January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan 4th.  5"

 

How did the Eugene airport only record 0.6" that day? I know people who live literally next to the airport and the easily had 2-3". 

[Jesse]

~1.5 (hard to tell with blowing and drifting) on December 14th.

[Perturbed Member]

Deep easterly flow has been the theme with all these systems. This one should be better than Saturday in that there won't be such a ridiculously deep layer of dry air going into it. Should be more like 12-14 on the west and south sides of the metro.

 

The biggest plus at the moment is the fact there's a little more backside precip and obviously no warm nose.

 

So an improved version of 12/14, I think I can work with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So an improved version of 12/14, I think I can work with that. 

 

I see this as having the potential to be a bit more widespread with a bit more uniform amounts. I think the upside is a little lower or about the same on amounts...

[Blizzard777]

Can someone Q me in on where the cold air will be supplied for this next possible event. I only got down to 34 last night here in Federal way. Seems like the air east of us has moderated a bit too. Learn me please

[Deweydog]

So an improved version of 12/14, I think I can work with that.

That's one scenario. We'll see how the models look 24 hours from now.

[Dave]

How did the Eugene airport only record 0.6" that day? I know people who live literally next to the airport and the easily had 2-3". 

I thought that was odd as well.  It seemed that Eugene proper was about the boundary for the heavy snow, although there were much higher totals than .6 much farther north than the airport.  Maybe someone peed in the sensor?  There were plenty of reports of 5 inches all through town including the downtown area.  The airport is located 7 miles from my location as the crow flies.  I got 5 inches wednesday and 3 on saturday.  8 inch seasonal total.

[luvssnow_spokane]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

0.5 inch total for the entire season.

[Dave]

BTW, I tried to help out PDX for snow this time.  Did no one see the hidden froggy?

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1480-january-2017-observations-and-model-discussion-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=203866

[bainbridgekid]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

3.5" on 12/8.

 

That's also the only snowfall I've seen though. My house also got about a 1/4" two days before Christmas and again New Years Eve, but I was in Chicago for those.

[stuffradio]

The new ECMWF weekly ensemble has above normal 850 anomaly temps most of the time with only some below normal 850 temps.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The new ECMWF weekly ensemble has above normal 850 anomaly temps most of the time with only some below normal 850 temps.

Well, pattern reset and change was expected. So good to see it playing. 

[Jesse]

I thought that was odd as well. It seemed that Eugene proper was about the boundary for the heavy snow, although there were much higher totals than .6 much farther north than the airport. Maybe someone peed in the sensor? There were plenty of reports of 5 inches all through town including the downtown area. The airport is located 7 miles from my location as the crow flies. I got 5 inches wednesday and 3 on saturday. 8 inch seasonal total.

That would be a lot of pee to melt down that many inches. At least two Four Lokos worth.

[Jesse]

[Perturbed Member]

I see this as having the potential to be a bit more widespread with a bit more uniform amounts. I think the upside is a little lower or about the same on amounts...

 

 I think all the models had less qpf with that system, especially PDX metro and north. I do think it will be a bit more widespread but the amounts should be noticeably higher too. Up here maybe more in the 2-4 inch range instead of 1-3 with the last one. 

[Dave]

Oh, I saw.

I realized he was well camouflaged so wasn't sure.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS just issued a winter weather advisory for the foothills of the N. Oregon Cascades...Nothing yet for the valley...Hmmm

[Dave]

I expect an AFD the size of a novel will be revealed any minute.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The afternoon forecast package makes little sense...What a mess...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I expect an AFD the size of a novel will be revealed any minute.

 

No watches or warnings Salem-EUG. Then they say 500-1000' snow levels tonight for Salem/PDX and say the snow level will be 2000' in the foothills zone forecast...Even though the WWA says 1000'...Good lord...

[Parksvillewx]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

3" on Dec 4th

[bainbridgekid]

I can't ever remember a Winter that had so much sustained cold and so many snow chances with so little actual snowfall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro weeklies say winter cancel.

[BLI snowman]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

2.8" on 12/14

[Blizzard777]

I can't ever remember a Winter that had so much sustained cold and so many snow chances with so little actual snowfall.

And now we have one to remember and I don't like it!

[DareDuck]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

14" on 12/8 and 14" 1/3-4.

[Heavy Snow]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

4“ on 12/14/16

[MossMan]

I can't ever remember a Winter that had so much sustained cold and so many snow chances with so little actual snowfall.

Also the fact that we have somehow avoided a region wide overrunning event. Its almost becoming comical. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4“ on 12/14/16

 

That is some heavy snow!!!

[MossMan]

What is everyone's largest snowfall this season so far?

2" on 12/23.

[bainbridgekid]

Also the fact that we have somehow avoided a region wide overrunning event. Its almost becoming comical. 

The overall lack of overrunning snowfall since December 2008 has definitely been a general source of frustration.

 

Dec. 2009, Nov. 2010, Feb. 2011, Dec. 2013, and Feb. 2014 were all significant arctic blasts with very little overrunning snow around Seattle.

 

January 2012 had a ton of snow, but wasn't a true overrunning event since the low pulled in the cold air as it approached as opposed to overrunning and eroding arctic air that was already in place.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I bet the low for mid week comes in stronger and even further north. Its going to bomb out at the last second.

[HighlandExperience]

I bet the low for mid week comes in stronger and even further north. Its going to bomb out at the last second.

Yup

[HighlandExperience]

The overall lack of overrunning snowfall since January 2012 has definitely been a general source of frustration.

Hard to believe we have gone that long since we've had a widespread snow. Shows how pathetic this area has become.

[Heavy Snow]

That is some heavy snow!!!

Yeah it was more than I expected. I live on top of a hill though.

[bainbridgekid]

18z 3km ParaNAM: Even when the model whacks out and gives everyone in the PNW a snowstorm, Puget Sound STILL doesn't score! 

We'd never hear from Jim again if that verified. 

[Prairiedog]

Someone had wishcasted 10" that was 360 hours out in la la land and said it was a done deal.  It fell in my dreams so can I count that?  10" of virtual snow has got to count for something.  I got  1.5" of real snow that fell that wasn't foercasted inside 12hrs on 1/4

[DareDuck]

We'd never hear from Jim again if that verified.

Or anyone else.

[Dave]

Odd that NWS still says the Wedsnesday system favors Salem and Eugene.  Are there any models that show that?

 

From the recent AFD:

 

However, there is modest potential for a few inches of snow mainly
For the Salem and Eugene areas with some threat for around an inch
In the Portland Metro area overnight Tuesday Night and Wednesday
Morning. Stay tuned as details on Wednesday morning commute impacts
evolve.

[Deweydog]

Odd that NWS still says the Wedsnesday system favors Salem and Eugene. Are there any models that show that?

 

From the recent AFD:

 

However, there is modest potential for a few inches of snow mainly

For the Salem and Eugene areas with some threat for around an inch

In the Portland Metro area overnight Tuesday Night and Wednesday

Morning. Stay tuned as details on Wednesday morning commute impacts

evolve.

I already told you. 3-5 inches for Eugene. You may be rain to start, though.