October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Nope. You?

Nope. You're the meteorologist!

[westcoastexpat]

Nope. You're the meteorologist!

 

I am, but I forecast for a couple days out. I am not a climatologist.

[snow_wizard]

Now the snowfall map that Bastardi had up last night is gone and his new one shows us below normal snowfall.  WTF?  Was I seeing things last night?

[snow_wizard]

One thing that really puzzles me with Bastardi's thinking for this winter is the fact he continually brings up the model bias showing the East too warm the last two winters.  Can he seriously not realize how different the tropics are this year compared to those?

[Front Ranger]

There's definitely room for debate if we strictly talk about the Western lowlands. But that's a fairly narrow segment of the PNW. 

 

 

Depends on how you look at it. 2007 had more

 

 

 

Both places got colder in 2007. EUG had 4 sub-freezing highs in 2007, 2 in 2004.

 

Hey, agree to disagree on duration not mattering for evaluating an event. To me, Dec 1972 would not have been the same if it only lasted 2 days, for example.

 

 

As far as cold goes, 2007 was pretty close to 2004 for the western lowlands. Factoring both duration and lows, not just highs at PDX, of course.

 

Statman, I think my point was pretty clear from the beginning. I wasn't comparing just the airmasses, but also the event overall for the western lowlands. 

 

Sometimes you see me as on the polar opposite end of the spectrum and challenging you, when in reality I'm just adding to or bringing a slightly different angle to the discussion. Look at your first post up at the top - we agree more than you seem to think. 

[TT-SEA]

Now the snowfall map that Bastardi had up last night is gone and his new one shows us below normal snowfall.  WTF?  Was I seeing things last night?

 

 

He must be the single greatest forecaster of all time.   Do his maps make it snow or not snow in your backyard??

[ShawniganLake]

One thing that really puzzles me with Bastardi's thinking for this winter is the fact he continually brings up the model bias showing the East too warm the last two winters.  Can he seriously not realize how different the tropics are this year compared to those?

Well, I just quickly watched his Saturday summary video, fast forwarded thru most of it.  He doesn't think the Indian ocean is going to cooperate and the Nina will be quickly wiped out.  Also thinks we might be heading towards a Nino next year.  He might not be leaning too heavily on the ENSO this year.  He definitely is in love with the Warm PDO ("warm ring along the west coast") driving cold into the east.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Reading this thread I am absolutely stunned there is even a comparison between 2004 and 2007. Regionally it is not even close. 2004 was a major arctic outbreak and an eyelash away from being top tier regionally. 

[stuffradio]

Now the snowfall map that Bastardi had up last night is gone and his new one shows us below normal snowfall.  WTF?  Was I seeing things last night?

No, I saw it this morning just an hour ago, now that page is very different

[luminen]

All those east coasters swear by the warm blob being responsible for their recent run of good winters. 

[stuffradio]

Reading this thread I am absolutely stunned there is even a comparison between 2004 and 2007. Regionally it is not even close. 2004 was a major arctic outbreak and an eyelash away from being top tier regionally. 

2007 outperformed 2004 for me. Like I said, it's region based.

[snow_wizard]

Well, I just quickly watched his Saturday summary video, fast forwarded thru most of it.  He doesn't think the Indian ocean is going to cooperate and the Nina will be quickly wiped out.  Also thinks we might be heading towards a Nino next year.  He might not be leaning too heavily on the ENSO this year.  He definitely is in love with the Warm PDO ("warm ring along the west coast") driving cold into the east.

 

I think it's pretty dubious to think a warm strip of water along the West Coast will equate to a cold east.  The 500mb pattern can set up however it pleases.  As for a Nino next year...super Ninos ALWAYS have a major La Nina afterward.  No way we could go from a super Nino to short lived weak La Nina to a Nino again...at least historically speaking.

[TT-SEA]

No, I saw it this morning just an hour ago, now that page is very different

He must be God himself!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can see why people remember 2007 more fondly though. But from an airmass perspective 2004 was a beast. 

 

Looking at 2007 at my location, it was a really nice outbreak. 6 straight sub freezing highs 10" of snow and a 26/15 day. 

[snow_wizard]

Reading this thread I am absolutely stunned there is even a comparison between 2004 and 2007. Regionally it is not even close. 2004 was a major arctic outbreak and an eyelash away from being top tier regionally. 

 

There is good reason.  For me 2007 was better based on the observations IMBY.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2007 was better here. 13 inches on December 2 and 3.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

44 inches of snow that season.

[Phil]

One thing that really puzzles me with Bastardi's thinking for this winter is the fact he continually brings up the model bias showing the East too warm the last two winters. Can he seriously not realize how different the tropics are this year compared to those?

Actually, the ECMWF seasonal has a raging warm bias around here, regardless of the ENSO sign. It's warm biased just about everywhere, in fact, and appears to over-couple with mid latitude SSTAs.

[Phil]

All those east coasters swear by the warm blob being responsible for their recent run of good winters.

Hey now, this east coaster certainly doesn't.

 

Regionalism is the Wx-Community version of racism.

[snow_wizard]

Hey now, this east coaster certainly doesn't.

 

Regionalism is the Wx-Community version of racism.

 

No doubt about that.  I would draw the line at trying to compare a warm ENSO season to a cold one though.

[wx_statman]

I know, it's funny that his favorite station contradicts his opinion on this.

 

And the entire debate is very out of left field. In that classic Flatiron devil's advocate playbook. 

 

Very much so!

[wx_statman]

No kidding. I wish there was more people from my area on here. No one on here lives in Spokane or even Coeur d'Alene. Everyone appears to be from the west side of the cascades. Would be nice to have some decent analysis of what happens over here.

 

Maybe I'm wrong (I hope)...

 

We used to have a regular poster from the Coeur d'Alene area, "andyidaho." I don't know what ever happened to him.

[Bryant]

He must be the single greatest forecaster of all time. Do his maps make it snow or not snow in your backyard??

Back at it again with the quality posts!

[Phil]

No doubt about that. I would draw the line at trying to compare a warm ENSO season to a cold one though.

I've wasted so much time and energy bashing the blob/PDO stuff, much to the dismay of Flatiron et al. Thing is, if the PDO were deeply negative right now, east coast weenies would be ignoring it, while west coast weenies would be humping it.

 

That said, I definitely agree with sticking to weak Niña or neutral analogs this year. The Niña circulation might be pathetic, but this is certainly no Niño year.

[Brennan]

From my 9th grade perspective at the time, January 2004 was epic. It was also the first true arctic blast with lasting snow since 1996. January 2004 blast... i don't even know what to say. Recorded a 17-10 day imoby with 6" of snow on the ground. Second coldest recorded for me behind 17-12 in November 2006.

[Bryant]

From my 9th grade perspective at the time, January 2004 was epic. It was also the first true arctic blast with lasting snow since 1996. January 2004 blast... i don't even know what to say. Recorded a 17-10 day imoby with 6" of snow on the ground. Second coldest recorded for me behind 17-12 in November 2006.

Your knowledge and memory of events always amaze me

[TT-SEA]

Back at it again with the quality posts!

Bastardi must determine what will actually happen. Sure seems like it from the discussion about him.

[wx_statman]

Statman, I think my point was pretty clear from the beginning. I wasn't comparing just the airmasses, but also the event overall for the western lowlands. 

 

Sometimes you see me as on the polar opposite end of the spectrum and challenging you, when in reality I'm just adding to or bringing a slightly different angle to the discussion. Look at your first post up at the top - we agree more than you seem to think. 

 

This is besides the point. 

 

Why did you start this debate? You're not addressing my point:

 

Do you consider January 2007 to be a "major" Arctic outbreak? Or are you suggesting that neither January 2004 or January 2007 were major Arctic outbreaks, at least in the Western lowlands? If that's the case, are you suggesting we re-frame the narrative to say that we haven't seen a "major" Arctic outbreak in January since some earlier year, be it 1996 or 1982 or 1980? Remember, this is the statement you chose to respond to, originally:

 

How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004?

 

Either way, I stand 100% behind my original statement. For the PNW as a whole, taking into account both sides of the Cascades, we haven't seen a major Arctic outbreak in January since 2004. 

[Front Ranger]

Reading this thread I am absolutely stunned there is even a comparison between 2004 and 2007. Regionally it is not even close. 2004 was a major arctic outbreak and an eyelash away from being top tier regionally.

A lot of places barely got below 20 in 2004. Some didn't. So there's that.

[Front Ranger]

This is besides the point.

 

Why did you start this debate? You're not addressing my point:

 

Do you consider January 2007 to be a "major" Arctic outbreak? Or are you suggesting that neither January 2004 or January 2007 were major Arctic outbreaks, at least in the Western lowlands? If that's the case, are you suggesting we re-frame the narrative to say that we haven't seen a "major" Arctic outbreak in January since some earlier year, be it 1996 or 1982 or 1980? Remember, this is the statement you chose to respond to, originally:

 

How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004?

 

Either way, I stand 100% behind my original statement. For the PNW as a whole, taking into account both sides of the Cascades, we haven't seen a major Arctic outbreak in January since 2004.

You got more specific in following statements to your original, after I did as well. No reason to rehash things, it's just not that big of a deal. I wasn't intending a debate, just pointing out that depending on how you look at it, Jan 2007 was a very comparable event for many areas. Mainly because of lows and duration.

 

One could argue the last "major" January Arctic outbreak for the PNW was 2007, 2004, 1996, 1980, or further back... depending on the criteria.

[stuffradio]

I could even argue Jan 2012 was a better arctic outbreak than 2007 and 2004 if we still want to argue 2004 was so great, for my backyard.

[snow_wizard]

From my 9th grade perspective at the time, January 2004 was epic. It was also the first true arctic blast with lasting snow since 1996. January 2004 blast... i don't even know what to say. Recorded a 17-10 day imoby with 6" of snow on the ground. Second coldest recorded for me behind 17-12 in November 2006.

 

In 2004 it was a matter of being out of the windy locations.  The wind never stopped here so the temps weren't as good as 2007.  As I've also mentioned 2007 was much better from a clear / cold pattern with snow on the ground perspective than 2004.

[TT-SEA]

Halloween day and night look very wet on the 12Z ECMWF. Those with WeatherBell should start using the ECMWF surface maps over the WRF whenever they don't agree. The ECMWF surface maps are far superior to the WRF and Cliff Mass will be the first to tell you that.

[MossMan]

In 2004 it was a matter of being out of the windy locations. The wind never stopped here so the temps weren't as good as 2007. As I've also mentioned 2007 was much better from a clear / cold pattern with snow on the ground perspective than 2004.

Jan 1996 was comparable to 07 in my location from my memory in terms of temp, length, and snow depth. 04 was ok but short lived from what I remember.

[Bryant]

Bastardi must determine what will actually happen. Sure seems like it from the discussion about him.

He makes forecasts that many people look at, why are you critiquing Jim for noticing a change? Would you even post on this forum if Jim wasn't here to feed your disgusting obsession?

[TT-SEA]

He makes forecasts that many people look at, why are you critiquing Jim for noticing a change? Would you even post on this forum if Jim wasn't here to feed your disgusting obsession?

You only post to protect Jim from nothing... disgusting. I post plenty. We completely discredit Bastardi and then worry about every forecast he makes.

[Bryant]

You only post to protect Jim from nothing... disgusting. I post plenty. We completely discredit Bastardi and then worry about every forecast he makes.

I'm not posting to protect Jim, I'm posting to point out your day to day BS

[TT-SEA]

I'm not posting to protect Jim, I'm posting to point out your day to day BS

Sure Bryant.    Not what all the PMs in my box say about you.

[TT-SEA]

Election day 'heat' wave?

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls00/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-adz8LQ.png

[wx_statman]

You got more specific in following statements to your original, after I did as well. No reason to rehash things, it's just not that big of a deal. I wasn't intending a debate, just pointing out that depending on how you look at it, Jan 2007 was a very comparable event for many areas. Mainly because of lows and duration.

 

One could argue the last "major" January Arctic outbreak for the PNW was 2007, 2004, 1996, 1980, or further back... depending on the criteria.

 

That would not be a legitimate argument, IMO. Data doesn't support it. Unless you're willing to significantly water down the term "major" as it pertains to regional Arctic outbreaks, especially in a historical context.