Cloud Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 18z not backing down? lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: She’s coming in lower. Going to better for the PS if the precip shield goes far enough north looks too far south. This run is a good bit warmer than 12z. Someone get Drunkle his even booster shot stat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: looks too far south. This run is a good bit warmer than 12z. Someone get Drunkle his even booster shot stat. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I stand corrected 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 It shows snow in the air for Seattle for over 12 hours straight….. LFG 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 I'm headed to Seabrook the 11th. What are my odds of seeing snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 This run has a lot of cold air in SW BC, more than the 12z but it doesn't make it as far south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Doinko said: This run has a lot of cold air in SW BC, more than the 12z but it doesn't make it as far south I was bout to say the same thing. Gonna need the right low position to suck some cold air down as it tracks into landfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: 18z not backing down? lol The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan. 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Drunkle is about to go ballistic in the LR isn't he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Oh okay... 4 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Still on track Northeasterly flow with some northeasterly flow. Get my drift? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 This run is going to come in very very wet. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It shows snow in the air for Seattle for over 12 hours straight….. LFG That's 6.5" in the heart of DT seattle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan. Thanks Captain Obvious 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Why do I keep checking in only for the GFS to be even crazier? 1 1 1 1 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 No clue about snow or cold but that's a real soaker of a pattern advertised on most models in the mid-long range 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Get some sleep in the meantime... we all might need it. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: That escalated waaaaay quick. Again folks, show the model with the most snow. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, JSnowlin said: That escalated waaaaay quick. Again folks, show the model with the most snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 everyone wins 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 NWS Spokane starting to Honk Snow and wind Thursday to Monday: The period starts out quiet and cold, then rapid changes develop with the potential for significant precipitation and strong and potentially damaging winds Friday into Saturday, follow by the potential the first significant snow for the lower elevations Sunday into next Monday. As it is many days out there remains uncertainty regarding the details and precise impacts, yet computer model have been trying to converge on a solution over the past few days. Thursday is largely dry with colder than normal temperatures. The next system starts to nose into the Cascades with light snow chances Thursday afternoon, while clouds increase eastward. Then Thursday night to Saturday the stronger system moves into the region. The leading warm front and atmospheric river, with PWATs averaging around 200% of normal, noses in between Thursday night and Friday. This will bring a good chance for precipitation throughout all but the deeper Columbia Basin. Through early Friday colder air in place at the start of this period will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix in most areas except for deeper Columbia Basin. Light snow accumulations are possible over the eastern third of WA and ID and near the Cascades. Confidence in snow accumulations on roads is limited as road temperature forecasts suggest it may be too mild to accumulate effectively. However we will have to monitor portions of eastern WA and ID east of US-195, low elevations and passes. Some light accumulations are also expected near the Cascade crest too. Then Friday afternoon into Friday night milder air comes, pushing snow levels to between 5-7kft. So this portion of the system will largely see rain and high elevation, largely above pass level. Precipitation amounts could be 2-3 inches near the Cascade crest and an inch or so toward the ID Panhandle, while the eastern third of WA and immediate lee of the Cascades could see a quarter to a half inch, while the deeper basin should see less than a tenth. Going into Saturday the cold front passage starts to drop snow levels again. By mid-morning snow levels average between 1-2.5kft in the Cascades through Okanogan Highlands and 2.5-4.5kft elsewhere. By afternoon they average between 1.5-3kft, lowest around the Cascades through northern mountains. This means precipitation changing to snow around the passes, with the potential for moderate to heavy accumulations. Highlights may be necessary around the Cascades and ID Panhandle, though accumulates rates starts to decline going into Sunday morning. The Blues and Camas Prairie will also need to monitored. Going into Saturday night and Sunday, continuing into next Monday, snow levels drop further. They between average of 0.5-2Kft in the overnight/morning hours and 1-3Kft in the afternoon. The area will be in the post-frontal unstable upper trough, with embedded shortwave rotating through. By this time frame model agreement in details wanes, but the potential for precipitation remains in the high chance to low-end likely category. The mountains and southeast CWA have the highest risk. With those aforementioned snow levels there will be the potential for some snow accumulations in most areas, except the deeper basin and deeper L-C Valley. There is some risk there could even be some moderate accumulations in the low elevation, including the Spokane/CdA area and Palouse. However road temperatures still remain a question. Road temperatures forecast definitely show a cooling trend into next week, but it may be that overnight/morning hours will have the better potential for it sticking to road surfaces, as opposed to the warmer afternoon hours. It definitely needs monitoring as the new work week could start with snow impacts. ...Potential Significant Wind Event late Friday and Saturday... The other features of this system that may be have the most impact is the winds. Models continue to agree that the system will bring windy condition, from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Right now the peak wind time looks to be Friday evening to early Saturday, but timing could change. A low level jet between 60-65 mph is still depicted ahead of and with the cold front. Areas from the Upper Columbia Basin to Palouse and Spokane/CdA still look like they will be most impacted. Ensemble forecasts suggest gusts over 40 mph are becoming more likely, but some show average speeds higher. There have been only slight changes in the GEFS over the past several runs in that regard, but the EC Ensemble has showed the average wind gust potential pushing closer to 50 mph. A few outliers suggest gusts closer to those in the LLJ (i.e. over 60 mph) but confidence in that severity it limited. Either way it looks windy. Such gusts are not expected the entire event. Right now Friday evening looks like the peak wind time, but as mentioned that could change depending on precise cold front passage. Diurnally this is not the most favored time of day, due to a lack of thermal mixing. However mechanical mixing with the front could be enough. Stay tuned as this could be an event with damaging winds and power outages. Confidence will increase toward this being an impact or not as we get closer. /Solveig 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Thats the location I wanted to see Columbia River FTW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 EPS back on Wetterzentral. Takes several hours now but it finally finished. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 This is Kuchera and not 10:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: everyone wins 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Not even done and 18z Drunkle is off its rocker. 10:1 but IDGAF 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what Buried neck deep in wet snow 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 The GFS is kind of at OMG levels today. Even the ECMWF spits out snow and well below normal temps. 4 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 I could see the typical favored locations like kitsap, north peninsula and anywhere with gaps could actually do well in this setup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what I wouldn't say way warmer. I saw a frame that shows 925mb temps of -6. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 18z GEFS is a little better on the ridge so far vs 12z. Means little until we see that from the EPS probably 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 lol a seasons worth of snow in Spokane in 2 weeks (in NOV) Druncle needs to hit rehab 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 I will say I've never seen the models so snowy this early in the season before. Pretty crazy. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 I guess we ice age now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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