TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Troughy June 10th-24th? I think that is a good call. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days. The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days. The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned. Probably because it's ten days away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Probably because it's ten days away. No... there have been some crazy runs. And models flipping back and forth between strong zonal flow and strong ridging. Phil mentioned it as well... a very complicated and challenging pattern. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Looks like 75% of the GFS ensemble members are less aggressive with the troughing offshore in 10 days. The models have really been struggling with this pattern as Phil mentioned.Most of the 12z ensembles seem to be more aggressive with the "crash" than the operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Most of the 12z ensembles seem to be more aggressive with the "crash" than the operational. image.png Yeah... looks different at that level. The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though. The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days. Here is 300 hours: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f300.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Yeah... looks different at that level. The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though. The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days. Here is 300 hours: I prefer the other chart. Fairly cut and dry and less room for individual interpretation. I would say 75% of the ensemble members actually look stronger than the operational at day 10. For whatever that is worth. Again it is day ten that we are hyperanalyzing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 I prefer the other chart. Fairly cut and dry and less room for individual interpretation. I would say 75% of the ensemble members actually look stronger than the operational at day 10. OK. The ensemble mean pattern is fairly compelling as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 OK. The ensemble mean pattern is fairly compelling as well. I don't know where you got the 75% number looking at that, though. Like I said, too much room for individual interpretation/extrapolation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 I don't know where you got the 75% number looking at that, though. Like I said, too much room for individual interpretation/extrapolation. By counting members that had the trough over us as opposed to offshore in the 10-15 day period. The ensemble mean map supports this as well. Different ways to look at it... there are probably reasons for both. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Good marine push on Thursday morning per the 12Z ECMWF. And a fair amount of rain for areas north of Olympia. Also looks like highs in the 60s that day for everyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Good marine push on Thursday morning per the 12Z ECMWF. And a fair amount of rain for areas north of Olympia. Also looks like highs in the 60s that day for everyone. The Wednesday/Thursday period has definitely been trending cooler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run. Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then ends up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run. Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then end up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10.Ensemble mean will have the trough closer to us. Euro op hasn't been progressive enough in the 7-10 day range for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Ensemble mean will have the trough closer to us.You should be out hiking. We are heading to the lake now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Cold PDO developing quickly. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 You should be out hiking. We are heading to the lake now. Camped on the Upper Lewis River Friday/Saturday. I've been studying this morning. Calculus test tomorrow and Chemistry test Wednesday. :'( Might go to the park later on. Nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Cold PDO developing quickly. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gifThis is a false statement. The PDO is primarily defined by the region in the North Pacific where you see that deep blue blob right now. Blue blob there means WARM phase of PDO. Red blob there means cold phase. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 No... there have been some crazy runs. And models flipping back and forth between strong zonal flow and strong ridging. Phil mentioned it as well... a very complicated and challenging pattern.Yeah, but it looks like the ECMWF/EPS are handling it better than the GFS/GEFS, which have been horrific recently. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Yeah, but it looks like the ECMWF/EPS are handling it better than the GFS/GEFS, which have been horrific recently.Very true. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 12Z ECMWF keeps things mostly in check with the dumbbell effect in ULL offshore through the run. Energy on the west side pumps up the ridge here and then ends up breaking the ridge down a few days later. The cycle appears poised to repeat at day 10.On the 12z ECMWF, that high westerly momentum integral over the North Pacific suggests that powerful 250mb jet will continue to plow into the PNW/Western Canada, rather than weaken, inducing the surface lows to retrograde/dumbbell away. Last night's 00z EPS mean and EPS control run both trended stronger with the NPAC jet extension/zonal flow, so we'll have to see if the 12z EPS holds, continues the trend, or reverses. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 This is a false statement. The PDO is primarily defined by the region in the North Pacific where you see that deep blue blob right now. Blue blob there means WARM phase of PDO. Red blob there means cold phase.PDO is overrated 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Yeah... looks different at that level. The ensemble mean never moves the trough inland though. The operational 12Z GFS does in about 10 days. Here is 300 hours: The individual GEFS members are just all over the place. What a pathetic model. At least the EPS members are somewhat consistent through day10. Some GEFS members are literally polar opposite to one another by day8. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 PDO is overrated Maybe so... just explaining it. It's the opposite of what you think looking at the map. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Cold PDO developing quickly. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomp.5.30.2016.gifCold hearted? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Agree, you guys deserve it more than anyone. I read something on NOAA a few weeks ago stating that since 2014, Northwest North America has experienced the most persistent warm anomalies of any place on the globe, except the Arctic. No doubt that is related to the drought plaguing CA and other nearby regions. The high pressure responsible for these anomalies has been one of the features blocking the storm track from reaching CA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 No doubt that is related to the drought plaguing CA and other nearby regions. The high pressure responsible for these anomalies has been one of the features blocking the storm track from reaching CA. I thought CA was only being plagued by a marine layer problem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Ensemble mean will have the trough closer to us. Euro op hasn't been progressive enough in the 7-10 day range for a while. Tough to tell... not a huge difference. Personally, I like the ensemble mean image a little better. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-hXhwul.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 For those who care. The 12z EPS is actually weaker with the initial jet assault, instead morphs into a classic Niña/-PNA (NW flow) look, with a stable ridge well offshore (over/south of the Aleutians). Troughing is located over the GOA/PNW/Western Canada. Still looks nothing like the GEFS, actually trended stronger with the PNW/Western Canada troughing during days 13-15. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Nice view from Portland's Council Crest this afternoon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 I love model wars. Looks like the 18z GFS is digging its heels in, after the 12z ECMWF/EPS did the same. Will try to take the retrogression route to -PNA, which will take an additional week to do. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 30, 2016 Report Share Posted May 30, 2016 Nice view from Portland's Council Crest this afternoon. image.png Those trees are really blocking the view of the city. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 Well, the GEFS went towards the western trough/-PNA idea for mid/late June. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 Those trees are really blocking the view of the city.At least you can still see the mountains. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 Perfect day, hit a high of 73, still 71, temps over achieved a bit today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 Nice day. High so far is 77 with a low of 34 degrees. Weather trivia for May 30 in Klamath Falls in 1995. Heavy t'storm with 1.50" hail and a small tornado ripped the roof off a school district bus barn. Hail damaged local sugar beet fields. One of the few supercell occurrences down here. Not as common as say Pendleton or elsewhere in the Blue Mountain region, but a few do happen here. Through my finds in the internet, large hail events are not rare for Klamath Falls and surrounding towns, nor are crop damages. In the late 80's there were a few large-scale crop losses totaling into the millions of $ dollars just to the east of the city. As well as 2.50" size hail in K-Falls on 06/30/1987 with funnel clouds observed. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 Great day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 31, 2016 Report Share Posted May 31, 2016 00Z GFS did some back-pedaling on the troughing in the mid and long range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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