TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not realistic, especially down here. It will be interesting to see how this plays out... maybe Portland and the basin just stay chilly at the surface. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 It will be interesting to see how this plays out... maybe Portland and the basin just stay chilly at the surface. Yeah have a really hard time believing the east side cold pool gets scurried out as much as the WRF shows. It's pretty established and will most likely only continue to strengthen into Saturday morning. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1448231956339 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS puts us into a nice little fake cold period next weekend. I'd take it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I feel that GEM ZR output is overdone for most areas. Highly doubt I get half an inch of zr here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I feel that GEM ZR output is overdone for most areas. Highly doubt I get half an inch of zr here. Agreed. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete.Awesome. How long's it been since you could do that? And how much snow is there on the ground at lake level? Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete.90% of Lake Goodwin is also now frozen over as well! What are your thoughts on this weekend and next weeks possible snow for us noth enders? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I honestly have no idea how this weekend will play out, probably something between January 04 epic ness and dec 09 weak sauce Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow, Bozeman is running a -26 departure so far this month. PDX's -8 departure all of sudden doesn't seem all that exciting! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I honestly have no idea how this weekend will play out, probably something between January 04 epic ness and dec 09 weak sauceTough call, but I'd lean at this point toward this being primarily a west hills east setup for anything prolonged. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. Gfs would absolutely bury the hood canal and north sound. Should be some happy people if that verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week. I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....Solutions that rely on a low tracking perfectly just to our South like that a week out are never going to generate too much excitement. The much more likely solution will be that low tracking too far North for everyone but maybe Whatcom County / BC in my opinion. The possibility is certainly there for something big just about anywhere, but a lot of things would have to break just right. Especially the further South you go. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 -7 degrees this morning in Klamath Falls. That was 5-6 cooler than forecast. Maybe -14 to -16 tomorrow? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week. I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....I'm not burnt out...I'm excited! Great chance of scoring something substantial finally! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Tough call, but I'd lean at this point toward this being primarily a west hills east setup for anything prolonged.Yeah definitely not expecting to go above freezing until late Monday morning at the earliest up here. Dew points have recovered a bit, will be interesting if they plummet again Friday night and what the effect of that would be to the longevity of the event for PDX metro area. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. PDX hit 17. New January benchmark for this century. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Solutions that rely on a low tracking perfectly just to our South like that a week out are never going to generate too much excitement. The much more likely solution will be that low tracking too far North for everyone but maybe Whatcom County / BC in my opinion. The possibility is certainly there for something big just about anywhere, but a lot of things would have to break just right. Especially the further South you go.Exactly... Way to far out and way to close to being a miss. Even 24 hours out on a borderline setup like this is really tough to predict. So, at this point I can lean toward a wait and see view. Based on recent history, averages, and the setup I highly expect it to bust or be a northern event only. Low expectations but hopeful!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 That low is a lot stronger at hour 60 compared to the 00z euro last night... Will it curve further offshore? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 This weekends event (PDX) knows nothing of the past. This scenario that will play out will be unique with its own set of variables. I've been caught off guard too many times when I used to live down here. The Gorge is an awesome weather machine and I absolutely love the uncertainty going into these overrunning events. Meanwhile in Federal way we will roll over quickly with no fight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week. I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited.... Model overload/burnout. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yeah definitely not expecting to go above freezing until late Monday morning at the earliest up here. Dew points have recovered a bit, will be interesting if they plummet again Friday night and what the effect of that would be to the longevity of the event for PDX metro area.Offshore flow ahead of the system will be a gap wind, which usually doesn't really redry the air mass, just maintains a lower dew point profile. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. PDX hit 17. New January benchmark for this century. Nice! And a new record low for the date. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week. I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited.... It still gets me excited. Our weather is too sketchy to actually know what is going to happen even 24 hours out in some cases to not hold out some hope of verification. Besides that a s**t load of snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z Euro wants to give PDX 3-4 inches this weekend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z Euro wants to give PDX 3-4 inches this weekend. Was just going to say... The whole column stays below freezing until early Sunday morning now. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Okay so the lows from this morning are in. PDX hit 17! Coldest January low since either 82' or 84' I will have to check. Eugene checked it 13! Astoria 22SLE 21HIO 15KVOU 15Medford 14The Dalles 5Pendleton 0Hermiston -4Klamath Falls -9 (Ties record)La Grande -9Burns -11Baker City -24 (Breaks record of -22 set in 1950)Meacham -28 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. PDX hit 17. New January benchmark for this century. Nice. SEA, in their usual decoupling suckiness, couldn't hit 20 even with snow cover. McChord hit 10, and a good other number of places bottomed out in the 10-13 range, so a fairly impressive event overall. Top 2 coldest January temps many places for the 21st century. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Then there is this... RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON432 AM PST THU JAN 5 2017CORRECTION......RECORD DAILY LOW AT HOOD RIVER...AT 4 AM...TEMPERATURE AT HOOD RIVER WAS 1 DEG ABOVE ZERO.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR JAN 5...WHICH WAS 3 DEGABOVE ZERO IN 2004. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. Gfs would absolutely bury the hood canal and north sound. Should be some happy people if that verified.Yep, Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit! The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Was just going to say... The whole column stays below freezing until early Sunday morning now.The return of the king? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nice! And a new record low for the date. Yep, first record low in January at PDX since 1982. A great weight has been lifted off our shoulders. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Offshore flow ahead of the system will be a gap wind, which usually doesn't really redry the air mass, just maintains a lower dew point profile. This is a great point and totally didn't even think about that. So even with 850mb east side cold pool of -14c you think the dew point profile there will still not be enough to dry us out anymore than we currently are? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit! The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924. First record low set at PDX since....?? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking regionally (which can be really hard to do) many have been more than "teased". Even in regard to record breaking snowfall.I agree. I'm thinking more of the populated areas. Most of us have been disenfranchised. I'm calling the young turks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit! The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924.Low hanging or not, this is their first January record low in 35 years. Nice to get that monkey off our backs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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