TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not the smiley! Yes! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend. Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon. Interesting. And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.Yeah he supposedly also has me on ignore...and has also replied to some of my posts. Whatever. I feel like the "ignore" function is kind of dumb anyway. Anyway, dry morning so far! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend. Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon. Interesting. And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.I think you knew what you were up to. Just as the other person knew what he was up to.... 3 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think you knew what you were up to. Just as the other person knew what he was up to.... Actually not. I saw a big change in the GFS. I would report it either way... good or bad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Radar is never coming back. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think you knew what you were up to. Just as the other person knew what he was up to.... Just reporting the models. When the Euro and EPS are more adamant on a rainy pattern it's probably not a good idea to jump on a few stray GFS runs. GFS ensembles look wetter for the weekend as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Radar is never coming back.They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just reporting the models. When the Euro and EPS are more adamant on a rainy pattern it's probably not a good idea to jump on a few stray GFS runs. GFS ensembles look wetter for the weekend as well. 2 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too. Did they say when they plan on upgrading KMAX? I wonder if we might get something pretty active down here and they somehow ruin it conveniently like they did with the Aug 2012 severe storm here. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 They are saying Thursday morning. Pretty bad timing though, with some fairly rainy systems moving through the next few days, and quite possibly this weekend too. Don't count on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Don't count on it.I have plans that require heavy rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The long range operational GFS is very wet. Thank goodness! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Radar is never coming back. Apparently took the Euro with it. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows moisture plume lifting north early on Saturday... with dry, warm conditions for most places on Sunday. That basically agrees with its 00Z run. Portland is pretty much dry from Friday morning through the entire weekend. Heavier rain is focused on SW BC. Looks like a humid pattern for western WA and OR (by October standards). Monday and most of Tuesday also shown to be dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 If they don't fix the PDX radar in the next 48 hours... they will have about 5 extra days after that when it won't be needed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z ECMWF still showing an active pattern in the 8-10 day period. But it has backed off what was shown to be an active pattern earlier. Here is next Monday from the ECMWF when it was 10 days out... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-lXlgbn.png And now Monday on the latest run... http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls02-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-GcHmhV.png It will be interesting if it continues to back off again or if it has a good handle on the pattern now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 You know what they say, even a broken radar is right twice a day... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows Matthew getting right up to SE GA on Saturday morning before turning back around and weakening over the weekend east of Florida. Strange path. Looks like it's already weakened by the time it gets to GA, having hit the east coast of Florida. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows Matthew getting right up to SE GA on Saturday morning before turning back around and weakening over the weekend east of Florida. Strange path. Garbage model info most likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have only about 1.25" of rain on the month so we need more. If it didn't rain the rest of the month it would be a dry month! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z ECMWF shows moisture plume lifting north early on Saturday... with dry, warm conditions for most places on Sunday. That basically agrees with its 00Z run. Portland is pretty much dry from Friday morning through the entire weekend. Heavier rain is focused on SW BC. Looks like a humid pattern for western WA and OR (by October standards). Monday and most of Tuesday also shown to be dry. Sounds like a very typical October pattern. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like it's already weakened by the time it gets to GA, having hit the east coast of Florida. On the 12Z ECMWF it literally skirts the entire east coast of Florida and then follows the SE GA and SC coastline without weakening too much... then turns away and heads to the SE and out to sea. An absolute worst case scenario track as far as damage area and number of people directly affected. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Sounds like a very typical October pattern. Indeed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 No kidding. It hits the same spot in Florida twice. 90% chance someone turns that into a conspiracy theory... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 No kidding. It hits the same spot in Florida twice. Unusual, but such crazy tracks have happened before. Regardless, looks like anywhere from FL to NC could be under the gun. Really surprised to hear this was the first major hurricane to strike Haiti in 50 years. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 This article has a bunch of examples of meandering, looping hurricanes: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/bizarre-hurricane-paths-20130807 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Rob, isn't it about time for you to start posting? We're in October now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Getting worried about the Georgia Isles. That area is dear to my heart like nowhere else. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Notable similarities to 2010 on the latest modeling. Keeps trending stronger with the polar blocking as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I have plans that require heavy rain.Looks like you are out of luck this weekend unfortunately. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 It was pouring like a tropical monsoon today in downtown Vancouver. Nice big drops of tasty rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I got my first sub 60 high today. Cool damp day. The 18z GFS shows the northern branch digging into the northern half of WA this weekend. I hope that continues to trend cooler. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 I got my first sub 60 high today. Cool damp day. The 18z GFS shows the northern branch digging into the northern half of WA this weekend. I hope that continues to trend cooler. 56515655 To start the month here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jesse, you're really hittin the funny bone with Mark. He just did a new thread and indirectly referenced you, eerily familiar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Get a room already......... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Jessie, you're really hittin the funny bone with Mark. He just did a new thread and indirectly referenced you, eerily familiar. Weenie meltdowns galore is my prediction for this winter! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Lots of moderate rain at my house tonight. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 Weenie meltdowns galore is my prediction for this winter!And January will have 31 days. But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 5, 2016 Report Share Posted October 5, 2016 And January will have 31 days. But yeah, it's the first winter in a while with any irrational expectations. Some emotional calisthenics may be in order. We knew last year was going to suck. I see a 2011-12 or 2010-11 as kind of a best case scenario for this winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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