September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Don't they always get nailed?   

 

He was saying anomalously nailed.

[ShawniganLake]

He was saying anomalously nailed.

Yea. Chicago's climate isn't that brutally cold really. Obviously they will see their fair share of cold days though.  Similar to the BC Okanagan Valley. 

[MossMan]

I think it may go below 40 here tonight. Much faster temp drop than I expected and I was expecting it to be pretty good.

Currently 54 degrees here and breezy.

[TT-SEA]

Currently 54 degrees here and breezy.

 

 

Yeah... some high and mid level clouds formed overnight.   SEA did not even get down to the normal low.

 

Side note... SEA is now exactly at normal for September.  

 

Still running way being Bellingham though which is almost +1.0.  

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensembles trending warmer as we head into October...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Nice morning. An interesting band of high clouds moving overhead.

[Jesse]

00z Euro and its ensembles are looking impressively troughy over the next 10 days.

[luminen]

11F this morning in Tok, Alaska.

[Geos]

Yea. Chicago's climate isn't that brutally cold really. Obviously they will see their fair share of cold days though.  Similar to the BC Okanagan Valley. 

 

Most winters it isn't, but there's periods where it is pretty brutal.

 

Went down to 47° this morning. Still cloudy here in central King County.

 

[Jesse]

It's pretty striking how different the low level air masses are between SEA and PDX tonight. SEA is much cooler/ drier. That cold front must have stalled just south of here. Today was amazing up this way with brisk north winds and fairly low dps.

Ironically, PDX ended up three degrees cooler than SEA this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

42F here this morning. The coldest I could find on Vancouver island was a 34F low up near Comox

[Jesse]

12Z GFS ensembles look below average for the entire run for PDX.

 

I am sure they look warmer for SEA, but then again that was the general theme this entire month, and PDX is -1.5 while SEA is just around average. So maybe they aren't that far off.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GFS ensembles look below average for the entire run for PDX.

 

I am sure they look warmer for SEA, but then again that was the general theme this entire month, and PDX is -1.5 while SEA is just around average. So maybe they aren't that far off.

Canadian was pretty chilly too. BC turns much colder late in the run as well. Strong SE ridge.

[Jesse]

Canadian was pretty chilly too. BC turns much colder late in the run as well. Strong SE ridge.

How are you guys running up there this month so far, compared to last year?

[Phil]

New ECMWF weeklies are strange looking. Basically revert to something resembling a Niño for most of the run. Color me skeptical.

[Jesse]

New ECMWF weeklies are strange looking. Basically revert to something resembling a Niño for most of the run. Color me skeptical.

Haven't they been doing that for months now?

 

I remember the much celebrated runs that showed a warm, ridgy September for the PNW. That didn't work out too well...

[Phil]

Haven't they been doing that for months now?

They've been warm biased in the PNW out the wazoo since June, yeah, but I'm referring to the general orientation of the pattern and tropical convection on this run. Sort of like 2014/15 I think. Looks like BS to me.

[ShawniganLake]

How are you guys running up there this month so far, compared to last year?

Shawnigan Lake is normal for the month. 1.6F warmer than last year.

 

Victoria is roughly +0.8F for September. 2.2F warmer than last September.

[Jesse]

Shawnigan Lake is normal for the month. 1.6F warmer than last year.

 

Victoria is roughly +0.8F for September. 2.2F warmer than last September.

How strange.

 

Then you have this for the majority of the region state side. Cooler overall than last September.

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

How strange.

 

Then you have this for the majority of the region state side. Cooler overall than last September.

 

 

 

image.png

Someone has to represent diversity. We can't all conform to the rest of the region, can we!?

[Phil]

Lol @ Astoria. Just one below average day all month? Very different "pattern" this time, as well. Running a healthy +2.3 for the month as a whole. #BS

[Jesse]

Solidly cool Euro run.

[Front Ranger]

Solidly cool Euro run.

 

Easily cooler than 0z, in fact.

[Jesse]

Easily cooler than 0z, in fact.

 

There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now!

[Front Ranger]

Lol @ Astoria. Just one below average day all month? Very different "pattern" this time, as well. Running a healthy +2.3 for the month as a whole. #BS

 

Every month that goes by with them as a big outlier, the odds go up that something's not right.

 

It's been 3 straight months, I'd say at least 50% chance now the sensor is out of whack.

[Phil]

There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now!

Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines.

[TT-SEA]

Easily cooler than 0z, in fact.

 

Good storm in the middle of next week as well.

 

The system Sunday still goes way south but then the jet lifts a little more north.    Still a ripe environment for a windstorm as I mentioned earlier this week.

[Front Ranger]

There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now!

 

Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley. 

 

 

[Jesse]

Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley. 

 

troll1.jpg

 

That's pretty close to how I imagine him looking in my head.

 

Complete with the hand around the neck.

[TT-SEA]

Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines.

 

 

Don't feed him... he is anxious enough.   

[Phil]

Every month that goes by with them as a big outlier, the odds go up that something's not right.

 

It's been 3 straight months, I'd say at least 50% chance now the sensor is out of whack.

Yeah, the ratio between AST's temperatures and the 925mb temperatures changed abruptly this summer (regardless of the pattern). That's usually a clue that something is wrong.

[Timmy Supercell]

Here September 2015 was pretty much normal (only -0.1 from normal Mean). Despite some days in the 50's we managed many way above average highs in the 90's and 80's last year, evened things out. This month is quite a bit cooler, no late summer "heatwaves" in the last month. If the next 3 highs pan out we're looking at -1.7 for this months Mean.

[Jesse]

Next it'll be "we're blowing our load too early", or something along those lines.

 

Gotta try our best to find new and creative ways to attempt to upset Jim!

 

It's why the forum is here.

[ShawniganLake]

Perfect name for the infamous Tim smiley.

 

troll1.jpg

He's not the only one guilty of those.

[BLI snowman]

There's a reason we aren't seeing day ten frames with trollsmileys right now!

 

I expect to see several big model images the next time the Euro shows a split flow pattern with a trough in a holding pattern 200 miles off the CA coast.

[TT-SEA]

I expect to see several big model images the next time the Euro shows a split flow pattern with a trough in a holding pattern 200 miles off the CA coast.

 

That is a nice pattern!   

[Phil]

Key to this 12z ECMWF run is the W/SW displacement of the NPAC vortex. Constructively interfereres with the -EPO, which keeps western troughing in place.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6E93E489-BAAA-4B60-9922-9CB85788BFD3_zpswc1ooscu.gif

[Phil]

Also, ECMWF depicts a cat-5 monster sitting off the SE coast, with ridging building in from the west. Delicate situation.

[Phil]

It's amazing to me how many people are including El Niño and/or -QBO years in their analog packages, solely based off the "blob" in the NPAC. Is there an entire world of literature and/or quantitatively-derived research that I'm foolishly unaware of? What am I missing?

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the ratio between AST's temperatures and the 925mb temperatures changed abruptly this summer (regardless of the pattern). That's usually a clue that something is wrong.

Definitely more compelling with the changing season.