Geos Posted August 31, 2016 Report Share Posted August 31, 2016 The first month of meteorological autumn is almost upon us. CFS showing near normal to slightly above normal in the region. Little low on precip - west. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 31, 2016 Report Share Posted August 31, 2016 Looks like the first 1/3 of the month could be the coolest in a long time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 31, 2016 Report Share Posted August 31, 2016 Looks like the first 1/3 of the month could be the coolest in a long time.CFSvC-3PO would beg to differ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like the first 1/3 of the month could be the coolest in a long time. Last year PDX averaged 5.9F below normal through the first 7 days of September. It will be tough to beat that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Last year PDX averaged 5.9F below normal through the first 7 days of September. It will be tough to beat that.That's only like 23% of the month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 That's only like 23% of the month. Good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 The CPC dropped their September forecast from a high chance of above normal to equal chance on today's update. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Last year PDX averaged 5.9F below normal through the first 7 days of September. It will be tough to beat that. It's actually possible. The general pattern is capable of doing it, but it will come down to the details. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Today's 12z GFS got me to thinking 1972 just a little bit. It would be pretty exciting if it verified. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Today's 12z GFS got me to thinking 1972 just a little bit. It would be pretty exciting if it verified. Wasn't 72 heading into a strong Nino? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Wasn't 72 heading into a strong Nino? It was. That was one of the strangest El Nino seasons on record. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 It was. That was one of the strangest El Nino seasons on record. The thing is though, from an observed temperature standpoint at the surface that winter had a pretty typical El Nino signature. At least on a macro level. The cold was done by January 12th and the rest of the winter was typical Nino blues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 For a strange El Nino winter, I like 1987-88. Consistently chilly through January and into early February, which is something you don't normally see in a moderate or strong Nino. Of the 11 El Nino winters since 1950 that averaged at least a 1.0 ONI between Oct-Dec, 1987-88 is the only one where the coldest weather of the season occurred in the late January/early February period (35/22 at PDX on 2/2). In a typical Nino that calendar stretch is reliably mild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 For a strange El Nino winter, I like 1987-88. Consistently chilly through January and into early February, which is something you don't normally see in a moderate or strong Nino. Of the 11 El Nino winters since 1950 that averaged at least a 1.0 ONI between Oct-Dec, 1987-88 is the only one where the coldest weather of the season occurred in the late January/early February period (35/22 at PDX on 2/2). In a typical Nino that calendar stretch is reliably mild.February-March 1988 were very ridgy though, and the coldest stretch overall was in the late December/beginning of January period, both of which are typical Niño traits. I think 1968-69 and 1896-97 take the prize as "weirdest" El Niños. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I pulled off to take a slower and safer route with the wife and baby in the car, took a video along the way. https://goo.gl/photos/2nMkvdf1iREsKcm67 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I pulled off to take a slower and safer route with the wife and baby in the car, took a video along the way. https://goo.gl/photos/2nMkvdf1iREsKcm67Impressive storm cell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I pulled off to take a slower and safer route with the wife and baby in the car, took a video along the way. https://goo.gl/photos/2nMkvdf1iREsKcm67Awesome video, man! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Impressive storm cell. Scared the out of my wife, lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Awesome video, man! Thanks, you would have seen it sooner if you would check your messenger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 February-March 1988 were very ridgy though, and the coldest stretch overall was in the late December/beginning of January period, both of which are typical Niño traits. I think 1968-69 and 1896-97 take the prize as "weirdest" El Niños. 1968-69 was a borderline weak/moderate Nino though. 1987-88 was solidly moderate, bordering on strong at least if you use the ONI index. I like 1896-97 in this example. No freezes at downtown Portland between December 2nd and January 10th, then an Arctic blast in late January. Exactly the opposite of what you would expect in a Nino winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1.58" in one hour @ Sedro Woolley http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=SWYW1&table=1&banner=off 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1968-69 was a borderline weak/moderate Nino though. 1987-88 was solidly moderate, bordering on strong at least if you use the ONI index. I like 1896-97 in this example. No freezes at downtown Portland between December 2nd and January 10th, then an Arctic blast in late January. Exactly the opposite of what you would expect in a Nino winter. Also the coldest March on record for Portland in 1897. Very Nina like. March is generally a blowtorch in a stronger El Nino. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1968-69 was a borderline weak/moderate Nino though. 1987-88 was solidly moderate, bordering on strong at least if you use the ONI index. I like 1896-97 in this example. No freezes at downtown Portland between December 2nd and January 10th, then an Arctic blast in late January. Exactly the opposite of what you would expect in a Nino winter. I think March 1897 being that cold was the most bizarre thing about that Nino. You can almost always count on February and March being warm in a Nino, but that March was the coldest on record for Portland. An average high of 45.7 is just nuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1.58" in one hour @ Sedro Woolley http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=SWYW1&table=1&banner=off Incredible. I couldn't believe how strong the cell was while driving through it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1.58" in one hour @ Sedro Woolley http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=SWYW1&table=1&banner=off I'm wondering if that's one of the higher hourly rainfall totals ever recorded in the lowlands of Western WA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Also the coldest March on record for Portland in 1897. Very Nina like. March is generally a blowtorch in a stronger El Nino. That's a good point about March. That cold season shared a number of similarities with 1955-56, a strong Nina. Both had major cold spells in November, late January, and March. That's definitely more of a Nina progression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Incredible. I couldn't believe how strong the cell was while driving through it That was some seriously heavy rain in that video. I've only seen it rain that hard a couple times in Portland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Although all the action is just south of us, that line of heavy precip is holding together nicely. Lightning will light up the room here and there. Started raining hard enough on the way home that I pulled off to take a slower and safer route with the wife and baby in the car, took a video along the way. https://goo.gl/photos/2nMkvdf1iREsKcm67 That is impressive. Still going too. Although it seems to be moving more towards the mountains now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'm wondering if that's one of the higher hourly rainfall totals ever recorded in the lowlands of Western WA. I'm not sure, but yeah it has to be up there. The PDX record for one hour is only 1.03". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 1.58" in one hour @ Sedro Woolley http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=SWYW1&table=1&banner=off This station just updated. 2.55" in two hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 This station just updated. 2.55" in two hours. Pretty amazed the cell held together as long as it did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'm not sure, but yeah it has to be up there. The PDX record for one hour is only 1.03". Any idea where those records are kept? Would love to take a look for the Whatcom / Skagit County area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Thanks, you would have seen it sooner if you would check your messenger Lol, sorry. For some reason I haven't gotten notifications from Facebook messenger since I updated to IOS 9.3.5. Have to check it manually..meh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Any idea where those records are kept? Would love to take a look for the Whatcom / Skagit County area As far as I know, the short term rainfall records are only kept at first order stations. Portland, Seattle, etc. For example the Portland NWS has rainfall records for PDX on their website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 The ECMWF is very chilly for the entire run. Really nippy shortwave diving toward us at the end. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 As far as I know, the short term rainfall records are only kept at first order stations. Portland, Seattle, etc. For example the Portland NWS has rainfall records for PDX on their website. Thanks for the info, was worth a try Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 The ECMWF is very chilly for the entire run. Really nippy shortwave diving toward us at the end.Not a fan of that +NAM developing during week2. Will make it easier for the PV aloft to strengthen uninhibited, though I guess one should expect a strong early-winter PV in a +QBO anyway. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Not a fan of that +NAM developing during week2. Will make it easier for the PV aloft to strengthen uninhibited, though I guess one should expect a strong early-winter PV in a +QBO anyway. Isn't September a bit early for the PV to get going? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Isn't September a bit early for the PV to get going?September is when it gets going..the dominoes start falling in earnest from mid/late September through mid/late October. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2016 Report Share Posted September 1, 2016 Thanks for the info, was worth a try I wish COOP stations kept more records like that. Would definitely give us a better idea how historic tonight's rainfall was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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