November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Warning shots straight to the chest and head!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CFS and 18z GFS certainly look similar in the clown range.

 

 

18z long range alert

Ironically 18z looks a lot like the 12z CFS. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......

[Jesse]

Seeing as though they do about 27 updates per hour that's not very good.

Not anymore!

[luvssnow_spokane]

glorious eye candy... in lala land

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

So sunday to monday and wendsay stI'll happening?

[Bryant]

18z does keep precip around Western WA for a little longer than previous runs. Shows snow accumulation into Tuesday morning. 12z stopped precip/snow by Monday night.

Shhhh, we aren't supposed to talk about snow!

[stuffradio]

I don't mind the 18Z scenario. Really cold for our standards a couple days, warms up with an overrunning event, and goes back into the deep freeze.

[Sometimesdylan]

18z keeps us in the freezer with pretty much no snow. Cold and dry with northerly outflow through the inside passage.

[Jesse]

Glad to see PDX dodged yucky 40s again to close out the month!

[stuffradio]

I'm ending November with 15.56 inches of rain.

[James Jones]

Glad to see PDX dodged yucky 40s again to close out the month!

We need November to torch as hard as possible to improve our chances for winter. Warm anomalies only become a bad thing starting 7 hours from now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow..... Anyone see the ECMWF Weeklies Monday? What IbrChris just posted in my FB group was insane.

 

Chris Callais

2 hrs

 

I should mention Monday's Euro Weeklies were interesting. A few interesting observations from the ensemble mean for PDX:

 

* All members show some sort of snow event around Dec 13-14. Generally 5-15" shown but with the coarse resolution there's no way to pinpoint where these forecasts are for, might be Sandy, might be downtown PDX. Something to watch though.

 

* Warmer (near normal) temps from about Dec 15-Dec 28.

 

* Markedly colder temps from about Dec 28-Jan 12...the mean temp is about 8-10 F below normal toward the first-second week of Jan suggesting one or more Arctic episodes. This is pretty remarkable considering it's a clear signal in the mean. Looking at the 500 mb pattern it looks *very* good for an Arctic blast during weeks 5-6. Ridge near 150-170 W persists almost the entire period on the ensemble mean.

 

 

This sound potentially historic. To see ALL 50 members showing that isn't just remarkable, it's flat out unheard of. I will say GFS Ensembles continue to show the mean positive anomaly right where we want it between 155 W - 165 W suggestive that the Gulf of Alaska/high latitudes will remain very blocky beyond day 8.

[Heavy Snow]

 

Wow..... Anyone see the ECMWF Weeklies Monday? What IbrChris just posted in my FB group was insane.

 

Chris Callais

2 hrs

 

I should mention Monday's Euro Weeklies were interesting. A few interesting observations from the ensemble mean for PDX:

 

* All members show some sort of snow event around Dec 13-14. Generally 5-15" shown but with the coarse resolution there's no way to pinpoint where these forecasts are for, might be Sandy, might be downtown PDX. Something to watch though.

 

* Warmer (near normal) temps from about Dec 15-Dec 28.

 

* Markedly colder temps from about Dec 28-Jan 12...the mean temp is about 8-10 F below normal toward the first-second week of Jan suggesting one or more Arctic episodes. This is pretty remarkable considering it's a clear signal in the mean. Looking at the 500 mb pattern it looks *very* good for an Arctic blast during weeks 5-6. Ridge near 150-170 W persists almost the entire period on the ensemble mean.

 

 

This sound potentially historic. To see ALL 50 members showing that isn't just remarkable, it's flat out unheard of. I will say GFS Ensembles continue to show the mean positive anomaly right where we want it between 155 W - 165 W suggestive that the Gulf of Alaska/high latitudes will remain very blocky beyond day 8.

 

 

That is amazing news. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Score!

[seattleweatherguy]

Hope wa gets in on those two

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see last night's crisis is over.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro ensembles were also greatly improved for days 8-10.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS ensemble mean shows 850s dropping to -10 for Seattle. That's pretty decent to say the least.

 

Things continue to look primed for a major event a bit down the road. It would appear past history can tell us something after all.

[Heavy Snow]

12z CFS and 18z GFS certainly look similar in the clown range.

 

Yup.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016113012/408/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113018/384/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is going absolutely ape with most of December and early January. The last 5 runs at least have all shown MAJOR cold later in the month. The signal is outstanding. I knew this mega torch November was a good sign.

[snow_wizard]

Yup.

 

That CFS map is like January 1950 to a T. Instead of a SE ridge the warm anoms are shoved up into the NE.

[Phil]

That's a beautiful-looking block in the clown range there. Right over Alaska upon maturity..doesn't get more perfect than that.

 

Meanwhile, it was 70 degrees and thundering here today. Ugh.

[Deweydog]

Goodbye November, you wh*re!

 

[Phil]

It should be noted that the parallel weeklies aren't quite as nice looking, though they're still bullish on the -EPO/-NAO through week six.

[MossMan]

It should be noted that the parallel weeklies aren't quite as nice looking, though they're still bullish on the -EPO/-NAO through week six.

Thanks Phil!!

[Weather101]

Could be a great month!!

[Weather101]

[Bryant]

[Phil]

Thanks Phil!!

Yeah, I'm no fun. Lol.

[MossMan]

Yeah, I'm no fun. Lol.

Haha that's ok! I guess it can't always be fun and games!

[Brennan]

[IbrChris]

Yup.

 

These belong on the Model Contest page...that's about as "classic" a strong arctic blast as they come.

 

If I was gonna be a bit more nit-picky I'd just want to bump the center of that upper low a tad farther south so we are on the northern side of the center with better N-NE flow aloft.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The blast needs to avoid the Dec 15-21st timeframe...

[ShawniganLake]

The blast needs to avoid the Dec 15-21st timeframe...

I need it to avoid the 12th-21st.

[snow_wizard]

I need it to avoid the 12th-21st.

 

Good chance it will happen in that time frame.

[Deweydog]

What if this turns out to be a February 1989/August 1981/October 12, 1962 combo?

[IbrChris]

There have been posts lamenting the lack of snow on the Euro.

 

In my opinion, if the real cold doesn't skim us to the east, a lot of people are going to see some snow. It's silly to get upset about a snow map a week away. Focus on the pattern locking in before throwing in the towel.

Yes it's just model riding until it gets inside about 5 days when we can start having an idea of track, timing and strength of any events. That said model riding is the favorite Wx weenie pastime.

[IbrChris]

What if this turns out to be a February 1989/August 1981/October 12, 1962 combo?

So potentially a high of 107 one day and a high of 14 with wind gusts above 100 mph the next? Bring it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good chance it will happen in that time frame.

 

January off the table?

[Timmy Supercell]

November 2016 was only the 7th warmest November in Klamath Falls. There are actually quite a few anomalously warm Novembers out there in this area, probably more than the Portland area. 

 

The mean was 41.4 (+5.9). Avg high turned out to be 52.3 (+6.3). Avg low 30.4 (+5.3).

This month managed to smash normal values in all categories, but I really must have underestimated how warm November can be in Klamath Falls. In 1995 there was a mean of 43.5 (+8.0) and in 1949 there was an unbelievable avg high of 57.0 (+11.0!).

 

However this month does probably hold a gold medal for a record warmest start to November in the first 15 days, where I had an avg high of 61.5 (+12.0) and running mean of 47.4 (+9.3). 

 

Only 1.2" inches of snow for the whole month, compared to a normal 4.0". But this has little relevance to November being a warm anomaly; the 2nd half of the month actually ran much closer to normal, especially for avg high category only being +0.7.

 

Edit: avg high in 1949 was actually 57.0. I fixed that.