MossMan Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Yup! Have always lived in Ferndale or Bellingham so it will be interesting to compare locations this yearHopefully it will be a great one! Us Western Washingtonians are way overdue. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Several pieces of good news this morning. 1. The ECMWF ensemble has the PNA down to zero by day 10.2. ECMWF ensemble mean shows above normal heights over the Eastern Aleutians / GOA during the 10 to 15 day period.3. Same with ECMWF ensemble control model4. GFS and ECMWF agree on a significant MJO wave emerging soon which should be in a good position for us by late Nov / early Dec. Right now this is all playing out how I wanted. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll sign onto 1921-22. That was the knickerbocker winter. The what? It is interesting there are a few parallels to 1921 going on. The very dry October in SE AK, the November torch (at least here), cold neutral ENSO, etc. EDIT: I just looked up what that was. Pretty remarkable it was cold here at the time that storm hit the East Coast. A great winter for all it appears. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The 12z operational GFS wasn't great, but the ensemble mean is the chilliest yet late in the month with 850s dropping to -1 to -2 on the mean. A very gradual cooling through the period beginning the middle of next week or so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I think Bastardi has lost all of his marbles now. Using the Brazilian model of all things! He admits he is out on a limb regarding this winter. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 12Z ECMWF basically shows 60 or warmer from tomorrow through Thursday in Seattle. And still around 60 on Friday. Getting close to 70 on Tuesday. Only rain is a quick little front on Tuesday night and it shows sunshine again on Wednesday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 November could get boring, real quick. Should get easier this week. Just went through the Canadian and GFS... both show almost completely dry weather during the daytime hours through Friday (after today of course). Nooooo.... it needs to rain more.... I'll sign onto 1921-22. That was the knickerbocker winter. I had to google that one. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Looks like the table could be set for some historic warmth this coming week. It all comes down to keeping the atmosphere mixed of course. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The what? It is interesting there are a few parallels to 1921 going on. The very dry October in SE AK, the November torch (at least here), cold neutral ENSO, etc. EDIT: I just looked up what that was. Pretty remarkable it was cold here at the time that storm hit the East Coast. A great winter for all it appears.Those are my favorite kind of winters. Arctic air sprawling over the country from coast to coast, constructively interfering EPO/NAO blocks, and a nice storm train in the middle. Haven't seen a winter like that since 1984/85, 1983/84, 1978/79, etc. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll take an order of 1983-84 mixed with 1978-79 for the win please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Apparently the Afghanistan model says no snow for the NE this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The 12z ECMWF once again wipes out all of the low pressure over the GOA and eastern Aleutians by day 10. A very good sign. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The answer is obvious. Big stuff early isn't nearly as impressive as big stuff in the heart of the winter. Recent history tells us if it hits hard early you can forget about January. If we ease into cooler weather and gradually work toward something big we get a lot of warning shot type events before the really big stuff. Early quickies are getting old. Obviously a huge exception like 1896, 1955, or 1985 would always be welcome.But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter. Historically speaking January / early Feb cold waves are more likely to bring snow, larger amounts of snow, and longer lasting periods with snow on the ground. Amazingly I once did some digging and found out Feb 2 is the most likely day of the year to have snow on the ground. At least for the Seattle area. You sure wouldn't know it by looking at recent years. Even looking at cold waves from this century. In December you had 2009 and 2013...both of which had little snow for good part of the Western lowlands. The only good January cold waves there have been are 2004, 2007, and 2012 all of which had snow. Going back a bit further you had 1996, 1993, 1982, 1980 all of which had significant snowfall for most places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Meteorologist Brett Anderson's interpretation of the latest EURO forecast model. "The model certainly has a warm look for the rest of November across the western two-thirds of the country as milder, Pacific air continues to infiltrate the region. One bit of news, it does look like there will be a reprieve from the stormy pattern across western BC during the week of Nov. 14-20. It is a little more tricky in the East as there will likely be some resistance with the northwesterly flow aloft. I believe the model is still a little too warm across southeast Canada and the eastern U.S., but with a lack of cross-polar flow and shrinking snow cover over northwest Canada and the northern Prairies the air masses that do come into the East from the northwest will be hard pressed to be all that cold. Overall, November could end up being another top five warmest on record from the Prairies to the Yukon/Northwest Territories." http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041303_nov4a.pnghttp://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041304_nov4b.pnghttp://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_11041305_nov4c.png http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-update-27/61175954 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Meteorologist Brett Anderson's interpretation of the latest EURO forecast model. "The model certainly has a warm look for the rest of November across the western two-thirds of the country as milder, Pacific air continues to infiltrate the region. One bit of news, it does look like there will be a reprieve from the stormy pattern across western BC during the week of Nov. 14-20. It is a little more tricky in the East as there will likely be some resistance with the northwesterly flow aloft. I believe the model is still a little too warm across southeast Canada and the eastern U.S., but with a lack of cross-polar flow and shrinking snow cover over northwest Canada and the northern Prairies the air masses that do come into the East from the northwest will be hard pressed to be all that cold. Overall, November could end up being another top five warmest on record from the Prairies to the Yukon/Northwest Territories." Yeah I think this is the most likely scenario...pretty warm Nov across most of interior North America. If we can get a ridge to pop in the NE Pacific perhaps a weak cold shot late month for parts of the west, but the odds don't seem too high for that to occur at this point. Also looks like most local resorts probably won't open until at least Thanksgiving, potentially later. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I think Bastardi has lost all of his marbles now. Using the Brazilian model of all things! He admits he is out on a limb regarding this winter. You must be new to Bastardi, he uses the Brazilian every year. There's a running joke on this other forum that someone posts a picture of a Brazilian sports model whenever he talks about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different. The models are already showing improvement so I'm in agreement. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 But some people here really prefer snowstorms as opposed to dry cold. We can get snowstorms whether it's on the periphery or heart of winter.Historically, most of our snow comes after a dry shot of cold air, and we get an overrunning event happening as we warm up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'll make a small wager that after the 10-14 day period things will look markedly different.I bet it gets darker considerably earlier at that point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I bet it gets darker considerably earlier at that point.It had better! Slightly higher odds on your wager than mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 You must be new to Bastardi, he uses the Brazilian every year. There's a running joke on this other forum that someone posts a picture of a Brazilian sports model whenever he talks about it. I'll bet he wouldn't if it showed a NE torch. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Time Change and Model Times reminderIn case you forgot, Sunday morning at 2 AM Daylight Savings Time ends and Standard Time begins. Turn your clock back 1 hour. Also, for weather geeks this means Computer Model runs come in 1 hour sooner! Yep! No more waiting until midnight for those exciting EURO runs to finish! I'll post the times below. **When Model Runs initialize/begin**6z NAM: Now 12:45 AM, Sunday 12z NAM: Now 6:45 AM, Sunday 18z NAM: Now 12:45 PM, Sunday 00z NAM: Now 6:45 PM, Sunday 6z GFS: Now 2:30 AM, Sunday 12z GFS: Now 8:30 AM, Sunday 18z GFS: Now 2:30 PM, Sunday 00z GFS: Now 8:30 PM, Sunday 12z ECMWF: Now 10:45 AM, Sunday 00z ECMWF: Now 10:45 PM, Sunday 12z CMC/GEM: Now 9:30 AM, Sunday 00z CMC/GEM: Now 9:30 PM, Sunday 6z GFS Ensembles: Now 5:00 AM, Sunday 12z GFS Ensembles: Now 11:00 AM, Sunday 18z GFS Ensembles: Now 5:00 PM, Sunday 00z GFS Ensembles: Now 11:00 PM, Sunday Reminder! 12 hours 3 minutes until we turn back the clocks at 2 AM! (Or before you go to bed) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Yeah I think this is the most likely scenario...pretty warm Nov across most of interior North America. If we can get a ridge to pop in the NE Pacific perhaps a weak cold shot late month for parts of the west, but the odds don't seem too high for that to occur at this point. Also looks like most local resorts probably won't open until at least Thanksgiving, potentially later. Yeah I think so too. I'm thinking January will be the month now that the lower 48 including the PNW gets a significant Arctic intrusion. If timing speeds up a bit then possibly as early as mid to late December. IMHO January has the potentially to be one of the coldest and snowiest ever in decades across the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 18z GFS in 12 minutes ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Reminder! 12 hours 3 minutes until we turn back the clocks at 2 AM! (Or before you go to bed) Very important since now we don't have to wait until midnight for the EURO to finish running! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Very important since now we don't have to wait until midnight for the EURO to finish running!Exactly. It's the most wonderful time of the yearrrrrrr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Sure wish the radar was working. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 I'm at 1.8 inches of rain and counting. Wouldn't be surprised to reach 2.5 inches by 5PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Hate this rain. Need a break from it. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Not only is it raining, it's really raining!! And dark! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Not only is it raining, it's really raining!! And dark! Winter is coming! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Winter is coming!Sure hoping tomorrow will be dry enough to at least pick up some leaves! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Winter is coming!About time. Frankly I just want to see Arctic air enter the country somewhere..I don't care if I blowtorch. Anything but this horrific coast to coast Pacific hose job. I definitely like what I'm seeing out of the tropics and stratosphere, FWIW. We're finally losing the stagnant forcing that's been sitting at 120E (which has been responsible for the NPAC Low/+PNA given antecedent broad Hadley Cell states in both the NPAC and NATL, contrary to what you'd think), as the intraseasonal forcings (MJO et al) take over. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The one thing that's bothering me, however, is the continued propensity for intense, super-expanded Hadley Cells even as the MJO consolidates convective integral equatorward. Obviously, a +QBO/Niña broadens the Hadley Cells, but should also reduce their intensity. We have yet to observe a renormalization of the typical size/intensity ratio, let alone a normal Walker/Hadley intensity ratio. Hard to imagine this regime can continue much longer before the rubber band snaps. Eventually this becomes unsustainable, and several modeling/paleo studies suggest an abrupt snap back is possible to probable. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The answer is obvious. Big stuff early isn't nearly as impressive as big stuff in the heart of the winter. Recent history tells us if it hits hard early you can forget about January. If we ease into cooler weather and gradually work toward something big we get a lot of warning shot type events before the really big stuff. Early quickies are getting old. Obviously a huge exception like 1896, 1955, or 1985 would always be welcome. I hear what you're saying, but if Dec 2013 or Dec 2009 had produced widespread snowfall, obviously they would have been much more memorable events and not so "old". Neither event was especially quick, either. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 The newest edition of the 12z CFS still showing the possibility of a PNW Arctic Blast during the first week of December. Maybe we can have an early December 2013 repeat. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110512/708/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110512/720/850th_nb.na.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Pretty good downpour at BLI right now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 5, 2016 Report Share Posted November 5, 2016 Just looking at a winter like 1921-22 shows what potential this climate really has. 14 inches of snow in November (in spite of the month being quite warm overall), followed by a cold / snowy January, and extreme lows of 16 in December, 6 in January, and 13 in February! That's a winter that is hardly even talked about... Stats are for Landsburg. The event in November was just barely cold enough for snow many places, with a lot of places south of Seattle having highs in the 40s, while places to the north were much colder. Clearbrook had a high of just 23 on 11/21. The December cold snap was much longer and more impressive north of Seattle. Everett had 11 straight days with highs of 37 or colder, and Clearbrook was below 38 from the 16th to the end of the month. They also had a 16/9 day on 12/19. Not much snow most places, though. The January event definitely brought some impressive lows, even though highs weren't super cold. Kent: 0Everett: 9Clearbrook: 8Centralia: 3 There were two cold spells in February, though the second mainly just affected places near Fraser outflow. Clearbrook had 4 straight days in the 20s from 2/10 - 2/14. Overall, a winter definitely dominated by areas further north, tons of Fraser outflow. Clearbrook managed 19 days below freezing that winter, and scores more in the mid 30s. One of the most consistently cold DJF on record up there, along with 1948-49. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.