July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It is pretty humid up here. My dew point briefly touched 20C (68F). It's generally been in the mid 60's during the afternoon for the past three days.

That's crazy. It hasn't been bad at all down here. Dps in the 50s for the most part which is normal summer fare for Portland and Seattle.

 

Looks like everyone will see a surge of cooler/drier air tonight as the warm spell dies a quick death.

[BLI snowman]

There has really been a delightful lack of humidity this summer, compared to the last few.

 

Last summer wasn't particularly humid either. 2013 and 2014 were both unusually sticky. 

[Phil]

Coming from PA nothing would ever feel humid here. Dewpoints have been sort of high by our standards this summer... almost constantly between 55-60.

 

Dewpoint is 61 right now at SEA. Normally we have days with dewpoints in the 40s in the summer. Not this year.

I thought you grew up in MN? Why wouldn't this apply to you?

 

As far as I know, nobody would consider 55-60 degree dewpoints to be "humid". That's actually quite dry by most standards.

[TT-SEA]

I thought you grew up in MN? Why wouldn't this apply to you?

 

As far as I know, nobody would consider 55-60 degree dewpoints to be "humid". That's actually dry by most standards, if anything.

 

I lived in San Diego for 12 years and here now for 12 years.

 

I meant he literally just arrived from PA today.   

 

Last summer he would have said this was humid... today it probably feels like its very dry in comparison to what he felt earlier this week in PA.

[Phil]

I lived in San Diego for 12 years and here now for 12 years.

 

I meant he literally just arrived from PA today.

Then why isn't the majority of the forum calling it humid?

[TT-SEA]

Then why isn't the majority of the forum calling it humid?

 

 

Probably been more humid in the Puget Sound region and northward this summer... I don't know.

 

I think Fred has called a dewpoint of 55 humid before.   Might feel different to him now.  

[Deweydog]

Last summer wasn't particularly humid either. 2013 and 2014 were both unusually sticky.

I was gonna say, after the late June ridiculousness last summer was pretty arid.

[TT-SEA]

I was gonna say, after the late June ridiculousness last summer was pretty arid.

 

 

Up here it has seems like last summer was less humid than this summer so far.    Hard to tell without doing some research.

[Deweydog]

Up here it has seems like last summer was less humid than this summer so far. Hard to tell without doing some research.

Kind of an apples and oranges comparison. Most people associate humidity with heat.

[BLI snowman]

Looking locally, VUO has seen 8 days with dewpoints of 60+ since June 1.

 

Looking at the last few years, the JJAS period in 2015 only had 16 such days. 2014 had 26 and 2013 had 36. 

 

1998 is probably the modern champ, JJAS had 51 days of 60+ dewpoints and a couple of 70+ dewpoint days with the late July heat. 

[MossMan]

There has really been a delightful lack of humidity this summer, compared to the last few.

I feel like this year up here anyway has been much more humid, but I have no statistics to back that up, just what feels like.

[TT-SEA]

I feel like this year up here anyway has been much more humid, but I have no statistics to back that up, just what feels like.

 

 

Same here.  

[Front Ranger]

Looking locally, VUO has seen 8 days with dewpoints of 60+ since June 1.

 

Looking at the last few years, the JJAS period in 2015 only had 16 such days. 2014 had 26 and 2013 had 36. 

 

1998 is probably the modern champ, JJAS had 51 days of 60+ dewpoints and a couple of 70+ dewpoint days with the late July heat. 

 

So 2016 is on the same pace as last year for Portland area. Significantly less than 2014 and 2013.

 

Good research.

[Deweydog]

Nice little blast from the warm phase past the last couple days with some overperforming heat.

 

#obama'ssecondterm

[Jesse]

Last summer wasn't particularly humid either. 2013 and 2014 were both unusually sticky.

True. Although there was a pretty sultry period in late June. No such nonsense this year.

[Jesse]

Nice little blast from the warm phase past the last couple days with some overperforming heat.

 

#obama'ssecondterm

This was expected to be a much longer/more extreme heatwave under a week ago.

 

And weren't you calling for 95+ just a few days ago?

 

#underachieving

[Phil]

This was expected to be a much longer/more extreme heatwave under a week ago.

 

And weren't you calling for 95+ just a few days ago?

 

#underachieving

It also ends today. It was originally progged to last longer. General troughing looks to take hold again from tomorrow through at least the first week of August.

 

So, progression remains ~ one week faster than I've been predicting. Just a strange year for intraseasonal exchange. The ridging I thought would occur in early August occurred a week earlier, in late July. Annoying.

 

Also, there are strong indications that troughing is favored from late August into at least early September, so that leaves the middle of August up for grabs, as there are conflicting signals there. Will have to see if La Niña holds its grip or if intraseasonal forcing throws a wrench in things.

[Deweydog]

This was expected to be a much longer/more extreme heatwave under a week ago.

 

And weren't you calling for 95+ just a few days ago?

 

#underachieving

 

I said pushing 95, and I thought that was a bit aggressive.  

 

#rationalizations

[Deweydog]

It also ends today. It was originally progged to last longer. General troughing looks to take hold again from tomorrow through at least the first week of August.

 

So, progression remains ~ one week faster than I've been predicting. Just a strange year for intraseasonal exchange. The ridging I thought would occur in early August occurred a week earlier, in late July. Annoying.

 

Also, there are strong indications that troughing is favored from late August into at least early September, so that leaves the middle of August up for grabs, as there are conflicting signals there. Will have to see if La Niña holds its grip or if intraseasonal forcing throws a wrench in things.

 

Well you certainly nailed the NW'erly onshore flow of the last 7-10 days or so.  It's been a relentless beast of negativity.  

[Phil]

Well you certainly nailed the NW'erly onshore flow of the last 7-10 days or so. It's been a relentless beast of negativity.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Phil]

Looks like coastal SSTs have cooled over the last 7 days. We're beginning to observe evidence of tendencies more associated with fluid inertia, forced by background anticyclonic flow and high pressures over the NPAC.

 

New round of upwelling also occurring in the ENSO regions, should begin spreading westward as the thermocline responds to the trade wind surge that is now underway:

 

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssttrend_007d_large.gif

[Deweydog]

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Not a huge surprise...

[Geos]

89.4°/63° here. Was down by the Sound a little while ago. About 10° lower there. Little surprised the dewpoint is up like it is too.

[Phil]

Not a huge surprise...

That's what I thought. Walk it back, no chance.

[Deweydog]

That's what I thought. Walk it back, no chance.

You went on a little NW flow binge around mid month, trying to flex some microclimate muscle. Didn't work out too well. This has not been a good upwelling summer.

[Phil]

You went on a little NW flow binge around mid month, trying to flex some microclimate muscle. Didn't work out too well. This has not been a good upwelling summer.

If you were paying any attention whatsoever, I forecasted offshore ridging with NW flow aloft for the third week of July, or more specifically, July 15th to July 25th.

 

That is exactly what happened.

[Deweydog]

Here's the second half of July so far. Troughy overall, with more troughing 7/30 & 7/31.

 

Y'all are hilarious.

 

image.gif

You nailed the broadscale progression. Despite being a bit of a prick, you're fairly sharp. I can relate.

 

You did however fall apart when it came to the details. Maybe you didn't care, but you did try and failed.

 

You know how the old saying goes: if at first you don't succeed, don't try again because you suck.

[ShawniganLake]

Big cloud of smoke hanging over the olympics, visible from Victoria today. Something is burning pretty good down that way.

[Phil]

You nailed the broadscale progression. Despite being a bit of a prick, you're fairly sharp. I can relate.

You did however fall apart when it came to the details. Maybe you didn't care, but you did try and failed.

You know how the old saying goes: if at first you don't succeed, don't try again because you suck.

Considering PDX, OLM, and EUG were all below average from 7/15 to 7/25, how did I fail?

 

I never made any city/station-specific forecast. I stated the majority of the region would finish cooler than average, which is exactly what happened.

 

I know I've been an arse lately, and/or just a "heavy presence" in general, and it's clear you're trying to be fair and balanced here. However, sometimes you just have to look at things as they are, within the appropriate context, regardless of the personal stuff. As a lawyer, you should know this better than anyone.

[Trainwreck]

All of you can say what you will, but if it's within the next week or so, I'll follow Mark's forecast. He is going to be right more than not. Just my two cents.

[MossMan]

The last 3 days have been perfect weatherwise, just got done playing on the lake. 85 for a high, currently 81 degrees...perrrrfection

[MossMan]

Considering PDX, OLM, and EUG were all below average from 7/15 to 7/25, how did I fail?

 

I never made any city/station-specific forecast. I stated the majority of the region would finish cooler than average, which is exactly what happened.

 

I know I've been an arse lately, and/or just a "heavy presence" in general, and it's clear you're trying to be fair and balanced here. However, sometimes you just have to look at things as they are, within the appropriate context, regardless of the personal stuff. As a lawyer, you should know this better than anyone.

Do you plan on moving out here sometime? You seem very passionate about the Northwest!

[Phil]

Analogs for August, using ENSO/QBO with some PDO factored in. Despite the QBO problem, we can isolate some of the representative progressions in the timeframe of interest.

 

This is the aggregated signal for August:

 

[Phil]

These analogs nailed July. Unfortunately, we cannot take them back into May/June without re-tuning for QBO, which would add/subtract years. So, as of right now, all we have is July to verify from.

 

Analogs versus July 2016:

 

 

[Phil]

Also, for the record I wouldn't carry these analogs into winter. Starting in October, full-layer +QBO/-ENSO analogs will be the best reflectors, tuned for IO/PDO contrast.

 

If these analogs hold into September (questionable depending on rate of QBO progression), here's the look we get:

 

[Deweydog]

All of you can say what you will, but if it's within the next week or so, I'll follow Mark's forecast. He is going to be right more than not. Just my two cents.

Beware his severe warm bias. Case in point, he went for 93 the last couple days at PDX.

[Geos]

Managed to tag 90° here today. Looking forward to the cool down this weekend.

 

The view from Magnolia Bluff today was awesome!

Little hazy -

 

 

[TT-SEA]

These analogs nailed July. Unfortunately, we cannot take them back into May/June without re-tuning for QBO, which would add/subtract years. So, as of right now, all we have is July to verify from.

 

Analogs versus July 2016:

 

image.gif

 

image.png

 

Those analogs nailed July?   And 1988 is on the list?   

 

Wonder why I brought up 1988?  Its been a excellent guide for timing locally.   We have just been running warmer than 1988 in the Puget Sound region.

[snow_wizard]

It appears this cooling trend may behave a bit differently than the past few.  Tonight Forks is already down to 54 under clear skies instead of upper 50s and low clouds.  I would love to see lower dew points and cooler nights this time around.

[snow_wizard]

At this point Tuesday appears to have a shot at a high in the 60s.  Going to be below normal to some extent.