12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Andrew NE]

Looking good, for most. Feel for the KC and OK people; hell, I still feel for NE and C. IA, b/c this could easily change---wish we were 36 hours out or less. But, it's nice to see

You nailed it, lol. Wish it was Thursday night!

[gosaints]

Second piece has big time potential...blizzard like conditions along the Lake Michigan shoreline in WI...

I wish the euro would jump on board. I am glad I have learned to take each model run with a grain of salt.

[CentralNebWeather]

Low seemed to sit in Colorado longer while deepening. Am I seeing that correctly? For those with more knowledge, what changed so much on this run for the difference?

[Tom]

Very close to having blizzard conditions in E NE/IA with wind gusts of 35-40mph for a 6 hour period.  Nice development.

[Money]

Even though GGEM is south and weaker with surface low the waa snows look great

[GDR]

[gosaints]

Even though GGEM is south and weaker with surface low the waa snows look great

If thats the low end of potential. We doing well

[hlcater]

The temperatures that follow this system..... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121300/138/sfct.conus.png

[Money]

If thats the low end of potential. We doing well

I think the low end for us is 6 or so but if gfs is right sky is the limit

[Tom]

Low seemed to sit in Colorado longer while deepening. Am I seeing that correctly? For those with more knowledge, what changed so much on this run for the difference?

I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure.

[gosaints]

The temperatures that follow this system..... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121300/138/sfct.conus.png

Ya the system winds up like the gfs is will pull the hell out of the cold

[winterfreak]

Miserable cold after to top it all off .

[CentralNebWeather]

I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure.

I would love to see that trend in future runs also. Thanks for the info Tom.

[ToastedRavs]

GFS spits out .84" QPF for DSM for the event.  The Kuchera gave us 12" even so only 12-13:1 ratios if my math right, which it probably isn't.  I think we'll have higher ratios on the back side of system; however good luck measuring in 30-40mph winds. LOL

[CentralNebWeather]

Miserable cold after to top it all off .

As much as this has come south in the last few days, I don't think we have seen the last of the changes.

[gosaints]

I'd like to see more model runs if this is a trend or not, but it seems the GFS hangs back the energy longer which produces a stronger low pressure.

Slower is better as low as the high to the north plays ball. It does on the gfs. Not so much on thw ggem

[Tom]

That would be rip city under that band in Wisco, esp along the lake with Lehs...very cold 850's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121300/gfs_T850_ncus_21.png

[Snowshoe]

Slower, stronger but pretty much same track.

[Tom]

Slower is better as low as the high to the north plays ball. It does on the gfs. Not so much on thw ggem

Ride the GFS with love???  Haha...its been the go-to model...hope to see the Euro come on board tonight...

[gosaints]

Would think the zr threat would be high to the east and maybe ne of that low as well

[Tom]

Would think the zr threat would be high to the east and maybe ne of that low as well

Ya, I see that warm tongue creeping up pretty far north on the ensembles also...

[Money]

Only 3 days of model watching or so

[Tom]

Local met Brant Miller was geeking off of the 18z GFS model run...Skilling is having fun also!

[Money]

GGEM actually looks similar to gfs but it ends up weakening the low

[gosaints]

GGEM actually looks similar to gfs but it ends up weakening the low

 

Its closing to being better

[East Dubzz]

Anyone got precip maps for CMC?

[ToastedRavs]

Looks like the overruning is further north on the Canadian, at least initially.  Getting pushed ironically toward the Canadian border---those greedy bastards

[Jaycee]

Just got a subscription to IWM for this storm. Better not fail me now. 

 

Here's the CMC snowfall:

[ToastedRavs]

[ToastedRavs]

Weaker on the CMC, but at least it gives snow to KC and parts of OK!

[ToastedRavs]

Here's the snow on CMC for Central OK up through central NE

[Money]

It got close...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121300/102/prateptype.us_mw.png

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121300/114/prateptype.us_mw.png

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie--- don't know why any others do not post the Ukie ,, but my .02 is that its much better then the CMC...

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Euro #'s-

 

MSP-

FRI 12Z 16-DEC -15.2   -12.9    1023      80      99    0.01     539     522    FRI 18Z 16-DEC -10.7   -12.2    1016      71     100    0.01     541     528    SAT 00Z 17-DEC -10.5   -12.2    1010      85      97    0.26     538     531    SAT 06Z 17-DEC -10.9   -14.6    1007      86      97    0.18     534     528    SAT 12Z 17-DEC -12.7   -17.2    1010      80      95    0.03     531     523    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -16.0   -19.2    1018      62      98    0.01     527     513

OMA-

THU 18Z 15-DEC  -7.6   -12.2    1031      38      99    0.01     553     529    FRI 00Z 16-DEC  -6.9    -9.9    1025      34      76    0.01     555     535    FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -7.0    -8.6    1021      26      78    0.00     556     540    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -3.6    -4.8    1014      33      56    0.00     556     545    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -1.1    -1.3    1006      65      39    0.02     552     547    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -1.8    -1.0     999      91      53    0.07     548     548    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -2.9    -5.3    1002      86      59    0.03     546     544    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -8.7   -15.1    1012      64      84    0.01     543     534    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -13.6   -19.6    1021      54      97    0.01     538     522    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -16.3   -22.2    1029      53      81    0.05     532     511

DSM-

FRI 00Z 16-DEC  -8.6   -11.4    1029      36     100    0.01     551     529    FRI 06Z 16-DEC  -7.7    -9.2    1025      34      89    0.00     553     534    FRI 12Z 16-DEC  -5.9    -7.1    1019      31      76    0.00     554     540    FRI 18Z 16-DEC  -2.8    -2.6    1011      47      48    0.01     553     544    SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -3.8    -2.1    1002      85      66    0.11     548     546    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -3.0    -1.5    1000      91      63    0.09     546     546    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -6.1    -9.5    1007      77      73    0.01     544     539    SAT 18Z 17-DEC -10.7   -16.9    1015      60      87    0.01     541     529    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -17.3   -19.1    1024      62      95    0.06     534     516    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -20.6   -22.0    1031      64      20    0.01     530     507 

ORD-

SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -6.4    -5.7    1014      71      99    0.04     549     539    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -3.5    -3.7    1003      84      91    0.24     546     543    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -1.5    -0.1    1000      95      61    0.12     547     547    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -2.4    -1.3    1003      85      67    0.06     547     545    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -6.9    -8.8    1009      80      98    0.07     543     537    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -11.3   -13.7    1015      78      93    0.01     538     526 

MSN-

SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -9.0    -9.1    1012      78     100    0.08     545     536    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -7.3    -7.8    1004      89      98    0.24     541     539    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -6.8    -6.3    1002      90      75    0.04     542     540    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -8.1   -10.7    1007      76      89    0.01     540     535    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -10.0   -14.3    1011      76      94    0.06     535     526    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -17.7   -18.3    1020      68      76    0.03     528     513

OSH-

SAT 00Z 17-DEC  -7.5   -11.6    1014      83      99    0.10     543     533    SAT 06Z 17-DEC  -5.4   -10.4    1005      88      96    0.34     539     535    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -5.8    -9.5    1002      89      82    0.07     539     537    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -7.5   -11.3    1005      78      97    0.03     537     534    SUN 00Z 18-DEC  -6.6   -14.8    1009      78      91    0.03     533     526    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -14.9   -19.1    1018      71      83    0.03     525     512

[ToastedRavs]

Ukie--- don't know why any others do not post the Ukie ,, but my .02 is that its much better then the CMC...

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

 

I don't because the Canucks are easier to make fun of on here than the Brits.  It's hard to type out the British accent and have it understood.  That's what it's all aboooowt

[Grizzcoat]

I don't because the Canucks are easier to make fun of on here than the Brits.  It's hard to type out the British accent and have it understood.  That's what it's all aboooowt

It's all the same, eh?

[Grizzcoat]

Even some love for the folks in KC!!

MCI

FRI 18Z 16-DEC   0.7     3.0    1007      74      32    0.01     559     554    SAT 00Z 17-DEC   4.5     5.7     997      93      33    0.02     555     558    SAT 06Z 17-DEC   5.8     7.1     995      98      49    0.00     553     558    SAT 12Z 17-DEC  -2.1    -3.7    1006      83      45    0.01     552     547    SAT 18Z 17-DEC  -6.7   -12.5    1015      57      95    0.02     549     537    SUN 00Z 18-DEC -12.2   -17.2    1024      61      89    0.09     543     525    SUN 06Z 18-DEC -15.9   -19.3    1033      50       3    0.03     540     516 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro--- again 10:1