December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

So the Arctic front is here early?

 

SCORE.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Can someone please tell me why everyone is so convinced we are screwed? I just don't see it.

OMG really?!  LOL ... Model progression is moving a** backwards and there is plenty of reasons to be worried. I am not seeing this as a total loss but signal of what many past progression have taken and normally take when the go to hell. It literally blows my mind that you can not see the backwards slide of all the models and many of the so called positive outcome are on the boarder of being a mess. This is such a screwy question I am not even sure why I am replying to it. Currently the pattern is not in our favor only the remnants of whats left that was at one time amazing.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks for keeping it real! Can always count on you!

 

Keeping it real should be our goal.... this is rain even here with a SW wind.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.15.0000.gif

[luminen]

Because Jan 1950 is currently no longer on the table. Makes people negative. I still think we have amazing potential starting today...for the foreseeable future.

 

Realistically, a Jan 1950 type event was never on the table. It was just model porn.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I believe you and that's why I refuse to buy a one-way ticket for the "Suicide Train"

Uhmmmmm ..... Hmmm a little extreme? Maybe you should clear that thought completely... I actually prefer to swerve onto on coming cars at least I have more control to back out at the last second.

[Parksvillewx]

We don't typically see snowless transitions when we have a shortwave digging as far west over the region as shown; I'd be pretty surprised if there wasn't an unanticipated burst of snow over the east side of the island when the cold air finally does arrive. Less favorable looking dynamics have produced significant low level snows in places like Parksville. The typical rain-to-cold dry pattern we see would be the inside slider with shortwave digging starting at northern coast of Oregon or the more vertical ridge with little-to-no positive tilt.

I'm hoping for a surprise here too today. Radar is looking a bit more active over the last hour or so up this way. Currently sitting at 40F.

[TT-SEA]

So the Arctic front is here early?

 

SCORE.

 

36 hours ahead of schedule... plummeting commences now and will not stop!   

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think I might get close to 40 today. pushing 37 now. YAH!!!

[TT-SEA]

OMG really?!  LOL ... Model progression is moving a** backwards and there is plenty of reasons to be worried. I am not seeing this as a total loss but signal of what many past progression have taken and normally take when the go to hell. It literally blows my mind that you can not see the backwards slide of all the models and many of the so called positive outcome are on the boarder of being a mess. This is such a screwy question I am not even sure why I am replying to it. Currently the pattern is not in our favor only the remnants of whats left that was at one time amazing.

 

 

Manic - Depressive

[luvssnow_spokane]

Realistically, a Jan 1950 type event was never on the table. It was just model porn.

OMG! Yes!! thank you!! finally a voice of reason. *hugs*

[Phil]

Another step backwards from the EPS. Especially @ d11-15.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another step backwards from the EPS. Especially @ d11-15.

Jim will not like to hear that. But thank you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another step backwards from the EPS. Especially @ d11-15.

 

Some people would suggest you be put on mod preview for this post. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

currently light drizzle here. For what its worth. 

[HighlandExperience]

Watching this on Amazon prime. It's good.

[chopper 918]

True, but with the broad Hadley Cells today, the entire interactive NPAC structure will often be shifted poleward. So, I wasn't surprised to see it there.

 

If the polar/NAM domain had been more favorable, this would have unfolded much differently IMO.

It's always something and you always find a way to spin it. Good job dog. Pat yourself on the back. Bravo!

[MossMan]

Wow everyone is touchy touchy today...it's like we are about to enter a raging positive PNA and endless 49 degree rain. So depressing having an Arctic front just hours away from sweeping in...so sad indeed.

[Timmy]

Super tiny flakes falling here

[snow_wizard]

One thing to point out is the GFS ensemble and ECMWF ensemble are both clearly showing a second cold wave beginning around the 9th or 10th. That is after the several days of cold weather this coming week. Not wish casting or rose colored glasses...just saying what the two best medium range models are showing. The Canadian ensemble is good in that period also.

 

The mood on here today just has me baffled. A lot of people are going to have snow tonight!

[snow_wizard]

Wow everyone is touchy touchy today...it's like we are about to enter a raging positive PNA and endless 49 degree rain. So depressing having an Arctic front just hours away from sweeping in...so sad indeed.

Just makes it unenjoyable being on here. Stupid.

[Kayla]

Super tiny flakes falling here

 

Good sign for tonight.

[Phil]

It's always something and you always find a way to spin it. Good job dog.

Didn't implicate that as a reason for the trend. Just FYI.

[HighlandExperience]

One thing to point out is the GFS ensemble and ECMWF ensemble are both clearly showing a second cold wave beginning around the 9th or 10th. That is after the several days of cold weather this coming week. Not wish casting or rose colored glasses...just saying what the two best medium range models are showing. The Canadian ensemble is good in that period also.

 

The mood on here today just has me baffled. A lot of people are going to have snow tonight!

Everyone just needs to log into Amazon prime and watch snow day to get in the mood.

[ShawniganLake]

36 hours ahead of schedule... plummeting commences now and will not stop!   

Up to 36F here after a low of 26F.  My dusting of snow this morning has melted. 

 

The last appreciable snowfall here was December 11th, and I still have about 2" of solid ice in my yard from early December. 

[Kayla]

Just saw a report of snowing in Hillsboro?! Can anyone confirm?

 

Edit - Just started here now too!

[snow_wizard]

For he record...going into tonight I know there will be a window where the air mass won't be cold enough for snow. By the time convergence occurs that won't be the case though.

[chopper 918]

FYI, you flip and flop like a fish with every model run. IMO.

[TT-SEA]

Just makes it unenjoyable being on here. Stupid.

 

 

The endless posts from you demanding everyone be super excited are pretty stupid... that I know.

[westcoastexpat]

Another outlander pissing match incoming!!!

 

It's getting exhausting to read 

[epiceast]

For he record...going into tonight I know there will be a window where the air mass won't be cold enough for snow. By the time convergence occurs that won't be the case though.

an area of 925mb temps at -3C and -2C for most of W. WA. I don't know what was modeled but that's plenty cold for precip to change to snow and accumulate if you can get it to rain moderately for 30 minutes.

[luvssnow_spokane]

snowing in fed way... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

Everyone needs to stop antagonizing Jim, and Jim needs to stop telling people how they should feel.

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be fun being one of the only ones on the forum right about all of this. There are a few others also I know.

[snow_wizard]

an area of 925mb temps at -3C and -2C for most of W. WA. I don't know what was modeled but that's plenty cold for precip to change to snow and accumulate if you can get it to rain moderately for 30 minutes.

That's cold enough for snow in all cases.

[Laura]

Group hug??

[snow_wizard]

Everyone needs to stop antagonizing Jim, and Jim needs to stop telling people how they should feel.

It's just frustrating how what would normally considered good ensemble runs are being discounted. I guess people will have to see for themselves.

[TT-SEA]

It's going to be fun being one of the only ones on the forum right about all of this. There are a few others also I know.

 

 

I hope its cold and snowy at my house!    

[The Swamp]

Over performance so far.

 

It's snowed twice today.

[snow_wizard]

snowing in fed way... 

 

018vc00078.jpg

 

005vc14388.jpg

 

005vc14300.jpg

You're seeing things.

[epiceast]

That's cold enough for snow in all cases.

Seems that way, snowing in seatac and the returns don't even support moderate rain. Also not much daytime warming from south flow or sun, I don't see an 38 degree obs.