Tom Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Model consensus at this stage of the game is still far apart among the models. However, it does seem like there will be a weather cocktail of precip types with this long duration system as it cuts off and slowly migrates into the central CONUS. 12z GFS: Ice: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011012/174/zr_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 12z GGEM... ICE: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011012/186/zr_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 A truly remarkable amount of freezing rain over that large of an area. Doesn't look good. Ice is the worst. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 A truly remarkable amount of freezing rain over that large of an area. Doesn't look good. Ice is the worst.Agree, I would take sleet all day long over freezing rain. That is just the absolute worst thing ever! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS puking out half inch of ice and 4" of snow for mby. What a mess that would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siggy44 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I hope this isn't a replay of 2002 for KC, that was bad I lost power for a week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011012/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 No, no, no. Silly models I wanted SNOW not ICE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Wish I had access to the EURO Qpf's. If anyone could post those that'd be awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 If it does ice I should stock up on beer Saturday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Super slow mover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011012/ecmwf_T850_us_7.pngRain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 its a spring cutoff on the EURO or course with a colder airmass that it runs into Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Rain?Looks like it to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice. http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice. http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. Lived in S. Bend at that time and was taken by surprise by that bliz. Was fun seeing stuck vehicles on the way home, and we were on the very east edge of the meaningful impact zone. Krazy storm iirc, rained for like an entire day before turning into a snowstorm outta nowhere. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I wonder if this added snowcover in WI/MN could help keep temps down enough for frozen precip. Some areas could get up to a foot of snow in the next few days Seems like GFS is colder than last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I wonder if this added snowcover in WI/MN could help keep temps down enough for frozen precip. Some areas could get up to a foot of snow in the next few days Seems like GFS is colder than last runMoney you have access to precip maps for the EURO right? If not no worries, but I'd really appreciate it if you could post them! Trying to get a general consensus on what we're dealing with this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Money you have access to precip maps for the EURO right? If not no worries, but I'd really appreciate it if you could post them! Trying to get a general consensus on what we're dealing with this weekend.I'll be home in about an hour or so and I'll let you know 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Money you have access to precip maps for the EURO right? If not no worries, but I'd really appreciate it if you could post them! Trying to get a general consensus on what we're dealing with this weekend. Lincoln is pretty much all rain. Central NE gets hit with ice and western NE gets hit with snow (8-10+) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Lincoln is pretty much all rain. Central NE gets hit with ice and western NE gets hit with snow (8-10+)Kind of what I figured judging by those 850 maps. Thanks for the update though!! Interested to see how the GFS takes it, Flowers is saying EURO is the outlier, not sure I buy that necessarily but who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Hope this turns out into a massive snowstorm! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Last time we had that much Ice in the forecast was the Blizzard of March 1998. Huge ice storm followed by 6-12" of snow closed the county for a few days with the roads being impassible because of the ice underneath all the snow. Probably the worst storm I have ever exeprienced. I think we were 2 days without power because of all the ice. http://www.lowellpl.lib.in.us/icestorm.htm.. I remember a friend of mine was traveling from Montreal to London at that time and his flight got canceled because of an massive icestorm in the Montreal area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 @indianajohn I heard Chios is having some snow. I even saw some impressive photos. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Freezing rain totals. I remember when Nebraska really wasn't in the freezing rain threat. Hope it goes back that way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 @indianajohn I heard Chios is having some snow. I even saw some impressive photos.yea almost all of southern Greece including a lot of the islands seen snow.....Crazy!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Freezing rain totals. I remember when Nebraska really wasn't in the freezing rain threat. Hope it goes back that way!I'm pretty confident we see plain rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 I'm pretty confident we see plain rainWhat makes u think that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 NAM freezing rain through HR 84 (obv. a lot more to come. This is mainly 1st wave) http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011100/078/zr_acc.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 12z GFS Para: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2017011012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 What makes u think that?General trends this season where storms have gone NW. Im about 75% confident Lincoln sees minimal icing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 GFS through 108: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011100/108/zr_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Well the 00z GFS gives us even more than the 18z, so it's trending towards an ice storm, a strong one at that. Gives lincoln .8" thru 144hr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 0z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011100/150/zr_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011100/150/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 GEM nails KS/NE with ice again: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 GEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011100/132/zr_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Canadian gives us sleet and mixed precip, think that's why we see the lower amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 Wow. I was honestly thinking a couple days ago that these ice totals were just fluke runs, but they have been consistent. Really hope they tone back in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 GEM increased ice amounts in N. IL and WI as well: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011100/150/zr_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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