Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Returns showing up on the WI IL boarder. Thinking south might be the way to go. That's the low level jet indicating where it is. The front is about an hour ahead of schedule. (HRRR)20s infiltrating the Fox Valley by Money now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Temps 47 wind just flipped here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Be back in a bit. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Be interesting to see how the RAP and HRRR perform after they sucked at their longer ranges last storm. Both currently still favor southern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Down to 39 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Let's go HRRR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Be interesting to see how the RAP and HRRR perform after they sucked at their longer ranges last storm. Both currently still favor southern WI Yeah - showing advisory level snows here the day before the 2/24 storm. Front is hauling south over an hour ahead of schedule now. Just came from Kenosha with temps dropping and low stratus moving in. 12km NAM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Agreed that front is moving faster than predicted. Already through Des Moines area about an hour ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 My temps are falling, but with no wind im a little cautious to decide whether it's from stratus moving in or from the front. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 My temps are falling, but with no wind im a little cautious to decide whether it's from stratus moving in or from the front. Winds are blowing north in your town. Front it here now. 15° difference from here on north to 10 miles now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Imby. It is dead calm. Not even my flag is moving. But I trust the metar station at VTI. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 38atm no wind or light Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 11 degree drop here in 15 minutes. Sitting at 39Breezy here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Front came through Lansing and rattled this building where I work really good. Lot of noises and creaks and groans n such. Impressive. 18z NAM wants to pull a bunny out of it's hat for SMI. Keep it coming NAM.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 You can see the f-gen band getting ready along and just south of US 20 right now. Looks like the newest map from MKX. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 3pm temp check: 51 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 34° here now. 15 degree drop in 30 minutes. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Noticing the HRRR is riding too far north with the band in SD. RGEM has better placement of it. Band in reality is heading straight for Sioux Falls. Lock it in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 3:40 - 51 degrees3:47 - 48 degrees Winds are beginning to blow hard-ish here. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Noticing the HRRR is riding too far north with the band in SD. RGEM has better placement of it. Band in reality is heading straight for Sioux Falls. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016022918/rgem_asnow_ncus_15.png Lock it in. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160229/18Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.pngCome on Geos, you can do better than this. What happened to the double digit amounts from a few days back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 3:40 - 51 degrees3:47 - 48 degrees Winds are beginning to blow hard-ish here. Yeah seems like our section of the front is the breezy portion. 33° here. @ Tony: The RGEM portion is 10:1 and the GFS doesn't handle these bands as good as the higher resolution models. We could be looking at 15:1 ratio, but probably more like 12-13:1. So do the math however you want with the total moisture. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS is really going all out on that second system. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Snow flurries already being reported in northeastern Cook County. Starting early.Futurecast showing 4-8" across the northern tier of counties. Around 4" at ORD. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Definitely toss the placement of the HRRR. Showing Sioux Falls getting 0.1" in the next 3 hours, when they are about to experience 1"+ /hour rates. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 @ Jaster/West Jim/Niko's...this storm really amps up across S MI....you guys are going to do really good... Latest...18z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR picking up on lake bands forming right around MKE around 3:00am (ish)...should pivot south as the SLP tracks through IL/IN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. Haha Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. HahaCheryl...isn't she eye candy or what?! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. Haha It's in a state of shock. Down to freezing here. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Cheryl...isn't she eye candy or what?!Well, when it's forever been Jerry Taft, anything's an upgrade. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 it's above guidance, but im going with 7.2 for Elmhurst. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Surprised the rap and hrrr arent jucier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP came back south some. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Geos magnet doing work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 RAP QPF http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160229/22Z/f18/accqpfconus.png HRRR snowfall. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160229/2200Z/f014/acckucherasnowmw.png They look nearly identical with the heavy band placement. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 HRRR coming back south now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just stop it. Lol. Stop getting me excited about this. Its not going to snow here. Its just gonna flurry for a few hours and then move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just stop it. Lol. Stop getting me excited about this. Its not going to snow here. Its just gonna flurry for a few hours and then move on. Just wait a couple days, things look a lot better for the south and southwest side of the metro. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchtastic Posted February 29, 2016 Report Share Posted February 29, 2016 there's an obvious north trend, just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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