November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Dave]

35 now...Can we...Do...It...

Fog will form momentarily and cap the temp at 34.  Book it.

[crf450ish]

 

00z GFS has commenced. Here we gooooooooooooooooo!!!!

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

 

You should post links all time 

[Gradient Keeper]

You should post links all time 

I can definitely try to do so.

[crf450ish]

High of 38 today at my place. Was 27 at 6:30 this morning when I drove the kids to the bus stop. Froze my a** off today on the tractor spreading gravel down the driveway. Good times.... looking forward to hearing the crunch of snow under my feet in subzero temps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

East wind should start up at PDX soon. That'll keep the temp up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanksgiving looking wet. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanksgiving looking wet. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

Tons of mountain snow too.

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind should start up at PDX soon. That'll keep the temp up. 

Yeah. Already developing in Troutdale and northeast Gresham. Should be in my area(west Gresham) before 9 to 9:30 PM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DJ, what will Crown Point be gusting in the morning?

[crf450ish]

Thanksgiving looking wet. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

Man....my area is just south of the snow on the map. Maybe it verifies out to where I get some snow? Only time will tell. We'll be in Puyallup for T-day and I'll be glued to my phone watching the radar like a hawk. Good thing I've got all the loose ends tied up around our property and ready for this winter. 

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ, what will Crown Point be gusting in the morning?

What time? 69mph or higher

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What time? 69mph or higher

 

What time? 69mph or higher

 

Like 8-10am

[Gradient Keeper]

Like 8-10am

67-74mph, stronger at times on the steps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z is another step in the right direction...Big league.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

67-74mph, stronger at times on the steps

 

Nice. I'm going to have to head up there!

[crf450ish]

Man....my area is just south of the snow on the map. Maybe it verifies out to where I get some snow? Only time will tell. We'll be in Puyallup for T-day and I'll be glued to my phone watching the radar like a hawk. Good thing I've got all the loose ends tied up around our property and ready for this winter. 

Sorry everyone. I edited my post. Cut out the profanity. I guess I shouldn't be complaining seeing as how I am in a part of the state thats guaranteed to see significant snowfall almost every winter. I just want everyone on the west side to get slammed so I can live vicariously through you all in a nostalgic manner. I miss seeing a blanket of snow in the lowlands over there. Good times. 

[GobBluth]

00 gfs looks great but that ugly ridge towards the end...ugly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00 gfs looks great but that ugly ridge towards the end...ugly

Yeah, lots of cold air pouring into the Central US at the end. Thanksgiving weekend is ridiculously wet on this run too. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think I actually might get to freezing tonight. At 35 now

[snow_wizard]

00 gfs looks great but that ugly ridge towards the end...ugly

A see saw temperature pattern wouldn't surprise me in December. The big news right now is the shorter range looks older.

[Gradient Keeper]

Days 1-7 similar to previous runs. A bit chilly at times.

Days 8-16 much cooler with very low snow levels possible at times.

 

Feet upon feet of mountain snow. The ski resorts will be absolutely buried.

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble is certainly cooler. Pretty much never goes above the normal line after this weekend.

[snow_wizard]

Looking really good for a freeze tonight. I think my latest for my records was in 1988. I'll have to look that up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles continue to show slight improvement. 

[Deweydog]

The Euro is running!

[TT-SEA]

The Euro is running!

 

 

Go catch it!   Its our best model... we can't let it get away.  

[Bryant]

Go catch it! Its our best model... we can't let it get away.

Out of curiousity, what timeframe did the Euro show snow in my neck of the woods?

[Jesse]

PDX already down to 39. No east wind yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX already down to 39. No east wind yet.

East wind sure breezy here!

[TT-SEA]

Out of curiousity, what timeframe did the Euro show snow in my neck of the woods?

 

 

I need to go back and check... I was just looking at the total for 10 days for my ski crazy son.

 

I also need to check the 00Z run.

[Jesse]

East wind sure breezy here!

PDX seems pretty decoupled for now. Maybe it will hold off until morning there.

[TT-SEA]

Out of curiousity, what timeframe did the Euro show snow in my neck of the woods?

 

 

Really strange... it did not show up on the 6 hour loop but showed up in the total snow image on day 7 (Thanksgiving):

 

 

 

Its gone from the 00Z run.  

[Deweydog]

PDX already down to 39. No east wind yet.

Back up to 40.

 

That was a fun winter while it lasted...

[TT-SEA]

Back up to 40.

 

That was a fun winter while it lasted...

 

 

Temperature is absolutely sky rocketing upward here... much like the PDO and the NINO 3.4 region.      

 

It was down to 37 earlier and now is at 41.    And continuing to climb incredibly fast.   Might be 42 next hour!   

[Bryant]

Really strange... it did not show up on the 6 hour loop but showed up in the total snow image on day 7 (Thanksgiving):

 

Its gone from the 00Z run.  

 

Thanks for posting, was just curious what you saw. I really need to get a subscription to weatherbell

[Jesse]

Back up to 40.

 

That was a fun winter while it lasted...

I thought you were only making one weenie post today!

[Deweydog]

I thought you were only making one weenie post today!

Getting a head start for tomorrow!

[snow_wizard]

Down to 34 now. Could be a heavy frost if nothing messes up the cooling for the rest of the night.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z in 1 hour 52 minutes!

[stuffradio]

It's 37F right now. Torchy!