Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 From a 500mb (anomaly) perspective, they technically do phase and quite coherently at that. The MSLPs/raw heights can be deceptive. That entire N/NEPAC domain features higher than average pressures/heights on all the modeling. It's just a large, poleward propagating anticyclonic wavebreaking event.So they could merge and setup the block up more favorably for us the next 2-4 runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Nice to see the NWS mentioning snow (not even a mix) so far out. Pretty cold forecast for 5+ days out. Seattle zone forecast: SUNDAY NIGHThttp://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gifMOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.MONDAYhttp://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gifCLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.MONDAY NIGHThttp://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gifMOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS NEAR 30.TUESDAYhttp://images.wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/weaicons/snow.gifPARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 4 hours 17 minutes00z GEM in 5 hours 17 minutes00z ECMWF in 6 hours 35 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Not Sat-Sun. If anything Sun-Mon (marginal at this point), snow showers around Monday, then overrunning potential Thursday.Thanks love to read models and here on the message board you guys are awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 18z GEFS 850mb/surface temp anomaly bit colder than previous runs for sure. It appears that through day 7-8 the drunk Uncle was not an outlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 500mb temp anomaly beyond day 10 shows stronger ridge over western Alaska and colder trough over us than all previous runs. Hmmmmm 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I hate it when I can't click ' Like ' lol..... anyone else? I'm too positive i guess. I'll try to be negative a bit more often. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 4 hours 17 minutes00z GEM in 5 hours 17 minutes00z ECMWF in 6 hours 35 minutes I'll be playing floor hockey. Can you just text me updates? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday. You're going to get dumped on. Enough to make some snow titties 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 You're going to get dumped on. Enough to make some snow titties COULD be my biggest snow event since February 2014. The Dec. 22-24th event last winter was decent. I think I got around 6" for a 3 day total. This one kind of reminds me a little of that one. Though at this point I think this one may be a little colder. If I recall correctly that one was really borderline even for my location. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 18z Ensembles 850mb. Bit more improvement Portland, Seattle Hmmm, as moisture ramps up PDX 850mb doesn't get above 0c, then dips again....Stays at -2c with some colder members.... Intriguing. I wonder if we'll have east winds or not. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The ensembles are relatively unchanged. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 COULD be my biggest snow event since February 2014. The Dec. 22-24th event last winter was decent. I think I got around 6" for a 3 day total. This one kind of reminds me a little of that one. Though at this point I think this one may be a little colder. If I recall correctly that one was really borderline even for my location. By Christmas time this place had a depth of 18". The bigger days were 12/13 when 7.50" fell and 12/17 when 6.00" fell. Just those 2 days made up about 40% of the monthly total. But there were many other snowfall days between 2" to 4.5". The stations in town had a lot more melting in between but instead here it kept piling up thanks to the additional few hundred feet and slightly cooler temps. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The CFS this afternoon looks a lot like the 18z GFS. Keeps it cool until about the 20th than flat ridging for two weeks. A modified arctic intrusion in mid-January, ridging late January with an icebox east coast and then cold onshore flow the 2nd week of Feb. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too! LOL, this made my day. I forgot how epic this was.This place is a great little platform for all of us. I can't stop laughing as I am typing this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 18z shows 1.01" of precip falling at my location when temps should be cold enough for snow. At face value I would say this run is good for 5-9" of snow at my location From about 10am Sunday through 8pm Monday.What a shame, negative Nancy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I really think it's like I have been saying. The ridge that becomes the Aleutian/GOA block is just now over Japan as seen in the chart below. Models obviously still do not have a handle on upper level pattern recognition. Seeing different solutions with today's 12z GEM, GFS, and ECMWF tells us this. I don't think there will be solid model agreement until Wednesday 00z and until then I feel models could turn colder/blockier, or remain with a solution similar to what we're seeing now. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112918/gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_2.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 LOL, this made my day. I forgot how epic this was.This place is a great little platform for all of us. I can't stop laughing as I am typing this.The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 This run looks slightly more progressive than the 12z, but no huge changes within the believable range. Decent pattern regardless. Maybe a couple days below normal for someone? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old.Yes, I know, Tim's part is hilarious as well. LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewr Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I think the role of Hitler goes to Snow_wizard (Jim). That video was awesome coming from a long time lurker dating back to the Old Farmer's Almanac days. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Maybe a couple days below normal for someone? I'm not sure what you're getting at here. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Yes, I know, Tim's part is hilarious as well. LOL...Haha, Tim and those SSTs! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Celebrate sunshine and ridging in this land of constant troughs 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The "Rob" mentioned in the video is me. Lol Yeah I've watched it 8 times today and it never gets old. Its is funny. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I'm not sure what you're getting at here. What you said a few days ago. This upcoming pattern would result in maybe a couple below normal days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I've never felt so conflicted about a chance of snow. I've enjoyed spending hours tracking every minute detail over the last several days but we have a field trip with 3 classes to the Pacific Science Center on Monday. I still want it to snow, but D**n, cancelling the trip and possibly not getting our money back would really suck. This might just be the kick in the pants the storm needs to over perform guys. You're welcome. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I've never felt so conflicted about a chance of snow. I've enjoyed spending hours tracking every minute detail over the last several days but we have a field trip with 3 classes to the Pacific Science Center on Monday. I still want it to snow, but D**n, cancelling the trip and possibly not getting our money back would really suck. This might just be the kick in the pants the storm needs to over perform guys. You're welcome.You and your class must make a sacrifice for the snow gods. Sorry... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The 12z WRF and high res mesoscale ECMWF both indicate decent snowfall next week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The CFS has been going pretty nuts lately. A lot of runs showing Dec, Jan, and Feb all being cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 You and your class must make a sacrifice for the snow gods. Sorry...That class must be canceled Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 The 12z WRF and high res mesoscale ECMWF both indicate decent snowfall next week.Post the wxbell maps on tonight's run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Get those studs on now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardDrinkinLincoln Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Winter tires went on this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Winter tires went on this afternoon. On the 14th we did that, and the next day flakes were falling. lol It's almost like putting them on caused Winter to arrive... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 What you said a few days ago. This upcoming pattern would result in maybe a couple below normal days.Huh? Where did I say this? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Huh? Where did I say this?I thought you have been more optimistic about our chances lately as opposed to past winters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I thought you have been more optimistic about our chances lately as opposed to past wintersYeah, I became much more optimistic in this summer when the QBO failed to cycle negative. The Niña/+QBO combo rarely fails to deliver in the PNW. The Niña/-QBO combo, on the other hand, fails more often than not, except during deep solar minimums. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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