December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just in case anyone is getting carried away I thought it would be prudent to reiterate that a note by note January 1950 repeat is NOT very likely even though I am predicting one.

I guess I'd be okay with 1957

[Deweydog]

I bet Burns, Baker, or Joseph pull off a -30 next week.

Road trip!

[jakeinthevalley]

I bet Burns, Baker, or Joseph pull off a -30 next week.

If the wind stays down, watch out for Seneca. Perfect conditions would get them there. They do tend to be susceptible to mixing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe even Redmond

What do you think your snow cover situation will be?

[Dave]

When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland?  When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was.  That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks.

[snow drift]

I guess I'd be okay with 1957

1957 is mighty pretty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland? When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember which year it was. That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks.

1996

[Jesse]

I guess I'd be okay with 1957

I just also feel like I should point out that this is also unlikely if not highly probable.

[Prairiedog]

I think it was around '78  or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City.  The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks.  Water levels were low that winter so that helped.  Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life.  Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78

When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland?  When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was.  That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks.

[Perturbed Member]

Its a done deal, weather.com is predicting a total of 12+ inches of snow for PDX between the 6th and 11th with most of it falling on the 8th. More to come after that.

Book it.

[Timmy Supercell]

What are your record lows looking like?

 

Records for the whole first week of January.

 

01/01: -10 (2016)

01/02: -13 (1993)

01/03: -9 (1950)

01/04: -5 (1972)

01/05: -9 (1950)

01/06: -8 (1977)

01/07: -5 (1982)

[Timmy]

I think it was around '78  or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City.  The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks.  Water levels were low that winter so that helped.  Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life.  Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78

my uncle lived on a houseboat in scappoose then I believe it was 78' or thereabouts. He was in high school and walked on or accross the multnomah channel.

[Timmy]

1996

I felt like there was a time after that, that there was some weak ice floating down the river.

[BLI snowman]

I think it was around '78 or there abouts. I remember walking across the Clackamas R. at High Rocks in Oregon City. The Willamette and Columbia had ice chunks. Water levels were low that winter so that helped. Never saw the Clack that iced over in my life. Yea, '96 the Columbia had a little ice but not as much as that year around '78

Yep, 78-79 was the winter and was the last significant icing along many of our major rivers.

[Timmy]

Mark Nelsen not backing down. 28-12 tues and Wednesday

[Goducks09]

When was the last time the Columbia had an ice flow through Portland?  When I lived up there in the 90's I remember one, but I can't remember what year it was.  That could be a possibility again in a couple of weeks.

 

I remember that too!

[seattleweatherguy]

Mark Nelsen not backing down. 28-12 tues and Wednesday

 

 

If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow.

[Heavy Snow]

I just got off work here in Washington County. Thick fog right now and feels very chilly. Looks like highs didn't make it out of the 30s over here.

[The Swamp]

No offense to all these cold stats but it means squat to me. I don't care if it's -26F if I don't have snow.

 

Give me 35F and 7" please.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible model runs today! The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS both have around 3 inches of snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. The stuff as we get toward the 8 to 12 day period looks potentially historic.

 

I have to say the block being depicted is unlike anything I've seen since I've been looking at models. It eventually gets to where there is a literal river of cold air pouring off the top of the globe right into the NW. Very exciting.

 

I have to say the NWS forecast is a bit timid looking for this weekend. Almost certainly keeps the mention of rain in the forecast too long and is almost certainly too warm for Sunday. Plenty of time to sort that out though.

 

I'm betting anything by very early Sunday morning will be snow in the Seattle area and it might even be sooner than that.

[Prairiedog]

Yep, 78-79 was the winter and was the last significant icing along many of our major rivers.

I have lived in the area all my life and have fished the Clackamas R. for many years and never saw it freeze up down low like that year.  We walked across it safely for several days not far from The Harley Davidson Store on I-205.  It was pretty darn cold that winter but dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Records for the whole first week of January.

 

01/01: -10 (2016)

01/02: -13 (1993)

01/03: -9 (1950)

01/04: -5 (1972)

01/05: -9 (1950)

01/06: -8 (1977)

01/07: -5 (1982)

You ll threaten some of those if you go into this with some snow cover

[jaya]

Incredible model runs today! The 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS both have around 3 inches of snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. The stuff as we get toward the 8 to 12 day period looks potentially historic.

 

I have to say the block being depicted is unlike anything I've seen since I've been looking at models. It eventually gets to where there is a literal river of cold air pouring off the top of the globe right into the NW. Very exciting.

 

I have to say the NWS forecast is a bit timid looking for this weekend. Almost certainly keeps the mention of rain in the forecast too long and is almost certainly too warm for Sunday. Plenty of time to sort that out though.

 

I'm betting anything by very early Sunday morning will be snow in the Seattle area and it might even be sooner than that.

I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive.  More times than not, the timid survive.

[Timmy Supercell]

You ll threaten some of those if you go into this with some snow cover

 

Currently almost nothing on the ground. It's gonna be need to snow between now and the arctic air for that to tip the scales.

[ShawniganLake]

If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow.

If Seattle is below 28/12 on Tuesday without deep snowcover, I will smoke a pine cone. Those pdx numbers are gorge influenced.

[jaya]

What if this ends up colder and snowier than 1950? Consider how it will feel after almost 67 years of supremecy?

It would be a cool thing to see. I'm not sure our people here - or our infrastructure - would handle it very well.  But, Jan 1950 will be very hard to beat in anyone on this Forum's lifetime.  But, maybe we'll get lucky.

[Perturbed Member]

If its that cold there Seattle could be colder wow.

 

Seattle doesn't have the gorge. 

 

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[snow_wizard]

I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive.  More times than not, the timid survive.

I totally understand. It's much easier to throw a more aggressive forecast out there on a forum like this. My experience though is the ones that actually work out usually deliver the cold faster than just about anyone expects. The probability of this working out is way above average IMO.

[snow_wizard]

Seattle doesn't have the gorge. 

 

 

We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland.

[jaya]

I think the upcoming pattern is going to have the best potential that we've seen in many years to rival epic years of the past

 

Oh cool, you joined? No problem. Welcome

Just looking at some statistics concerning temperature and sea-level pressure at Seattle based on the 12Z GFS run.  10 to 30 year return interval!  This has very good potential to beat 2008.

[snow_wizard]

Records for the whole first week of January.

 

01/01: -10 (2016)

01/02: -13 (1993)

01/03: -9 (1950)

01/04: -5 (1972)

01/05: -9 (1950)

01/06: -8 (1977)

01/07: -5 (1982)

I'm astonished the record for the 1st is from this year. Really quite unbelievable in fact.

[Perturbed Member]

We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland.

 

Not saying SEA can't get colder than PDX, but the Fraser outflow is much less direct than the Gorge is to PDX. The close proximity of the gorge and the fact that it is a sea level gap is key for us. 

[kokaneekidz]

I think that the timidity in the forecast will continue until it is 100 percent. Many of the forecasters there have been burned by going with the models, particularly since the models are typically too fast to bring cold air into Western Washington and they are usually too aggressive.  More times than not, the timid survive.

Yes, that is the gospel there. I agree 110% if they wait it out it might actually happen. Pre-announce and be made fun of with no snow to show for it. Easy does it

[jaya]

I totally understand. It's much easier to throw a more aggressive forecast out there on a forum like this. My experience though is the ones that actually work out usually deliver the cold faster than just about anyone expects. The probability of this working out is way above average IMO.

Personally, I agree with you on this one.  I think this will be a very big event for the NW.  It is also starting to look like the AG industry in CA is going to suffer big time.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm astonished the record for the 1st is from this year. Really quite unbelievable in fact.

 

Fact is, early December has much much colder records than early January. On 12/31/2015 I had -6 and was only +3 warmer than that record in 1974.

[snow_wizard]

Just looking at some statistics concerning temperature and sea-level pressure at Seattle based on the 12Z GFS run.  10 to 30 year return interval!  This has very good potential to beat 2008.

We're finally going to score in January. Just that is very newsworthy after the past 35 years or so. We used to get an incredible January once or twice a decade. So much more potential than any other month especially in duration of cold.

[epiceast]

Don't think we'll be breaking any records for cold in Missoula, the best shot is the 3rd and 4th which are still a -19.

[ShawniganLake]

We get our cold from the Fraser Valley. Jan 1950 was colder in Seattle than Portland.

I don't think the Fraser valley is going to be ripping next week. Maybe 28/15 type stuff in places like Abbotsford. If the stuff out around day 10 verify, things will be a lot different.

[jaya]

Yes, that is the gospel there. I agree 110% if they wait it out it might actually happen. Pre-announce and be made fun of with no snow to show for it. Easy does it

Yeah, the kiss of death for any type of interesting event (cold, wind, heat, ...) is to give a briefing or put out a bold forecast well in advance.  Sort of like Murphy's Law!

[snow_wizard]

Not saying SEA can't get colder than PDX, but the Fraser outflow is much less direct than the Gorge is to PDX. The close proximity of the gorge and the fact that it is a sea level gap is key for us.

No doubt.