January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

They're.

 

And they were. You are just trying to get a rise out of people. Bainbridgekid did a great job of combating your BS earlier, luckily.

 

Not sure how.   Its not BS.     There is a significant change around 2/5.    

 

And that is a rare grammar error on my part.     Spending time uploading maps!  

[TT-SEA]

iFred's not on right now. You can peel your lips from his behind.

 

[Jesse]

It's pretty clear it will at least get cold.

 

Agreed, there is a strong signal. Freaking out over it being dry at this point seems absurd, though. Small scale stuff won't start even coming into focus for a few days, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says Jesse gets some snow tonight...

 

I want some snow for once...

[TT-SEA]

How cold were the 850mb temps during the first week of February of 1989?

 

How long did the cold air aloft last?

 

And how did we get so much snow going in?

 

 

THAT is the definition of a memorable event.    So completely different than just cold and sunny with a bare ground which is completely forgettable.  

[Jesse]

Mark Nelsen says Jesse gets some snow tonight...

 

I want some snow for once...

Wait, what?

 

I was just expecting ZR. Figured the cold air is too shallow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Whatever.   February 5th is 47 days past the winter solstice.      

 

Its different than December.

 

But if we have clouds and precip there should be very little difference.   Big 'IF' right now.

 

Sunshine with an 850mb temp of -15C, bare ground, and strong outflow produces upper 30s and low 40s in February in Seattle.     That is a fact.    

 

It was 42 today at SEA under that endless inversion.

NOT A FACT. -15C?!!!

[bainbridgekid]

How cold were the 850mb temps during the first week of February of 1989?

 

How long did the cold air aloft last?

 

And how did we get so much snow going in?

 

 

THAT is the definition of a memorable event.    So completely different than just cold and sunny with a bare ground which is completely forgettable.  

850's bottomed out a little below -20 on the morning of the 3rd.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/020309.png

 

And 850mb temps were below -10 from the evening of 1/31 till the morning of the 5th.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131j5.php

 

Hell of an event.

[TT-SEA]

NOT A FACT. -15C?!!!

 

SEA was at -15C in February of 2006 and it was in the upper 30s and low 40s with sunshine.    Even if it was of shorter duration... really cold air came in on strong outflow.   

 

I remember it well.    

[TT-SEA]

850's bottomed out a little below -20 on the morning of the 3rd.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/020309.png

 

And 850mb temps were below -10 from the evening of 1/31 till the morning of the 5th.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131j5.php

 

Hell of an event.

 

 

Was there a low that bought all the snow??    Or was it an arctic front?

[BLI snowman]

We will be about 47 days past the winter solstice when this event peaks.   

 

Back up from December 20th and you back in early November.      By February 9th... its comparable to late October sun angle.   Which is why events after February 5th become much more rare.   Very rare actually.    Jim will point to one day or another... but there is a big change around 2/5 and it has to do with sun angle.   

 

I remember having this discussion endlessly in 2006... and it was not really that cold during the day in the sunshine.    Exception being Lynden and Ferndale.  

 

We want wetter and maybe warmer solutions!     Trust me... just cold is only going to satisfy one person on here.  

 

Dude, significant events after 2/5 aren't that rare. Not especially common per se, but they happen a few times per decade on average. You're acting like February is a full-on spring month. It isn't, and in some years February is still a full-on winter month.

 

The distant past (1956, 1936, or 1923) has shown that even mid February can still bring exceptional cold and snow to the area when the right opportunity presents itself.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, significant events after 2/5 aren't that rare. Not especially common per se, but they happen a few times per decade on average. You're acting like February is a full-on spring month. It isn't, and in some years February is still a full-on winter month.

 

The distant past (1956, 1936, or 1923) has shown that mid February can still bring ex

 

Exceptional cold and snow to the area when the right opportunity presents itself.

 

 

Not at all.    With clouds and precip... it can be epic.    You don't have to go back to 1956... just look at 1989.

 

If this is another sunny, dry cold snap then it will be very disappointing.      Hopefully it will work out like 1989... could still happen.    Makes me very excited just thinking about it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mr. Nelsen says:

 

Watch out in the Gorge Tonight!

I expect 1-3" snow east of Bonneville Dam (C. Locks, Hood River, The Dalles) beginning sometime after midnight, then it'll turn to freezing rain. It may be a mix of freezing rain and snow instead. Tough call. It's cold enough that it should freeze some on I-84 too. Freezing rain is possible as close to the metro area as Corbett once the moisture arrives around midnight or later. The strong east wind will finally end Tuesday afternoon too. It should stay just above freezing at Troutdale, Camas, and Gresham, although it'll be a 34-35 degree rain by sunrise. Brrr!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was there a low that bought all the snow??    Or was it an arctic front?

 

I know most of the Willamette Valley had 6-10" of snow with isolated 12" amounts. I think Silverton had 11" with the arctic front.

[BLI snowman]

Not at all.    With clouds and precip... it can be epic.    You don't have to go back to 1956... just look at 1989.

 

If this is another sunny, dry cold snap then it will be very disappointing.      Hopefully it will work out like 1989... could still happen.    Makes me very excited just thinking about it.  

 

Or 1990, or 1993, or 1995. All 3 of those Februaries brought pretty great snowstorms to Portland and Seattle.

 

SEA on 2/17/1990

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ksea/1990/2/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

PDX on 2/19/1993

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1993/2/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

PDX on 2/12/1995

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1995/2/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Strong offshore flow with subfreezing highs. These don't look like late October events to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 19, 1993 was a great February event. February 12-14, 1995 was pretty decent too, especially considering outside of those 3 days the month absolutely torched.

[TT-SEA]

Or 1990, or 1993, or 1995. All 3 of those Februaries brought pretty great snowstorms to Portland and Seattle.

 

SEA on 2/17/1990

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ksea/1990/2/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

PDX on 2/19/1993

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1993/2/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

PDX on 2/12/1995

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/1995/2/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Strong offshore flow with subfreezing highs. These don't look like late October events to me.

 

 

If its dry and sunny... it will feel like it.   

 

Potential is there if we can finally drag some moisture in with the cold air.     Eugene did it.    Bellingham and Seattle should be able to this time.   

[BLI snowman]

If its dry and sunny... it will feel like it.   

 

Potential is there if we can finally drag some moisture in with the cold air.     Eugene did it.    Bellingham and Seattle should be able to this time.   

 

Yes, a lot of it comes down to mesoscale dynamics like that, but that's true in January or December as well. It goes without saying that dry, backdoor cold pushes are kind of underwhelming from a weather awesomeness standpoint. 

 

Point is that early and mid February have shown a propensity to deliver plenty of nice events, so you don't need to try and downplay things from a climo standpoint. And it's way too early to be freaking out about mesoscale or synoptic scale things like low and CZ placement. That kind of stuff doesn't get sorted out until 12-24 hours beforehand. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wish Flatiron still posted in here. Now would be the time he talked about how 2-19-93 was largely a non-event. 

[TT-SEA]

Yes, a lot of it comes down to mesoscale dynamics like that, but that's true in January or December as well. It goes without saying that dry, backdoor cold pushes are kind of underwhelming from a weather awesomeness standpoint. 

 

Point is that early and mid February have shown a propensity to deliver plenty of nice events, so you don't need to try and downplay things from a climo standpoint. And it's way too early to be freaking out about mesoscale or synoptic scale things like low and CZ placement. That kind of stuff doesn't get sorted out until 12-24 hours beforehand. 

 

 

My downplaying had more to do with the dry model runs I guess.    And knowing a higher sun angle and blue skies overhead would make this seem like a non-event for most.    Obviously with precip in play it would be a totally different outcome and time of year would still be fairly meaningless.     

[Guest Winterdog]

Many of you may be interested in knowing that Richard is back.  He has posted on the "weather observations... world" thread.

[BLI snowman]

My downplaying had more to do with the dry model runs I guess.    And knowing a higher sun angle and blue skies overhead would make this seem like a non-event for most.    Obviously with precip in play it would be a totally different outcome and time of year would still be fairly meaningless.     

 

Again, lots can and will change with the models. Like you said, it's pretty unlikely that another week long airmass will be a snow-free affair for Seattle and Bellingham. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Many of you may be interested in knowing that Richard is back.  He has posted on the "weather observations... world" thread.

 

I noticed! 

 

We traded Flatiron for Richard...A pretty even trade I suppose! lol

[GHweatherChris]

Ummm guys, its raining here right now, no Joke!!  This is news.  LOL

[GHweatherChris]

I have a sneaky suspicion this upcoming possible weather event next month will be just like an event in February 2014.  Just a gut feeling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummm guys, its raining here right now, no Joke!!  This is news.  LOL

 

Yeah here too!

[Phil]

We will be about 47 days past the winter solstice when this event peaks.

 

Back up from December 20th and you back in early November. By February 9th... its comparable to late October sun angle. Which is why events after February 5th become much more rare. Very rare actually. Jim will point to one day or another... but there is a big change around 2/5 and it has to do with sun angle.

 

I remember having this discussion endlessly in 2006... and it was not really that cold during the day in the sunshine. Exception being Lynden and Ferndale.

 

We want wetter and maybe warmer solutions! Trust me... just cold is only going to satisfy one person on here.

Arctic temperatures typically bottom out around February 1st, +/- 10 days. NH SSTs above 40N bottom out in early March. This is prime time.

 

The higher Sun angle does lead to a tighter N/S temperature gradient over the mid latitudes as the tropics/subtropics begin to warm, coinciding with the maximum average spacing between planetary waves.

 

If events are rare in the PNW after February 5th, it has little to do with the Sun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time for the 00z to rock!

[Phil]

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

You can't nail a forecast for an event that hasn't occurred yet.

[Phil]

It has to happen at some point. If we actually get hit next week we will be getting hit in a time frame that has also struggled mightily in recent years. There is nothing we are more due for than a very cold Jan.

I think the idea that we're "due" for a given regime is baloney. There is nothing random about the climate system, so why treat it like it is?

[GHweatherChris]

I think the idea that we're "due" for a given regime is baloney. There is nothing random about the climate system, so why treat it like it is?

You would be one of a very select few professioniall/amateur that thinks this.

 

Hell, even Tim would agree that we are due for something, if he wasn't spending so much time and bandwidth to bringing Jim down.

[Phil]

Has anyone seen the winter storm warning for New Orleans? 1/2" of freezing rain and 1-3" of snow w/ blowing snow a possibility..

 

[Phil]

You would be one of a very select few professioniall/amateur that thinks this.

 

Hell, even Tim would agree that we are due for something, if he wasn't spending so much time and bandwidth to bringing Jim down.

I suspect most meteorologists with heavy physics-based backgrounds will reiterate my position. The forcings/dynamics that modulate the climate system are not random..neither is the system's response (which will vary).

 

That doesn't mean we understand the whys and hows..otherwise predictions would be a snap.

[Parksvillewx]

Euro weeklies are pretty from Feb 8th-24th. Really pretty...

 

CFSv2 has really backed off on the cold idea. Hmmmm

[GHweatherChris]

I suspect most meteorologists with heavy physics-based backgrounds will reiterate my position. The forcings/dynamics that modulate the climate system are not random..neither is the system's response (which will vary).

 

That doesn't mean we understand the whys and hows..otherwise predictions would be a snap.

Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

[GHweatherChris]

Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

Hell I am pretty sure Richard is not a meteorologist but he has done better that anyone I have seen the last few years predicting cold weather intruding the PNW/west coast.  Including you with your physics or whatever it is you do.

[Tyler Mode]

I can't remembr if I shared these vids and pics:

 

http://youtu.be/-Zo6CBG5dTM

 

http://youtu.be/GJe62vrrtFk

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Crown-Point-12414

 

Enjoy

[HighlandExperience]

Euro weeklies are pretty from Feb 8th-24th. Really pretty...

 

CFSv2 has really backed off on the cold idea. Hmmmm

 

CFS is wishy washy

[bainbridgekid]

00z looks great through hour 189.

 

Arctic front to Seattle with 850mb temps down to -10 and lots of cold air in BC looks like it's heading South.

 

EDIT: Though further upstream there is less cold air in the Yukon and Western Nunavut which might mean the 00z could not be as cold for days 10-12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy hell...

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_32.png