January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

Great to see the NAM on board and showing the deformation band. I like PDX Metro's chances this week to score something big.

 

Yeah NAM and GFS have some decent degree of agreement. GFS shows the deformation band too, but the NAM is quicker in developing it and has it quite a bit stronger. I'm still skeptical about this until the euro signs off on it. 

 

Not that the weather cares about my opinion, but I'd be just fine if this boundary setup over the sound instead of over us. We've kind of had more than our fair share here already and even an inch or two would make snow starved folks happy.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

[ShawniganLake]

Yikes. Getting really close to 50 degrees here. It has been awhile.

[snow_wizard]

I miss seeing puget sound posters. We see a few of em here and there, but nothing like we used to

 

This has been really painful for most of us.  I'm not real surprised most have stopped posting.

 

It will be interesting to see if we can squeeze something out of this little cold snap coming up.  I suppose anything is possible.

[TT-SEA]

Yikes. Getting really close to 50 degrees here. It has been awhile.

 

 

Windy?   Sunny?

 

This front is racing through way faster than the models showed during the week.  

[snow_wizard]

I'd sacrifice seeing anything here for that to happen.

 

Thanks dude!

[ShawniganLake]

Windy? Sunny?

 

This front is racing through way faster than the models showed during the week.

Windy with sunny breaks.

[TT-SEA]

I miss seeing puget sound posters. We see a few of em here and there, but nothing like we used to

 

I think most people tune in here when something interesting is happening.   There were many Puget Sound posters in December and early January.    Even if there was a big event here... many of them would not be posting now until the next event.     Who are you thinking about?

[Heavy Snow]

Yeah NAM and GFS have some decent degree of agreement. GFS shows the deformation band too, but the NAM is quicker in developing it and has it quite a bit stronger. I'm still skeptical about this until the euro signs off on it.

 

Not that the weather cares about my opinion, but I'd be just fine if this boundary setup over the sound instead of over us. We've kind of had more than our fair share here already and even an inch or two would make snow starved folks happy.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

Yeah the 12z GEM was also showing a deformation band over PDX on Wednesday, now we just need the EURO to get onboard. I think this event will be more widespread than the last one. Models are showing moisture eventually making it's way to the Sound, so I like their chances too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_13.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yikes. Getting really close to 50 degrees here. It has been awhile.

 

Pretty rare to see it warmer in Shawnigan than in Victoria proper in the winter. I wonder if we're heading for a warmup to follow. Still sitting at 44F here.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty rare to see it warmer in Shawnigan than in Victoria proper in the winter. I wonder if we're heading for a warmup to follow. Still sitting at 44F here.

Gusty SW winds here. That's the only way it gets above 50 here during the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Little chance the Puget Sound area will see snow on a transition event at the end of the cold snap coming up. Too much easterly gradient. Some flurries going into the cold might be a small possibility though.

[snow_wizard]

I think all of the blocks have been too top heavy to favor snow for the Seattle area this winter. It's just not conducive to the details working out properly for us. Once we lose the high surface pressure to our WNW it really hurts our chances in most cases.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the 18z GFS is disappointing all around, precipitation continues to be an issue for northern areas. In other news, the Shawnigan warm front has hit Victoria, the temperature has shot up to 48F and is rising quickly.

[MossMan]

Well if we are screwed in the snow department (for about the 13th time this season) how are we looking temp wise? Could we see lows in the teens again during this cold snap?

[bainbridgekid]

Windy? Sunny?

 

This front is racing through way faster than the models showed during the week.

It's been breezier than I was expecting here today.

 

Trees swinging around and clouds shooting across the sky. Pretty mild though with plenty of sunbreaks. I was lucky. Not a bad weekend for moving.

[Phil]

I think all of the blocks have been too top heavy to favor snow for the Seattle area this winter. It's just not conducive to the details working out properly for us. Once we lose the high surface pressure to our WNW it really hurts our chances in most cases.

The problem this winter was the strong PV/U-winds in the upper troposphere and stratosphere would tilt and decapitate the anticyclonic wavebreaks (GOA/EPO ridges) that attempted to amplify, which lead to blocks that tended to "lean" on a positive axis and subsequently retrograde too far west into the WPO domain, which capped WAFz into the PV/NAM domain through the NPAC conduit, which further strengthened the vortex.

 

Here's something interesting to note. The winters of 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 have featured one of the most stable, baratropic PV states on record (on aggregate). By comparison, the winters of 2008/09, 2009/10, and 2010/11 were quite opposite, featuring an unstable, baroclinic PV state.

 

Might be something to monitor in future winters.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS sets up the deformation further south. Doesn't even quite make it to PDX, some snow a bit further south in the Willamette valley but really the deformation band doesn't look impressive. Models do tend to underestimate these sometimes though.

[Front Ranger]

It's been breezier than I was expecting here today.

 

Trees swinging around and clouds shooting across the sky. Pretty mild though with plenty of sunbreaks. I was lucky. Not a bad weekend for moving.

 

Where are you moving to?

[Phil]

What's ironic is that the upcoming pattern is ideal for breaking down and reversing the PV/NAM state, and if this pattern had occurred in December, we'd be looking at a truly historic January in the west. Or if it had happened in January, like it did in 1989, February would have been the big month. Won't see the resonant effects of this one until late February or early March.

 

We saw this pattern develop in November, however, that was too early because the tropical forcing conduits hadn't matured into their midwinter state, and early disturbances of the upper atmospheric thermal profile actually make for easier PV recovery thereafter given the insolation gradient works to strengthen the PV into early January..as opposed to midwinter PV breakdowns which rarely recover thereafter given the increase in insolation and O^3 production.

[bainbridgekid]

Where are you moving to?

Just into a house 6 blocks away so still in Mountlake Terrace.

 

My apartment complex raised my rent $200 so I told them I was out of there. Found a room in a house for less than half as much money and the plan is to save for a downpayment on a house possibly as early as this Summer.

 

The new place is 100 feet higher though. Maybe it'll make a difference!

[snow_wizard]

Well the 18z GFS is disappointing all around, precipitation continues to be an issue for northern areas. In other news, the Shawnigan warm front has hit Victoria, the temperature has shot up to 48F and is rising quickly.

Today was a actually quite a bit cooler here than the last two days. Funny how things work out around here.

[snow_wizard]

Just into a house 6 blocks away so still in Mountlake Terrace.

 

My apartment complex raised my rent $200 so I told them I was out of there. Found a room in a house for less than half as much money and the plan is to save for a downpayment on a house possibly as early as this Summer.

 

The new place is 100 feet higher though. Maybe it'll make a difference!

In that area 100 feet and one mile of distance can make all the difference in the world.

 

Very cool you might be able to buy a house. Sooooo worth it!

[snow_wizard]

Well if we are screwed in the snow department (for about the 13th time this season) how are we looking temp wise? Could we see lows in the teens again during this cold snap?

Could be a reasonably solid cold shot. The 12z ECMWF shows 850s dropping to -7 now with some Fraser outflow. Maybe one or two days with highs in the 30s. I would say lows upper teens to mid 20s on the one or two coldest nights depending on wind speed and cloud cover. You can't say we haven't had cold this winter.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Today was a actually quite a bit cooler here than the last two days. Funny how things work out around here.

 

You probably get a bit of low level cold air pooling with the SW winds to keep your temperatures down. The Saanich Peninsula warms up pretty rapidly under SW flow, it's up to 49F here now and over 50F in several spots.

[MossMan]

Today ended up being dry and breezy so it was perfect for a nice hike!

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS put snow in the forecast already for Wednesday. At this rate, they might as well issue the WSW after the 00z suite tonight. 

 

 

Big changes are in the offing for Wednesday and beyond as increasing
east winds bring much cooler air to the region and could lower snow
levels dramatically. While model details have been varying quite a
bit, it appears that the increasing offshore flow Tuesday night and
Wednesday will lead to significant cooling across our area that could
lower snow levels significantly by Wednesday, possibly close to the
valley floors. The air mass southward through much of the Willamette
Valley could see much of this cooling as.well The problem will be the
moisture. The current crop of models are suggesting an initial wave
of moisture could begin spreading north as early as Wednesday, though
the strong east winds could slow and erode the northward progression
of the moisture into the Portland and Vancouver areas. 

 

All of that said, this set up is not too unlike the one that brought
the big snow to the area January 10-11th, and in which the models had
trouble ever forecasting the amount of precipitation that we ended up
receiving, so stay tuned. Tolleson

 

 

 

I'm hoping like the 1/10 event, the deformation band is much stronger than what the models currently show.

[Front Ranger]

PDX NWS put snow in the forecast already for Wednesday. At this rate, they might as well issue the WSW after the 00z suite tonight. 

 

 

Big changes are in the offing for Wednesday and beyond as increasing

east winds bring much cooler air to the region and could lower snow

levels dramatically. While model details have been varying quite a

bit, it appears that the increasing offshore flow Tuesday night and

Wednesday will lead to significant cooling across our area that could

lower snow levels significantly by Wednesday, possibly close to the

valley floors. The air mass southward through much of the Willamette

Valley could see much of this cooling as.well The problem will be the

moisture. The current crop of models are suggesting an initial wave

of moisture could begin spreading north as early as Wednesday, though

the strong east winds could slow and erode the northward progression

of the moisture into the Portland and Vancouver areas. 

 

All of that said, this set up is not too unlike the one that brought

the big snow to the area January 10-11th, and in which the models had

trouble ever forecasting the amount of precipitation that we ended up

receiving, so stay tuned. Tolleson

 

 

 

I'm hoping like the 1/10 event, the deformation band is much stronger than what the models currently show.

 

Didn't take long for them to pull out the 1/10/17 analog! 

[HighlandExperience]

Well if we are screwed in the snow department (for about the 13th time this season) how are we looking temp wise? Could we see lows in the teens again during this cold snap?

I fully expect highs in the low 40s with sunshine. I'm sure TT will post pics of flowers.

[Bryant]

I think most people tune in here when something interesting is happening. There were many Puget Sound posters in December and early January. Even if there was a big event here... many of them would not be posting now until the next event. Who are you thinking about?

I figured that was implied. I'm thinking about the Puget Sound members as a whole. It's nice to be able to relate with posters, but it's hard when the action has been 250 miles away. A good storm over the area could make this a nice region wide winter, but as mentioned, it's a winter that won't be remembered by many on here

[BLI snowman]

NAM is purdy. We might just get spoiled.

[Perturbed Member]

Deformation band never really seems to move too far north of about Kelso. The snow map does have a bit of that 1/10/2017 deja vu going on.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013000/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

[Perturbed Member]

This situation is marginal. Won't be anything like your last snowstorm.

 

Obviously.

A repeat of 1/10/2017 isn't happening, but the overall setup does have a lot of similarities. We pretty much needed everything to unfold just perfectly for that last event. A smaller event isn't crazy talk though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM is purdy. We might just get spoiled.

Could be fun times

[snow_wizard]

NAM is purdy. We might just get spoiled.

If this happens it just goes to prove the atmosphere does have a memory of sorts within a given season. Really weird how even finer details can repeat after a complete reset.

[snow_wizard]

As for here. I'm resigned to the fact it's over for us.

[MossMan]

NAM is purdy. We might just get spoiled.

Purdy shitty.

[HighlandExperience]

As for here. I'm resigned to the fact it's over for us.

Just not our winter. The fine details really have been screwing us.

[Heavy Snow]

Deformation band never really seems to move too far north of about Kelso. The snow map does have a bit of that 1/10/2017 deja vu going on.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013000/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

Things are starting to look good. After hour 84, there is more snow coming.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017013000/084/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

As for here. I'm resigned to the fact it's over for us.

Yep

[HighlandExperience]

Purdy shitty.

Very frustrating. Lots can change in 3 days though.