MossMan Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: With the playbook null and avoid, what weather pattern/change would be the Flea Flicker? 6z GFS in 3 hours 25 minutes 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 00z GEFS a slight glimmery glimmer of a hinty hint for backdoor cool air. Some cooler air banks up against the Rockies. Grasping at a lot more than straws. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 (edited) When was the latest “first day of snow” in the Cascades? I wonder if we track that Edited October 4, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Kolumbia bazin Kold Pool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I don’t think I ever really weenie or downvote you, or many others on here. Only those who deserve it. This is patently false. But it is nice that you have to let everyone know how annoyed you are every day... forever. Might be a "you problem". Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: When was the latest “first day of snow” in the Cascades? I wonder if we track that I remember 2008 was abysmal through early December. Then it suddenly wasn't. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 00z ECMWF is trying to get there. Day 7 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!! ECMWF is back to showing a decent rain event for next Monday. 2 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is patently false. But it is nice that you have to let everyone know how annoyed you are every day... forever. Might be a "you problem". 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Day 8 PLEASE! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: I agree. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 And just like that... the ECMWF shows early snow for the Cascades and snow for Kayla heading for Jared early next week 2 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: And just like that... the ECMWF shows early snow for the Cascades and snow for Kayla heading for Jared early next week I REALLY hope the EPS agrees, or to at least see ~40% of members showing this possibility. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Jacket weather! 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 ECMWF shows full sun with highs barely getting to 60 by next Wednesday and Thursday. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 I have a feeling the EURO is picking up on something and I foresee a major change within 10 days now! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Like I said, ya gotta believe! BUT if you don't believe it won't happen, so do it! C'MON!!!! 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 43 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Night shift before Halloween? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Night shift before Halloween? Night shift!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 PLEASE! I was gonna say....Wow! Probably a rogue run, but impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 EPS running yet? I NEED to see Day 5-10! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 This ECMWF run is certainly very 1916ish. That was the driest La Nina October on record and one of the coldest. Obviously one of the coldest Octobers is probably already off the table with this start. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: This ECMWF run is certainly very 1916ish. That was the driest La Nina October on record and one of the coldest. Obviously one of the coldest Octobers is probably already off the table with this start. Not this year it isn't! I wouldn't rule out anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Hmmm. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Not this year it isn't! I wouldn't rule out anything. True dat. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Hmmm. Diggggggggg! Diggggggggggggggggg! C'MON!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 The control is all over the colder setup and the mean has certainly moved that way. 2 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Control. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Control. Quite similar to the Op. Here we go! Be prepared the EURO will lead the way! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Change from 12z on the mean. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 EPS trended in the same direction... 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 How nice is it to finally see some real potential with the op and eps. This looks legit. Finally. I showed up on the right night! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 GEFS looks about the same as the EPS... 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 That's it for me. Have a good night 00z GFS in 20 hours 9 minutes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 I wish to unsee the 00z GFS run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Weather summary for British Columbia issued by Environment Canada at 5:38 p.m. PDT Monday 3 October 2022. Discussion. A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on October 3, 2022: Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) Preliminary new record of 28.0 Old record of 26.7 set in 1980 Records in this area have been kept since 1944 Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) Preliminary new record of 27.7 Old record of 26.7 set in 1932 Records in this area have been kept since 1889 Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) Preliminary new record of 26.3 Old record of 25.6 set in 1947 Records in this area have been kept since 1944 Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) Preliminary new record of 23.9 Old record of 23.7 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1974 Hope Area (Hope Airport) Preliminary new record of 27.5 Old record of 27.2 set in 1952 Records in this area have been kept since 1936 Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) Preliminary new record of 25.4 Old record of 25.0 set in 1932 Records in this area have been kept since 1899 Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) Preliminary new record of 27.3 Old record of 26.5 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1921 Malahat Area (Malahat) Preliminary new record of 24.6 Old record of 19.9 set in 2001 Records in this area have been kept since 1986 Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) Preliminary new record of 22.0 Old record of 20.8 set in 2021 Records in this area have been kept since 1966 Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) Preliminary new record of 27.5 Old record of 27.0 set in 1993 Records in this area have been kept since 1908 Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) Preliminary new record of 27.6 Old record of 26.9 set in 1993 Records in this area have been kept since 1874 Powell River Area (Powell River) Preliminary new record of 22.6 Old record of 22.2 set in 1970 Records in this area have been kept since 1924 Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) Preliminary new record of 27.3 Old record of 26.6 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1959 Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) Preliminary new record of 24.6 Old record of 21.5 set in 1993 Records in this area have been kept since 1956 Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) Preliminary new record of 27.2 Old record of 23.7 set in 2015 Records in this area have been kept since 1960 Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) Preliminary new record of 26.8 Old record of 26.0 set in 2003 Records in this area have been kept since 1930 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2022 Report Share Posted October 4, 2022 Full EPS run... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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