August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.

 

Hopefully with the la Niña the snow level will come down to the lowlands more often.

I know the last two winters have been fairly blah.

[TT-SEA]

Time for the meds?

 

 

No... that is just the way it is here.    Should we pretend that is not true?    

 

Hawaii, Palm Springs, and Florida to break it up this winter.  

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully with the la Niña the snow level will come down to the lowlands more often.

I know the last two winters have been fairly blah.

 

Even Nina winters... its mostly blah and the above forecast applies.    Very easy usually.   When something good happens it will be awesome though.... and not last very long.  

[MossMan]

Winter forecast is easy here... rain on most days, gloomy, damp cold.

Pretty much! My favorite non snowy or windstorm days are days were we are in pre frontal warm sector southerly flow where it's partly cloudy, breezy to windy and warm. Or if we have a very sharp cold front move through. Drizzle and 47 degrees day after day is just awful.

[Jesse]

Time for the meds?

Amazing what a few troughy runs will do.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing what a few troughy runs will do.

 

 

What is amazing?    

 

Phil brought up the winter forecast.    I said its easy.  

 

It has nothing to do with a ULL over the weekend when we are not even here and instead sweating it out in Minnesota for 2 weeks.  

 

Nice stretch there just to be a d*ck.

[Jesse]

Pretty much! My favorite non snowy or windstorm days are days were we are in pre frontal warm sector southerly flow where it's partly cloudy, breezy to windy and warm. Or if we have a very sharp cold front move through. Drizzle and 47 degrees day after day is just awful.

Warm, wet southerly flow is easily some of our gloomiest winter weather. Cold sunshine/inversions beats that IMO.

[Front Ranger]

No... that is just the way it is here. Should we pretend that is not true?

 

 

Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs?

[TT-SEA]

Good downpour here right now... I can see the plants perking up.

[Deweydog]

Why ask why?

 

Try Bud Dry.

[Phil]

Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs?

He's trolling, knowing a certain few here will react accordingly. He was discussing winter analogs/patterns as recently as a few weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

He's trolling, knowing a certain few here will react accordingly (particularly Jim).

Not at all. Lately Jim has been the one complaining about our winter gloom way more than me.

 

And last winter was gloomy.

[Phil]

Not at all. Lately Jim has been the one complaining about our winter gloom way more than me.

 

And last winter was gloomy.

By "Winter forecast", we're referring to a scientifically-based prediction of pattern tendencies, and corresponding anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall relative to normal and/or recent years.

 

Whether or not your winter is "gloomy" is irrelevant to the purpose and structure of a seasonally-scaled winter forecast.

[TT-SEA]

By "Winter forecast", we're referring to a scientifically-based prediction of pattern tendencies, and corresponding anomalies in temperature, precipitation, and snowfall relative to normal and/or recent years.

 

Whether or not your winter is "gloomy" is irrelevant to the purpose and structure of a seasonally-scaled winter forecast.

 

 

No kidding.   

[TT-SEA]

Fun day... sun and downpours.

 

While taking this picture there was a loud rumble of thunder...

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the Seattle area might get missed....focus is shifting south.  

 

Lots of thunder right now from the cell passing to my south.

 

[TT-SEA]

Then why bother talking about the winter weather at all? Why discuss possible analogs, as you've done many times? Why stay up for model runs?

 

 

Because I am addicted to this stuff... and finding chances for snow and cold to break up the normal winter weather.  

 

Still the overall forecast is pretty easy.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we got about .35 in 20 minutes with that last cell.    It was dumping rain.

[MossMan]

Looks like we got about .35 in 20 minutes with that last cell. It was dumping rain.

I got about 20 minutes of drizzle!

[TT-SEA]

Sunny in Seattle now... 

 

 

But that pile of clouds to the east is over my area...

 

[TT-SEA]

.52 on the day here.

[TT-SEA]

71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge.

 

Looks like a -3 day.

[MossMan]

71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge.

 

Looks like a -3 day.

Only 64 here at my house...with just a trace of rain today. Let the warmup begin!!

[Front Ranger]

71 at SEA today with .11 in the rain gauge.

 

Looks like a -3 day.

 

Any type of clearing this evening, and midnight lows could be an issue again.

[TT-SEA]

Any type of clearing this evening, and midnight lows could be an issue again.

 

Issue?   

 

Well... better stay up until 1 a.m. to make sure!

 

Does not look like there will be much clearing anyways... and the dewpoint is still 56.   We might be safe!   Maybe.   Possibly.

[Front Ranger]

Issue?

 

Well... better stay up until 1 a.m. to make sure!

 

Does not look like there will be much clearing anyways... and the dewpoint is still 56. We might be safe! Maybe. Possibly.

Exactly.

[MossMan]

This weather is really causing some serious fire issues over in Eastern Wa, especially the Moses Lake area where several homes have burned this afternoon. Extreme fire behavior due to low humidity and high winds...we need to get back to a stable air mass.

[snow_wizard]

Only 64 here at my house...with just a trace of rain today. Let the warmup begin!!

 

Haven't you had enough warmth the past couple of years?  Sheesh.

 

You probably would have lost your mind in 1955.

[snow_wizard]

One very noteworthy temp on the 6pm observations is the crazy 62 degree reading in Ellensburg with clear skies.  That is REALLY impressive.  Certainly another case of the Puget Sound area underperforming on negative anoms, but at least the month is running below normal.

[Geos]

0.11" here only. Got caught in a downpour on the north end of Issaquah earlier today with a couple low rumbles of thunder.

[TT-SEA]

Haven't you had enough warmth the past couple of years?  Sheesh.

 

You probably would have lost your mind in 1955.

 

Jim... 64 in early August is not summer weather.    Its a very fair complaint.   No need to mock him.    So according to you... we should never wish for warm weather in the short window of the year we have for actual warm weather here?    

 

As you say... sheesh.   

 

Who cares what he would have thought of 1955?    

[Geos]

Even Nina winters... its mostly blah and the above forecast applies.    Very easy usually.   When something good happens it will be awesome though.... and not last very long.  

 

I've read your snow posts in the winter, it seems like you do fairly well with winter weather usually. Any idea what your average snowfall is?

[TT-SEA]

I've read your snow posts in the winter, it seems like you do fairly well with winter weather usually. Any idea what your average snowfall is?

 

Probably around 60 inches... but varies wildly and the average has been inflated by some extreme years.

 

We went 3 winters with very little snow and no snow on the ground for 95% of the winter... then last winter we had 30 inches (from mid December to early January) which became hard as concrete and lasted for almost a month.   

[TT-SEA]

This was our yard at the peak of the snow depth last winter... the morning of January 4th.

 

 

 

 

This was 4 days later.   What was left here actually stayed for another couple weeks.    In the backyard it was probably 8 inches deep and impossible to break through.   Like a block of ice.  

 

 

January 9th... the daffodils poking up with snow still on the ground.   Quite the turnaround from 5 days earlier.     Areas in the sun had green grass and areas in the shade were totally in winter.

[Front Ranger]

Jim... 64 in early August is not summer weather. Its a very fair complaint. No need to mock him. So according to you... we should never wish for warm weather in the short window of the year we have for actual warm weather here?

 

As you say... sheesh.

 

Who cares what he would have thought of 1955?

Mossman has become our resident cheerleader of warmth. He drank the warm-aid awhile back and was turned to the dark side.

[snow_wizard]

Mossman has become our resident cheerleader of warmth. He drank the warm-aid awhile back and was turned to the dark side.

 

 

Well put.  I enjoy cool / cold anomalies any time of year.  Cool weather during the warm parts of the year is typical for our cold phases.  Cold phases = cold winters.

 

At any rate the next period of trouging / below normal 850s looks to last 5 days or so.  Not a lot for warm weather fans to cheer about right now.

[TT-SEA]

Well put.  I enjoy cool / cold anomalies any time of year.  Cool weather during the warm parts of the year is typical for our cold phases.  Cold phases = cold winters.

 

At any rate the next period of trouging / below normal 850s looks to last 5 days or so.  Not a lot for warm weather fans to cheer about right now.

 

 

That was sarcasm by Jared.

 

Many people like warm weather in the summer and don't care about anomalies.   Summer is short... the rest of the year is not warm regardless of anomalies.    

 

Variety is nice.   We have 3 months to enjoy the true warm variety.    Don't be picking on Randy!  

[TT-SEA]

Another downpour... up to .75 on the day.

[Deweydog]

Hard to know what I would do if I was granted one weather-related wish. Would I wish for the ability to control the weather or control the way people feel about the weather. Tough call.

[TT-SEA]

I have visions of Jim scolding the throngs of people in the park or at the beach on a warm summer day. Or standing in an empty park or beach on a crappy summer day beaming with pride.