Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tony]

That hr 372 looks crushing

Doesn't look like much to me but then again its 15 days away so...

[Tony]

Anything that falls 15 days from now is just going to melt away in a hurry so why even bother getting a storm if it's going to be gone in a couple days anyway.

[james1976]

Another EC crush job?

[Niko]

Big warm-up by end of next week. My temps reach the low 50s for highs with sunny skies. A lot on here should experience some very mild conditions. No snow in sight at all.

[bud2380]

Euro shows a high of 60 in Iowa city next Saturday and 64 the following Monday. That sounds amazing, bring it on.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro shows a high of 60 in Iowa city next Saturday and 64 the following Monday. That sounds amazing, bring it on.

It sounds (and feels was 58F here yday) amazing-- if it wasn't the middle/later half of FEB. It's not gonna last just like for the most-- the snow that fell in early DEC.  Both the GFS and Euro control have been showing a significant system later that week. March in both  the CFS weeklies and monthlies is trending way cold. Another wasted-- back weighted - winter?

[Grizzcoat]

From PP on AccuWx--

 

The latest stratospheric warming event was the strongest we have seen this winter season. Let us see if there will be impacts from the warming event. We do see stratospheric warming working its way down into the troposphere leading to upper height rises in northern latitudes. The result may not be extreme cold, but shifting of storm tracks, a more southern track for late February into early March.The Japanese model updated on Wednesday and showed in early March a widespread area of lower-than-normal temperatures from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast. It may be a split pattern for March and more of a washout. However in any case, it is the southern track of storms that will hold back any real intense warmups in the north early on in March.

 

The European in early March looks very similar to the Japanese ideas of a southern storm track and really not sustained warmups in the northern latitudes.

European week one March:

 

 

European week two March:

 

[gosaints]

Should have some.better chances early march but no sign.of the nao slowing things down after the brief dip. Until march enjoy the torch

[gosaints]

I remeber when we had back to back cold winters it was talked about as a mini ice age. Does the last 2 get the term mini inferno?

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[jaster220]

Should have some.better chances early march but no sign.of the nao slowing things down after the brief dip. Until march enjoy the torch

And watching everybody around us get nailed..

[jaster220]

It sounds (and feels was 58F here yday) amazing-- if it wasn't the middle/later half of FEB. It's not gonna last just like for the most-- the snow that fell in early DEC.  Both the GFS and Euro control have been showing a significant system later that week. March in both  the CFS weeklies and monthlies is trending way cold. Another wasted-- back weighted - winter?

Another d15 drooler map. Yay

[Niko]

Hopefully I can get 1 or 2 big snowstorms in early March and get my 50"+ for the whole winter season. That should do it for me. Bring Spring after that.

[gosaints]

Jb is such a weenie he cant even admit his outlook was whack this winter

[Money]

Only 12 days away:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021212/288/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021212/288/prateptype_cat.conus.png

[Niko]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

[james1976]

Haha it got quiet in here

[gosaints]

Haha it got quiet in here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[gosaints]

Haha it got quiet in here

We are lucky we dont have to worry about futility records

[james1976]

60s and record highs this weekend imby

[gosaints]

http://wgntv.com/2017/02/02/chicagos-snow-drought-this-winter-is-nearly-unprecedented/

[jaster220]

Only 12 days away:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021212/288/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021212/288/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

Only 8 more days of teases until it pulls a vanishing act. Look familiar?

 

 

[gosaints]

Gfs drops below normal at 372

[jaster220]

Gfs drops below normal at 372

 

Says Punxsutawney Joe??

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I'd love to see what the euro is showing for max surface temp on Monday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017021312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png

[Snowlover76]

Joe Bastardi is a joke. I feel bad for the folks who pay money to hear what that nitwit has to say about anything.

[Hawkeye]

Do we really need to fill another forum with this ?  There must be somewhere else all the cool kids can go to tell each other how much JB sucks.  

[james1976]

Looks like a lot of record highs comin

[gosaints]

Do we really need to fill another forum with this s**t?  There must be somewhere else all the cool kids can go to tell each other how much JB sucks.  

Guess it could go in other topics thread.  Its crickets in here anyways.

 

Guy is making a living doing what he does and cant admit when he is wrong

[james1976]

As much as id like to track a storm im gonna enjoy the 60s this weekend.

[St Paul Storm]

No storms, not even any precip at all in the next 7 days. Will be pushing 60s by this weekend if we mix sufficiently. Bring it. I'd rather have that than tracking Dakota Specials or EC bombs.

[Hawkeye]

The 60s will feel great.  I may even get my bicycle out.  However, I don't necessarily want an extended period of spring warmth that causes the daffodils to shoot up.  It's too early for that.  Heck, a few daffodil clumps already popped above the surface recently with just 50 degrees and sun.  It doesn't take much to get them going.

[gimmesnow]

This big heat wave is going to cut 2 weeks out of midwestern snow resort's season. Normally we make it into the second week of March. It's lousy, but we make it there. Now the people at my hill are saying they're going to be lucky to make it to the 1st of March. I've never had a snowboarding season this short. It's always been my fall back winter activity for when we don't get snow, and even that wasn't great this year.

[St Paul Storm]

The warmest low temp on record in February at MSP is 44°. The forecasted low next Monday morning is 50°. Pretty incredible.

[gosaints]

Looks like CFS predicted the next 2 weeks or so very well.  Will be interesting how it does for weeks 3 and 4 currently.  

[Andrew NE]

I would be completely shocked if we were to see anymore snow in the plains this season. Currently sitting at 8.8" for the season. The upside is next year couldn't be any worse, could it....

[Snowlover76]

I would be completely shocked if we were to see anymore snow in the plains this season. Currently sitting at 8.8" for the season. The upside is next year couldn't be any worse, could it....

We said that last winter

[OKwx2k4]

We said that last winter

Yup. I know I did. Lol. This winter sucks too!!

[gosaints]

This would be fin for the dakotas

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017021500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

[Andrew NE]

We said that last winter

 

Call it what you want, last year we reached seasonal average snowfall here. That's 3 times the amount we have had this year!