November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Still 63 degrees at 6pm! Warm winds a blowin.

[seattleweatherguy]

The 18z ensemble mean shows 850s dropping to zero by the 20th.

 

If the 850s drop to 0, I know that means it's getting colder. But what does it mean in terms of temps?

[Deweydog]

If the 850s drop to 0, I know that means it's getting colder. But what does it mean in terms of temps?

 

Cold, if you're on a mountain.  

[westcoastexpat]

How was 1975/76 for us? That was a Nina year that had a very warm November.

[crf450ish]

With all of the ancient analogs aside, and the current pattern and model discussion aside, I believe, with my limited knowledge, that whether or not we see an epic winter this winter (compared to the last few), that the entire globe is trending towards a dramatic climate change, for the cooler. Now, I say that based on, yet again, my limited knowledge of solar activity and historic climatic changes. Yes, of course, within the last hundred years or so mankind has added variables to the atmosphere, regarding CO2 and the industrial revolution. Is there really any hard scientific evidence that proves that we are really responsible for the warming trend we have endured since the early 70's? 

 

It seems to me as if "global" warming has been more of political standpoint vs. a humanitarian (historical climate) standpoint. I'm not really educated enough to make a decent argument against the subject, but I know how I feel about it and thats that. History will repeat itself one way or another. We are just far enough away from the sun to remain warm most of time as well as dramatically cold the other amount of time we aren't warm.

 

So whether or not we have an epic winter this winter is not indicative that we are indeed heading into a cooling trend for the next several years, if not decades. That is my Tony Robbins speech for the winter.

 

Just my $.02...

[crf450ish]

Cold, if you're on a mountain.  

Is there some sort of mathematical formula that can be used to determine how cold surface temps are if you know what 500MB temps are?

[Deweydog]

Is there some sort of mathematical formula that can be used to determine how cold surface temps are if you know what 500MB temps are?

 

Well, 850mb temps are free-air temps at around 5,000 above sea level.  Problem is, during the cold season it's very common to have inversions in place so it can be tough to consistently determine low elevation temps based on them.  

[snow_wizard]

How was 1975/76 for us? That was a Nina year that had a very warm November.

 

Not great.  The PJ flooded the country that season, but that was a strong Nina.  1949 was another example BTW.

[snow_wizard]

SEA actually over performed on a low temp this morning.  I was almost shocked when I saw they dropped to 42.

[Brennan]

66* and breezy at 6:15 in dt bellingham.

[snow_wizard]

66* and breezy at 6:15 in dt bellingham.

 

Definite torch.

[TT-SEA]

71/55 here and sunny most of the time... not a bad June day.   

[Front Ranger]

SEA actually over performed on a low temp this morning.  I was almost shocked when I saw they dropped to 42.

 

Not good. The greater the torch right now the better.

[snow_wizard]

Not good. The greater the torch right now the better.

 

The high today made up for it.

[stuffradio]

With all of the ancient analogs aside, and the current pattern and model discussion aside, I believe, with my limited knowledge, that whether or not we see an epic winter this winter (compared to the last few), that the entire globe is trending towards a dramatic climate change, for the cooler. Now, I say that based on, yet again, my limited knowledge of solar activity and historic climatic changes. Yes, of course, within the last hundred years or so mankind has added variables to the atmosphere, regarding CO2 and the industrial revolution. Is there really any hard scientific evidence that proves that we are really responsible for the warming trend we have endured since the early 70's? 

 

It seems to me as if "global" warming has been more of political standpoint vs. a humanitarian (historical climate) standpoint. I'm not really educated enough to make a decent argument against the subject, but I know how I feel about it and thats that. History will repeat itself one way or another. We are just far enough away from the sun to remain warm most of time as well as dramatically cold the other amount of time we aren't warm.

 

So whether or not we have an epic winter this winter is not indicative that we are indeed heading into a cooling trend for the next several years, if not decades. That is my Tony Robbins speech for the winter.

 

Just my $.02...

Whatever effects we do/are having, I believe it's being mitigated (however temporarily) by the oceans sucking everything up. The oceans are act like a heat sink.

[Phil]

How was 1975/76 for us? That was a Nina year that had a very warm November.

Not a good analog, IMO.

[stuffradio]

Someone on another American forum said he heavily favours 98-99 for his analog.

[BLI snowman]

How was 1975/76 for us? That was a Nina year that had a very warm November.

That was actually a pretty cool November. Modified arctic air and snow at the end. One highlight of an otherwise dull year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 34 minutes!

[MossMan]

Someone on another American forum said he heavily favours 98-99 for his analog.

The week of Christmas was lovely with about a foot of snow and lots of cold!

[Timmy Supercell]

67/29 here at KLMT, with freezing fog (THICK) around 8-9am. Not quite like an indian summer, but somewhere along those lines.

 

81/29 would have been more dynamic (that was 10/13/2014, with 1/10th mile visibility in the AM as well).

But this is November, 67 was 3 degrees away from the record of 70 in 2009. Gotta learn my place...

 

Edit: Forgot to add how comfy it was in the evening, very SLOW cooling for this time of year. Just thought I'd point this out. It had the feeling of a mid Spring evening to me. Perhaps the airport cooled some decently but here at my house in a t-shirt and shorts definitely didn't feel like 50 to me (that was an hour ago).

[Tundra]

Huge changes in the d11-15 12z EPS. Is this for real, arising via that developing MJO? Or just another head-fake?

 

Would be in line with my original ideas for the second half of November, however, this is going to be a huge fight either way, much more so than I was thinking.

It might be. I just saw the maps and if it verifies it will be very close to what the CESM had been predicting all along for November adding to the current observed anomalies so far. It also looks similar to what the 12z GFS in the long range showed. I've never seen a model like the CESM be this accurate ever if this is the case.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4vuzOmB.jpg

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110412/384/sfct_anom.na.png

http://i.imgur.com/Uerg41E.png

 

Ed Vallee ‏@EdValleeWx "European Ensemble is interesting in the 11-15 day period. I would leave the door open for a colder risk by 11/20 for a time."

 

http://i.imgur.com/Dhpupkt.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/794644781750222848

[Front Ranger]

The week of Christmas was lovely with about a foot of snow and lots of cold!

 

You got a foot of snow in Dec 1998? Most places didn't see anywhere near that.

[stuffradio]

You got a foot of snow in Dec 1998? Most places didn't see anywhere near that.

I had close to a foot of snow in December 98. It was a white Christmas, but it rained a lot on Christmas apparently.

[stuffradio]

The week of Christmas was lovely with about a foot of snow and lots of cold!

It was cold leading up to Christmas, then I appeared to have an overrunning event.

[stuffradio]

JB is funny. He made a post about how 98 is used an anlog, and he went on to say, if you just drop the years 05-06 and 98-99, the model shows a cold winter for the east.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS much improved. After day 8 upstream over eastern Siberia/Bering Sea the pattern change begins. It's not ideal YET, but the warm anomaly and ridge around 150 W poking up into Alaska does give some promise.

 

HR 192 - 384 500mb Anomaly

Animated Gif http://imgur.com/SvrIypO

[Phil]

JB is funny. He made a post about how 98 is used an anlog, and he went on to say, if you just drop the years 05-06 and 98-99, the model shows a cold winter for the east.

To be fair, both of those were strong -QBO years, so I'd drop them regardless of what they depict.

[HighlandExperience]

JB is funny. He made a post about how 98 is used an anlog, and he went on to say, if you just drop the years 05-06 and 98-99, the model shows a cold winter for the east.

I want to see Bastardi get pie on his face.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS would be a lot more interesting if there was a nearby cold air source to tap.

[MossMan]

You got a foot of snow in Dec 1998? Most places didn't see anywhere near that.

Yeah we had some sort of pscz or deformation band or something right in my area, it was absolute insanity on the roads since nobody was prepared for it since it wasn't forecasted. And then it got cold so it stuck around, had an overriding event on Christmas Eve I believe and was all rain Christmas Day. I have pics somewhere, if I find them I will have to scan and put them up on the picture thread.

[MossMan]

00z GFS much improved. After day 8 upstream over eastern Siberia/Bering Sea the pattern change begins. It's not ideal YET, but the warm anomaly and ridge around 150 W poking up into Alaska does give some promise.

 

HR 192 - 384 500mb Anomaly

Animated Gif http://imgur.com/SvrIypO

My gut is stil telling me the very end of November/very beginning of Dec!

[Phil]

I want to see Bastardi get pie on his face.

You've been rooting on east coast torches for awhile now. If we're lucky enough to score again this winter, I'm definitely rubbing it in your face.

[HighlandExperience]

[stuffradio]

Well, how's that for carrots! Quick hitting snow then dry for a few days. I'd take it.

[snow_wizard]

JB is funny. He made a post about how 98 is used an anlog, and he went on to say, if you just drop the years 05-06 and 98-99, the model shows a cold winter for the east.

 

He is nuts this year.  Bringing up a bunch of El Nino years as analogs also.

[snow_wizard]

I want to see Bastardi get pie on his face.

 

Almost certain this winter IMO.  There are so few Nina analogs that turned out the way he is predicting.  In almost every Nina winter we have been warm the rest of the country has torched hard.  1933-34 is the only real exception.

[Phil]

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is just perfect.  Solid -PNA after day 10, but it doesn't too carried away.  We don't want it to get too crazy too early.

[Phil]

Almost certain this winter IMO. There are so few Nina analogs that turned out the way he is predicting. In almost every Nina winter we have been warm the rest of the country has torched hard. 1933-34 is the only real exception.

I think 1980/81 might be another exception, but that was also a nearly snowless winter here despite the cold, so Bastardi would still bust.