snow_wizard Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 This run sucks..much of the US in the upper 90s/100s right into early/mid September. I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September. God knows we have seen our share in recent years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I'm talking about the pattern after the heat wave. The WRF is showing next weekend cooler than this weekend. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 This block is absolutely gorgeous. In the winter that placement pushes Arctic air in to the NW while moisture from the Pacific would undercut. Pretty rare to see something like this in the summer.I love it but that just happens to be the day we have 50 people over for our yearly family get together. I'm not seeing any precipitation with that trough that day though. Right??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 We will be seeing highs in the 70s tomorrow. The models are advertising NW flow. Although I suppose they could be wrong. What is the CFS saying for tomorrow?And you wonder why people don't take you seriously when you go on one of your "can't we all just get along???" flips. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September. God knows we have seen our share in recent years.Same here, three consecutive blowtorch Septembers ('13-'15). You guys will be fine this year, though. We'll torch for a fourth consecutive year, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Shades of 2008 if PDX can find a way to score a 69 degree high tomorrow. And then some upper 50's by 08/31... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 And then some upper 50's by 08/31... That was a potent lil' guy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I should have said the WRF shows next weekend being cooler than tomorrow will be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 And you wonder why people don't take you seriously when you go on one of your "can't we all just get along???" flips. Oh settle down, Sally. That was pretty mild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 CFS 4 Lyfe Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September. God knows we have seen our share in recent years. That seems to be more a normal occurrence down here, so I really would settle for 1-2 weeks of early Fall-ish type weather end of the month. I'm due for some 65 degree scattered showers type days. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Oh settle down, Sally. That was pretty mild.Give him a little credit. He's obviously pretty young and energetic and his stuff lately hasn't been too outlandish, relatively speaking. You guys aren't too dissimilar looking at you 10 years ago, although he doesn't seem quite as mean-spirited. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Natural AC blowing through the house feels pretty nice. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Give him a little credit. He's obviously pretty young and energetic and his stuff lately hasn't been too outlandish, relatively speaking. You guys aren't too dissimilar looking at you 10 years ago, although he doesn't seem quite as mean-spirited. I'm still not entirely convinced he is for real. I could be wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I'm still not entirely convinced he is for real. I could be wrong.Think he lives on Stampede Pass? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Think he lives on Stampede Pass? It's a distinct possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 The wind chimes are singing my song. 55F and dropping. Very nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Raining. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Canadian alert! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Details? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Canadian alert! I don't see anything too outlandish, although the version I look at only goes out to 144 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Canadian alert!100? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 100?Probably not. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Looks like the 00z op was a warm outlier for early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Looked like it might rain, but didn't here. 75/59 for Sunday's temps. Friday looking like the warmest day of the week on the new GFS run. Then the crash. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 43.3 degrees this morning at my station in Battle Ground...a new August record low! Barely beats out 43.4 on the 25th in 2012.https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABATTL18http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off Not bad after being 102 two days ago. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 53 at PDX this morning. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 The 00z Euro was nice and troughy from Saturday onward. Might be just enough to help us avoid a third consecutive top warm August. We cool weather lovers are pretty greedy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 In regards to winter, I'm a huge fan of the observed tendency towards anticyclonic breaking (blocking) over the NPAC this summer. However, the bigger question is if/how will the nature of the tropical forcings change after the (seasonal) southward shift of the ITCZ/convective network during October and November? Those warm off-equator SSTAs won't be in play to the extent they are currently. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 43.3 degrees this morning at my station in Battle Ground...a new August record low! Barely beats out 43.4 on the 25th in 2012. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABATTL18 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off Not bad after being 102 two days ago. Wow, my low is only 47 here in Klamath. Though very far from record. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 I think the number one priority (for the PNW) this winter is to get those westerlies down to 50mb before December, for a deep layer +QBO. Will keep the NPAC anticyclone stronger and displaced poleward, as well as reduce equatorward convection/enhance off equator convection, which is theorized to help prevent destructive intraseasonal (MJO) interference during Niña winters, and keep forcing in the IO/MT as opposed to the Pacific. Niña years w/ relative easterly shear stress over the Equatorial Pacific tend to fail in the PNW, including all of them in the 21st century. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 January 2005 redux next week? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 January 2005 redux next week? Looking less arctic with each run. Southerly flow instead of northerly flow?? Oh my. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 January 2005 redux next week? Luckily the Euro keeps troughing solidly over us, for now.... That does look uncannily like the January 2005 progression, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Well, the GFS goes back to its ice age idea in the d11-15 range. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 It's raining quite hard right now. Free water for my potatoes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Luckily the Euro keeps troughing solidly over us, for now.... That does look uncannily like the January 2005 progression, though.Well, with some more luck, hard work, prayers and diversity the Euro will keep it there. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Well, the GFS goes back to its ice age idea in the d11-15 range.Iceagelater.com 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Well, with some more luck, hard work, prayers and diversity the Euro will keep it there. What is Celine Dion showing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 22, 2016 Report Share Posted August 22, 2016 Never go full GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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