December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

I rest my case.

 

I suppose you have a point. 3 days is an eternity this winter. 

[Winterdog]

Time to drop my clown range joke.  I received 3 likes for it yesterday.

[westcoastexpat]

At 3" now... HRRR has finally given in and is expecting another 4" tonight. It's been showing zero snow every run. I really don't think I'm going to see a transition soon.

[BLI snowman]

Or we could see things go more the 1948-49, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1978-79, 1992-93 route. It's been awhile, but a consistently cold, blocky winter all the way into February is due.

 

2008-09 was the closest in recent years, but January wasn't cold.

 

OLM may see a lot of snow/cold next month, but I doubt anyone else will.

[Front Ranger]

OLM may see a lot of snow/cold next month, but I doubt anyone else will.

 

 

I get where you're coming from. Cold outbreaks in December in recent years have led to lackluster Januaries: 2013, 2009, 2008. Doesn't mean things will go that way this year, though (assuming a real Arctic outbreak materializes this month).

 

I think there's a 50/50 chance the general blocking regime keeps reappearing throughout the winter. 1984-85 was another winter like that.

[MossMan]

Lately yes!

Good point.

[mountainman]

Wow it's great fro your neighbours up north here.  All snow and |DUMPING all day.  Some areas not much...other areas up to 10" like on SE island.  

[luminen]

At 3" now... HRRR has finally given in and is expecting another 4" tonight. It's been showing zero snow every run. I really don't think I'm going to see a transition soon.

 

Rain/snow mix here. :/

[Front Ranger]

CZ seems to be forming around Arlington now, just as the NAM predicted.

[HighlandExperience]

Rain/snow mix here. :/

 

Glad someone up north is suffering. 

[BLI snowman]

At 3" now... HRRR has finally given in and is expecting another 4" tonight. It's been showing zero snow every run. I really don't think I'm going to see a transition soon.

 

Whatcom County should do well tonight. I doubt there's any widespread switch to south wind and it looks like at least .20" of precip on its way. 

[BLI snowman]

 

I get where you're coming from. Cold outbreaks in December in recent years have led to lackluster Januaries: 2013, 2009, 2008. Doesn't mean things will go that way this year, though (assuming a real Arctic outbreak materializes this month).

 

I think there's a 50/50 chance the general blocking regime keeps reappearing throughout the winter. 1984-85 was another winter like that.

 

We're still crazy overdue for something cold in the January 20-31 timeframe, feels like there could be a good pattern somewhere in there. 2009 was the last year with any lowland snow in that stretch. 

[Deweydog]

 

I get where you're coming from. Cold outbreaks in December in recent years have led to lackluster Januaries: 2013, 2009, 2008. Doesn't mean things will go that way this year, though (assuming a real Arctic outbreak materializes this month).

 

I think there's a 50/50 chance the general blocking regime keeps reappearing throughout the winter. 1984-85 was another winter like that.

I could see there being some amplified +PNA stuff in January.

[MossMan]

Snowing again!

[Front Ranger]

I could see there being some amplified +PNA stuff in January.

 

Sure, that's probably the other side of the 50/50. Could be both a period of +PNA and some -PNA/cold. Several of the winters I mentioned had that. 

 

Bottom line is I think a transition to long-lasting +EPO blowtorch a la Jan 2006 is unlikely. The general theme of blockiness should continue, and that's usually a good thing.

[luminen]

Glad someone up north is suffering. 

 

It's super light though which is why it's not snow and I'm only at 140' asl. More precip on the way though. 

[Phil]

Studies have shown that cold greatly increases our chances of seeing snow as well.

Bulls**t.

[BLI snowman]

Down to 32.1 here. Should be interesting to see if any widespread new icing problems occur in the Portland metro in the next couple hours with that heavy precip coming in.

[Phil]

Or we could see things go more the 1948-49, 1961-62, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1978-79, 1984-85, 1992-93 route. It's been awhile, but a consistently cold, blocky winter all the way into February is due.

 

2008-09 was the closest in recent years, but January wasn't cold.

I think there'll be a ridgy period in January. It doesn't necessarily have to last the entire month, though..maybe 2-3 weeks?

[MossMan]

Snow now verging on moderate territory. 32.9F

[Phil]

 

I get where you're coming from. Cold outbreaks in December in recent years have led to lackluster Januaries: 2013, 2009, 2008. Doesn't mean things will go that way this year, though (assuming a real Arctic outbreak materializes this month).

 

I think there's a 50/50 chance the general blocking regime keeps reappearing throughout the winter. 1984-85 was another winter like that.

Ugh, anything but 1984-85. That was just too cold (and almost snowless) around these parts.

[Phil]

Sure, that's probably the other side of the 50/50. Could be both a period of +PNA and some -PNA/cold. Several of the winters I mentioned had that.

 

Bottom line is I think a transition to long-lasting +EPO blowtorch a la Jan 2006 is unlikely. The general theme of blockiness should continue, and that's usually a good thing.

Yeah, +EPO hose jobs aren't common under the -ENSO/+QBO combo. Usually there's a lot more NPAC blocking.

[Heavy Snow]

Does the NAVGEM have much credibility?

 

I haven't taken a look too see how it's verification scores are. I do know it replaced the NOGAPS model and upgraded from there. It's run by the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. I always look at it because it runs 4 times a day out to 180 hours. I only posted it because it agreed with a similar solution to the EURO. I also look for trends and in it's last 4 runs it's sending the system more North each time.

[westcoastexpat]

I haven't even looked out past Day 2. Too busy nowcasting 

 

I figure we're still on track for a very cold December.

[MossMan]

Really dumping snow now! What a pleasant surprise!

[crf450ish]

I haven't even looked out past Day 2. Too busy nowcasting 

 

I figure we're still on track for a very cold December.

You got that right....

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-118.31197529578233&lat=47.98600292243347#.WDyBtHeZOHo

[Bryant]

Really dumping snow now! What a pleasant surprise!

You have an elevation?

[westcoastexpat]

The blob of snow expanding over southern Vancouver Island is hauling its a** toward me and looks juicy as ****.

 

I might pee a little in anticipation.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looking at KMAX radar, have to wonder if it's just going to rain all night, non stop!

[westcoastexpat]

You have an elevation?

High as a kite.

[MossMan]

You have an elevation?

About 300FT

[catnip]

The blob of snow expanding over southern Vancouver Island is hauling its a** toward me and looks juicy as ****.

 

I might pee a little in anticipation.

You are in Blaine now?

[TT-SEA]

Road is plowed...

 

[westcoastexpat]

You are in Blaine now?

 

Back and forth between Blaine and Newton, BC. In Newton right now though!

[Sometimesdylan]

21 outside downtown Juneau, 18 at the airport, and 6 near my house. 

Our ski area opened up today. Good skiing with all the light snow. Probably another day or two of good skiing before the snow gets tracked out. 

 

Hot toddy weather 

[Timmy Supercell]

There's almost none of the snow from yesterday on the ground now. Maybe 0.25" at most on grass. Nothing on roads except for the piles.

[Weather101]

KING NAM

[Timmy Supercell]

KING NAM

 

God Emperor EURO

[SilverFallsAndrew]

God Emperor EURO

 

How much rain have you had today?

[MossMan]

God Emperor EURO

Special Needs GFS?