ShawniganLake Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows a heat wave out here next week while its cooler in Minnesota. Figures. I wanted cool and rainy while we were gone because we can't be watering. That massive vortex over AK has heat wave written all over it for the PNW. Some signs pointing toward warmth starting around that time http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016080112/gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Evening highs are definitely a tricky beast. 71 at 5pm and BOOM!!!!!!!!!! It's 95 degrees at 7pm. Wear light clothing and get plenty of clear fluids.Vodka? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Still looks too far north and too weak to bring rain. Probably just sunny, pleasant days for most of the area. Yeah, the trajectory argues for mostly dry, but it's definitely cooler than some other recent runs. Below normal for sure. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Some signs pointing toward warmth starting around that time http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png It's interesting how different your guys' 850mb charts look from ours down here: A decent signal for a heat event around day 10, but still a much cooler look overall. I'm thinking if we do get a mid-August heat event it will possibly lead to a cooler and wetter last 1/3 of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough). So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Sunny and 75F here at the noon hour. Might have a shot at some convection early tomorrow morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough). So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week. Sounds reasonable. Cool first week of August, warm second week, cool again third week, and then maybe around normal last week? That's the progression I'd guess at this point. It might even match Tim's localized analogs. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 What'll probably happen is: WAF surge in NWPAC --> NPAC jet extension --> downstream anticyclonic response (western ridge) --> jet retraction as EFs go equatorward --> anticyclone (ridge) retrogrades offshore under the collapse --> downstream cyclonic response (western trough). So, essentially a repeat of the progression we just went through from late July through today/this week.Any idea for September? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Shame that our window for 110+ temps is rapidly closing as we enter the not-quite-as-hot sun angle season. Summer 2016 will go down as another year of lost potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Shame that our window for 110+ temps is rapidly closing as we enter the not-quite-as-hot sun angle season. Summer 2016 will go down as another year of lost potential.Sun angle is RAPIDLY approaching early-May levels! Are you still feeling an August cool anomaly party like it's 1995? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Sun angle is RAPIDLY approaching early-May levels! Are you still feeling an August cool anomaly party like it's 1995? Looks like another pretty frighteningly average month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Looks like another pretty frighteningly average month.I would agree on the whole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Hazy... looking forward to rain and an air cleaning tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 4km NAM showing convective showers tomorrow. Can kind of make out where the PSCZ will fire up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 WRF NMM and ARW really showing that PSCZ right along I-90. Showing 1" amounts... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 WRF NMM and ARW really showing that PSCZ right along I-90. Showing 1" amounts... Welcome to central King County! We get all kinds of action here. Sometimes its annoying and sometimes its really fun. Summer rain and convection in a c-zone is fun. So is c-zone snow. I would LOVE an inch of rain tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Inversion appears to have broken in Seattle... temps warmed up quickly and the haze has cleared. Still sort of lingering to the east against the mountains though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Models definitely seem to be trending cooler with the trough next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Clearly the inversion is gone because SEA went from 59 at noon to 76 at 5 p.m. Might still go a little higher. It will be interesting to see if it returns on Wednesday and Thursday or if there was just something different about the weekend trough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 The ensemble espread from the 11th on is pretty crazy. Must be a typhoon entering the picture. Those things can create some wildly amplified patterns. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Models definitely seem to be trending cooler with the trough next weekend. It's showing up nicely on the 18z ensemble. The trough tomorrow shows up as a pretty impressive crash on the 850mb temperature profile. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 It's too bad the increased frequency of obs puts out so much bogus data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 It's too bad the increased frequency of obs puts out so much bogus data.Gonna make fall and winter that much more stressful. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Gonna make fall and winter that much more stressful.Maybe for you. Do you think it's a rounding issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Maybe for you. Do you think it's a rounding issue?I have no idea. It's been this way for a long time whenever the obs go haywire, which was typically event-generated. Seems like foggy mornings would often do it, probably because of shifting visibilities. All in all, it's a minor inconvenience at best. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 I have no idea. It's been this way for a long time whenever the obs go haywire, which was typically event-generated. Seems like foggy mornings would often do it, probably because of shifting visibilities. All in all, it's a minor inconvenience at best.Interesting. The shifting visibilities explanation makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Interesting. The shifting visibilities explanation makes sense.At any rate, I think the obs are taken from one of the NWS mets' 2012 Nissan Altima's car thermometer. He religiously parks in the shade for accuracy's sake. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Most everyone gets some rain tomorrow... except the new desert areas of Olympia and parts of Vancouver Island. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_pcp24.36.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Most everyone gets some rain tomorrow... except the new desert areas of Olympia and parts of Vancouver Island. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_pcp24.36.0000.gifHot D**n!! Might see some sprinkles tomorrow, thank goodness, the dandelions need some water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough. I like that. Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight. Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough. I like that. Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight. Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping.I'd post a reaction to both scenarios if I were you. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 I'd post a reaction to both scenarios if I were you. Probably should. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 GFS is way deeper with the Sunday trough. I like that. Too tired to make it to the ECMWF tonight. Not ignoring it if the heat wave disappears on that run... just sleeping. July was quite the roller coaster. You're forgiven for taking a break. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 July was quite the roller coaster. You're forgiven for taking a break.Canadian and GFS are much farther south with the weekend ULL. I like to see that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Canadian and GFS are much farther south with the weekend ULL. I like to see that. The warm early August scenario is looking iffy. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 The warm early August scenario is looking iffy.It definitely is now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Quick cooling again tonight. Many places already into the 50s. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Reached 77° here today. Down to 61° currently.Point forecast has rain starting around 5am. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 The weekend is looking pretty darn cool on the GFS. The WRF spits out possible highs in the 60s both Sat and Sun. The decent low at SEA this morning was well timed. It got the month off to a below normal start! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 The warm early August scenario is looking iffy. What warm early August scenario is that? It has looked cool all along. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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