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January 2014 in the PNW


TT-SEA

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That's only five days out. With the operational Euro/GEM and GFS ensembles all in lockstep at this point I can't imagine things varying much. Maybe the token 1-2 degrees of warming by verification time.

Imagine if it trends a bit colder. We would be getting into epic territory.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Doing a comparison of the current 00Z ECMWF with the 12Z run and the 00Z run from last night.

 

The current run is quite a bit colder at 102 hours.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WOW

00z GEM 850mb temp loop

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en

Officially the coldest I've ever seen!

-20c to -25c PDX Holy flying circus sh!ts!

 

HR 120

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_114_0850.gif

Drop the bass!!! lol

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I'm pretty sure we saw something just as good 2 months ago.

This might be colder.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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By Thursday morning on the 00Z ECMWF... the coldest air is over Oregon.

 

Also... its much drier on Monday morning. But there are snow showers around Monday afternoon and even Tuesday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There seems to be potential for this one to go colder at the moment.

 

Any -10 degree temps West of the Cascades? ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z ECMWF to hour 168, if that L pressure heads due east that would be perfect!

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_0z/f168.gif

That is surely something to be watching. These generally like to steer north as they strengthen and get closer. Maybe we will get lucky... :) gonna be fun next couple of days to see how things setup.
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Details finally out on the 00Z ECMWF on the Wundermap site.

 

Still dry on Saturday morning... cold air being eroded by southerly winds.

 

Probably a quick transition event and then a mild, rainy Sunday.       

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020100!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Details finally out on the 00Z ECMWF.

 

Still dry on Saturday morning... cold air being eroded by southerly winds.

 

Probably a quick transition event and then a mild, rainy Sunday.   

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020100!!chart.gif

 

We better get a good snow out of this cold this time....  :wub:

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We all know that never happens.

 

Maybe not for the Hood Canal... but southerly winds in that set-up will scour SEA quickly.     

 

My location as well.    

 

Would be maybe 6 hours of possible snow Saturday afternoon on that run.      There would be nothing left Sunday with the flow being SW and not offshore.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That firmly entrenched of an arctic air mass models like always are going to be too quick to erode and moderate us. Every single time.

 

 

Not with SW flow.    SEA scours out fast.    We need offshore flow for those long duration transition events.    The 00Z ECMWF shows broad SW flow and warmer air flooding in... nothing to hold it in place.   The 2008 event had wicked offshore flow.    This is different.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That firmly entrenched of an arctic air mass models like always are going to be too quick to erode and moderate us. Every single time.

 

December 1998 says not always.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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December 1998 says not always.

 

 

Yeah... angle is everything.    People remember events like 2008 and apply it to every case.    But it does not work that way.   Many times I have seen SEA scour out without putting up any fight at all.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Maybe not for the Hood Canal... but southerly winds in that set-up will scour SEA quickly.     

 

My location as well.    

 

Would be maybe 6 hours of possible snow Saturday afternoon on that run.      There would be nothing left Sunday with the flow being SW and not offshore.

Of course this is based on if the euro is even correct. It has been all over the place in the 5-7 day range lately.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Who knows how this will settle out... all I am saying is that the 00Z ECMWF is still dry across the region on Saturday morning and way too warm for snow by Sunday with strong SW flow.

 

It would be a quick event if that verifies.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That firmly entrenched of an arctic air mass models like always are going to be too quick to erode and moderate us. Every single time.

 

Yep, every time. Warming can't be predicted correctly. I remember lots of times when the airport (PDX) and east counties (in OR and WA) stayed at 32 degrees with freezing rain when everywhere else had warmed up. Sometimes it would be 50 degrees in Salem and Eugene! HATE SOUTH WIND! It ruins ALL the fun everytime.

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January 2004 was the worst ice storm in the Willamette Valley in the 25 years I have lived here. Ice storms are not as common in the valley as in the Metro area and points east...I would say the top ones we've had in the Salem/Silverton area were.

 

1) January 2004

2) December 2008

3) February 1996

4) January 1998

5) December 1995 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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