December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be sad when Brookings, OR gets more snow than Jim.

[Dave]

Looks like Brookings will score more than Eugene.

[ShawniganLake]

Low further west

Another 50-100 miles please. First run to show 1" here at least.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just got back from a week in North Vancouver and the BC Kootenay region. Both areas have done substantially better in the snow department than Victoria. It was pretty cool/scary driving back through Manning Park yesterday, we hit that area just a little after the heavy snow started and there was over 6" of unplowed snow sitting on the highway as we were coming down the hill. I figured it would change to rain at the bottom of the hill but Hope too was getting heavy wet snow and the roads were a mess. Can't complain about a heavy snowpack in our outflow source regions.

 

I'm a little skeptical of the snowfall output the models are showing for tomorrow night/Sunday. Some are showing almost nothing on Vancouver Island, but the dynamics setting up are the most impressive I've seen since February 2011. I have a hard time believing the east side of Vancouver Island will stay dry through the whole event with conditions favorable for strait-effect/enhanced snowfall. It doesn't take much to trigger additional little surface lows over the south part of the island with 500mb heights below 528dm and 850mb temperatures below -10C (low heights and very cold upper level air spilling over warm water = fun). In both February 2011 and November 2010 the models failed to pick up on major local snowfalls even 24 hours out, this could easily turn out similar. We finally have an event happening at the optimal time of year for cold enhancement and snowfall, pretty exciting stuff.

[Dave]

Gonna be sad when Brookings, OR gets more snow than Jim.

Just beat me to it.  I wonder when the last time Brookings had any measurable snow?

[chopper 918]

Cold air a little slower to move in...Or it just doesn't get quite as cold, we'll see...

Hmm...that would be odd for that to happen here in the great NW.

[Perturbed Member]

I dunno, but he did specifically say that he would never post anything about weather ever again. Lol.  Good to see he stepped back from the edge.

 

Absolutely no PNW weather geek should be on the ledge right now. Doesn't get any better than what we're seeing right now on the models. 

[Heavy Snow]

Here is what I'm thinking for PDX Metro in terms of snowfall with the Arctic Front.

 

• Everybody should at least see a dusting 
• West of I-205 will see a dusting to 1"
• West Hills/Extreme NW PDX Metro(Scappoose/Kelso)/East of I-205 will see 1"-2"
• Extreme SE PDX Metro(Sandy, Estacada) 2"-4" 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely a warmer run...I'm running toward the ledge!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very disappointing to see the last minute moderation, we've been waiting so long for this. It would be a shame to see it fade out at the last minute. Highs in the low-mid 30s just won't cut it. 

 

[FroYoBro]

Very disappointing to see the last minute moderation, we've been waiting so long for this. It would be a shame to see it fade out at the last minute. Highs in the low-mid 30s just won't cut it. 

 

You are SO much worse than Tim ever has been. 

 

Oh, you added a winkey face. Never mind. 

[GHweatherChris]

Got mine setup and uploading to wunderground last night!

Unfortunately I cannot upload mine right now, no desktop and laptop is not always at home. But might make an exception for the next week or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You are SO much worse than Tim ever has been. 

 

Oh, you added a winkey face. Never mind. 

 

I'm just messing. But this run is quite a bit milder. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks much toastier next week compared to previous runs. 

 

Previous Run

 

 

 

00Z Today

 

 

[FroYoBro]

I'm just messing. But this run is quite a bit milder. 

 

It certainly looks very different. I don't think it would really much be warmer at the surface. This is probably going to turn into February 2014 at the last minute. 

[Jesse]

I'm just messing. But this run is quite a bit milder.

I don't really believe it until I see the models myself or until someone a bit more reliable chimes in. If the goal of your behavior for the last year or so has been to severely damage your own credibility you have done really well.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks much toastier next week compared to previous runs.

 

Previous Run

 

gfs_T850_nwus_20.png

 

Today

 

gfs_T850_nwus_19.png

?

[chopper 918]

I'm just messing. But this run is quite a bit milder.

So you're saying I won't see snow at my location?

 

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/setting-himself-on-fire.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this is an awful trend. 850s 6-8C warmer through W. Oregon at hour 114! 

 

If we don't have a really meaningful cold snap out of this I am going to be profoundly disappointed. 

[jcmcgaffey]

The ECMWF and GFS MOS are not showing mid to upper 30s on Sunday?

 

 

SEA better starting warming up soon. This shows SEA at 42 at midnight and it's already down to 36 and skies are clear. I'm already down to 31 and the low for tonight was only supposed to be 33.

[luvssnow_spokane]

?

Had the images reversed.. Look again...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep significantly discouraging run when looking at 860mb temps. Significantly warmer!

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow, this is an awful trend. 850s 6-8C warmer through W. Oregon at hour 114! 

 

If we don't have a really meaningful cold snap out of this I am going to be profoundly disappointed. 

Expect it... How we roll here.

[Jesse]

Yep significantly discouraging run when looking at 860mb temps. Significantly warmer!

 

gfs_T850_nwus_22.png

That's a shame. The minute I heard FroYo talking about a low hanging out around the southern Oregon coast I figured the upper level pattern might be getting hung up on this run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That's a shame. The minute I heard FroYo talking about a low hanging out around the southern Oregon coast I figured the upper level pattern might be getting hung up on this run.

maybe.. 

[FroYoBro]

The southern stream pushes up some warmer air in this run making late week much warmer in the upper levels. Should be interesting to see if Euro begins to show this.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS has a high of 34 for Seattle on Sunday that occurs from 4-10AM. By 4PM, temp is under freezing with dps in the low-mid 20s.

If we can get enough snow tomorrow night/Sunday morning, it won't have much chance to melt before we get cold enough to preserve it.

GFS MOS is way more reliable. It will be different.

[Jesse]

The southern stream pushes up some warmer air in this run making late week much warmer in the upper levels. Should be interesting to see if Euro begins to show this,

Hopefully not. Would be a shame to see this all fall apart at the last minute.

[luvssnow_spokane]

hmmmmm  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully not. Would be a shame to see this all fall apart at the last minute.

 

There is a trend for the in terms of days on end of cold days and cold clear nights. I can think of Dec 08 and Feb 14 as prime examples. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

This run is not looking good for next week at all... by far the worse run in a long time. IS this all falling part at the last minute like so often happens here or is this an outlier?.. DunnO... Highly discouraging though for mid next week... it looks like it might improve by the weekend though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not going to lie. This run has me seriously bummed. I really thought we were going to get than January monkey off our backs. 

[Front Ranger]

I am pretty sure most areas below 750 feet will have mostly bare ground by Sunday evening after a high in the mid to upper 30s.

 

The only mitigating factor will be drier air moving in on Sunday.

 

Depends on cloud cover/precip during the day. Very possible there's not much melting at all on Sunday.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Improvements going into Friday!  -- I am not sure if I am buying the warmer outcome this run is showing for next week.  Want to see the eruo first.

 

 

[James Jones]

The Canadian has trended warmer too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Canadian has trended warmer too.

 

Wow. How stupid were we for thinking we could score in January. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain at the lower elevations...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016123100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

[TT-SEA]

Depends on cloud cover/precip during the day. Very possible there's not much melting at all on Sunday.

Very true.

[Bryant]

Wow. How stupid were we for thinking we could score in January.

You could almost say this is, devastating?

[chopper 918]

This is a complete sh**show tonight. Good Lord.