoat to stir up emotions, people have decided to argue about whether pessimism, optimism, or realism are most needed to survive the current dullness. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I completely agree, although maybe this forum needs an argument to survive. With the complete absence of the rain scapegoat to stir up emotions, people have decided to argue about whether pessimism, optimism, or realism are most needed to survive the current dullness. Not at all. I have clearly stated the reason I have gotten so defensive is because of the winter cancel statements which began in early Jan. Simply ridiculous. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 The reason I'm seeming to be unrealistic is because I'm so sure the cold will happen. I admit I was wrong about early January, but was right about the December event. 50/50 so far. The cold snap next month will make it 67/33. There is much stronger model consensus about the upcoming event than there was for the January one.. Seems pretty obvious there will be some type of cold spell. Not sure that means you will be shoveling snow though. But talking about all the signs... good and bad... should be encouraged. Why does this forum have to exist just to soothe your mind and support every theory you have? An early event usually means a late event... particularly in a neutral winter. Not really an amazing prediction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not at all. I have clearly stated the reason I have gotten so defensive is because of the winter cancel statements which began in early Jan. Simply ridiculous.It's not that ridiculous. It's just as ridiculous as saying we're overdue for a cold/snowy February. Isn't it. Try to look at everything objectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 White out conditions across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Schools closed until Wednesday at least. Its pretty interesting reading all about it on facebook when you know so many people there. Would not want to be there this winter. Its been so much nicer here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Enough of all that....00z GFS begins soon00z GEM in 1 1/2 hours00z EURO 3 hours 25 minutesTry to focus all of your mind power on good, positive runs? Sounds like a bunch of BS I know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Time for some humor.... http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/01/polar-vortex-causes-hundreds-of-injuries-as-people-making-snide-remarks-about-climate-change-are-pun.html?mobify=0 The so-called polar vortex caused hundreds of injuries across the Midwest today, as people who said “so much for global warming” and similar comments were punched in the face. “I’d just finished saying it and boom, out of nowhere someone punched me in the face,” he said. “This polar vortex is really dangerous.”----------------------------------------------------------------------------------LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would still take this winter over last year that featured nothing except a fog inversion last January. At least this fall/winter featured one of the wettest Septembers, an arctic blast that was unfortunately dry but I had a single digit low temp and several days below freezing for highs. And a nice 4" snowstorm before Christmas. And February will most likely be colder and more active than January. I tend to be a more positive person by nature so when the models are divided I will always pick the ones that look better and not bother commenting on the bad ones. Some people are just more negative by nature so they will always point out the bad side of things (models that look like crap) first which is fine also. Its what keeps the forum lively I guess. BUT I get this feeling that a few people are just posting the negative to get the reaction and attention of others which is a bit annoying. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would still take this winter over last year that featured nothing except a fog inversion last January. At least this fall/winter featured one of the wettest Septembers, an arctic blast that was unfortunately dry but I had a single digit low temp and several days below freezing for highs. And a nice 4" snowstorm before Christmas. And February will most likely be colder and more active than January. I tend to be a more positive person by nature so when the models are divided I will always pick the ones that look better and not bother commenting on the bad ones. Some people are just more negative by nature so they will always point out the bad side of things (models that look like crap) first which is fine also. Its what keeps the forum lively I guess. BUT I get this feeling that a few people are just posting the negative to get the reaction and attention of others which is a bit annoying.I hope not. That's no way for Adults to conduct themselves. Kids or teenagers, I guess, but no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 White out conditions across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Schools closed until Wednesday at least. Its pretty interesting reading all about it on facebook when you know so many people there. Would not want to be there this winter. Its been so much nicer here. I would pay big money to have that weather here. I hate the sun in winter. Unless there is 2ft of snow. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would pay big money to have that weather here. I hate the sun in winter. Unless there is 2ft of snow. They have lots of sun during the winter... it was even sunny today there with white out conditions at times. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I asked my daughter what she thought about everyone bickering about nothing... 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I would pay big money to have that weather here. I hate the sun in winter. Unless there is 2ft of snow. I guess you don't want to move to NE BC then. They have something like 2,000+ hours of Sun in the Winter, but it's really cold most of the Winter. Most days it's below 0 F up there. They also get some Snow from time to time, but it's mostly fluffy and light if anything, and it almost never leaves. Edit: I think the 2,000+ hours if for the year. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/forecasts/statistics/suncloud/cl1183000/cabc0102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I guess you don't want to move to NE BC then. They have something like 2,000+ hours of Sun in the Winter, but it's really cold most of the Winter. Most days it's below 0 F up there. They also get some Snow from time to time, but it's mostly fluffy and light if anything, and it almost never leaves. Edit: I think the 2,000+ hours if for the year. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/forecasts/statistics/suncloud/cl1183000/cabc0102 I linked to this video from there... fun stuff. And they talk about the sun quieting down like it did in the 1600s. How ironic. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/active-weather-system-that-just-wont-quit/sharevideo/3110269456001 That would actually be a disaster for life as we know it... don't think we really want that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 I asked my daughter what she thought about everyone bickering about nothing... She sayin' I need a binky and a bottle?.... them are fightin' words! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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