MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998.I lucked out in 1998 with nearly a foot of unpredicted snow going into the week of cold. I remember being super excited to try out my first brand new 4wd truck in the snow...was memorable that way!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998. The thing is...those aren't analogs to the coming pattern according to the CPC site. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The thing is...those aren't analogs to the coming pattern according to the CPC site.Thank God! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I lucked out in 1998 with nearly a foot of unpredicted snow going into the week of cold. I remember being super excited to try out my first brand new 4wd truck in the snow...was memorable that way!!I remember 1998 getting seemingly the most snow of my childhoodUntil 2004 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yeah, 2007 sucked balls. So did 1998.I got 2+ feet of snow in December 2007. So horrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I got 2+ feet of snow in December 2007. So horrible. Places in Whatcom County northward had a great winter 2007-08. The pattern wasn't quite amplified enough for areas south of Bellingham to do well though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Places in Whatcom County northward had a great winter 2007-08. The pattern wasn't quite amplified enough for areas south of Bellingham to do well though. SnowWiz correct me if I am wrong. But I remember quite a bit of cold rain that winter for the lowlands south of Whatcom. Just felt like we were on the cusp of something great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level. You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfs 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I am on the edge of my seat in anticipation for the 0z's Looking like it is going to get very wet here tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I am on the edge of my seat in anticipation for the 0z'sLooking like it is going to get very wet here tonight.Don't fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 A bit late to the party....... Hoping for a good 0z run and see timing moved ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level. You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfs That is cool. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 A bit late to the party....... Hoping for a good 0z run and see timing moved ahead.Rob is back. Play by play please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 5 - 500mb http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Here is an interesting graphic I just thought I'd share showing the freezing level. You can see the dramatic drop off in the western Pacific....https://www.ventusky.com/?p=45.6;45.7;3&l=freezing&t=20161126/03&m=gfsAwesome site. Thanks! I bookmarked it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 00z sucks so far. So it will probably be really good at the end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Biggest concern I have moving forward is how exactly we are going to differentiate warning shots from main events and aftershocks. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Everything is further west on 0z. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Everything is further west on 0z. Early on looks more similar to the GEM and EURO. Weren't people complaining the 18z was a bit to far east? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Everything is further west on 0z.At least it's not all farther east!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Blocking ridge is also much weaker. This run is not looking very good. In the Euro we trust! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW. Well, that would be the typical outcome. And honestly not a surprise at all. These things moderate or completely fail about 90% of the time. At least we have a lot of winter ahead. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 7 - 500mb. I don't like the look of this Aleutian ridge. Weaker, less amplitude, and further south than previous runs. We'll have to see how days 8-10 end up. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112600/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yikes not good Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's the GFS...when will we learn that the model to be trusted is the EURO? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Winter cancel? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Polar vortex is dominating on the 00z GFS. That thing is vertically stacked and fully coupled through the stratopause by 216hrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm having her take back the long johns. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks nothing like the GEM/ECMWF, Ensembles, or Composite analogs.... Outlier. We shall bow to King EURO in 1 hour 8 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Winter cancel!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Outlier? Could be. Earlier ones also were as well, but for the good. So maybe this one is too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I just want a freaking frost. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Crap. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Crap. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Winters over! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 We're f*cked. Only a month and change to go before spring starts. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Winters over! Nah, the early December stuff was always a tease IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Crap. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.pngWho's this Hannah E. Attard??? Let's take her out back and beat the daylights out of her!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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