February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Here it's a little over 22" on the season so far. I'm not sure what this particular location averages, but YYJ is up to 19.4" and they average 17.2". I've noticed that this area and much of Victoria proper can get much more snow than YYJ going into and during significant Arctic outflow events whereas the airport tends to get more in transitional situations where a cool pool of air gets caught up against the hills before transitioning to rain.

I thought Victoria averaged closer to 10 inches? Isn't the airport like 60 feet in elevation?

[Jesse]

It's quite possible that that ends up being the coldest shot we see. Blocking gets pretty chopped up in the long range.

 

On this one run, yes.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I thought Victoria averaged closer to 10 inches? Isn't the airport like 60 feet in elevation?

 

I think Victoria harbor averages around 10"; the airport is about 60ft up and 15 miles north. There are a lot of micro-climates around here and snowfall increases quite a bit as you go north of the Downtown-Oak Bay area.

[ShawniganLake]

I thought Victoria averaged closer to 10 inches? Isn't the airport like 60 feet in elevation?

Yes 20m elevation.

I believe the airports' average dropped to 15.6" in the 1981-2010 normals. Was 17.2" previously. I'm not sure if there is data for a station closer to the city. But I would guess downtown would average closer to 10".

[ShawniganLake]

On this one run, yes.

Obviously we will have to see where it goes, but I haven't really liked the progression on the past couple GFS runs. 18z GEFS 500mb anomalies looked a little less solid with the blocking in the long range. Of course in early February, the models looked totally lost until almost 72hrs out.

[Perturbed Member]

Ummm, what?

Easy there.

[Bryant]

00z gfs says "go home 18z, you're drunk"

Did it trend east?

[Guest Sounder]

Where is this idea that Portland has had all the snow this winter even coming from? The early February action for you guys evened things out pretty well.

 

I am certain you have seen far more snow than me this winter.

Really? Downtown Portland had over a foot that stayed on the ground for a week after, and downtown Seattle had 2" that completely melted within 24 hours.

 

Spare me. You're more out of touch with reality than Trump.

 

PS. I noticed some buds getting ready to blossom on the trees today! Can't wait for summer!!! Hopefully I get to test out my new air conditioning A LOT!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yes 20m elevation.

I believe the airports' average dropped to 15.6" in the 1981-2010 normals. Was 17.2" previously. I'm not sure if there is data for a station closer to the city. But I would guess downtown would average closer to 10".

 

Yeah, it looks like the 1981-2010 normal dropped a bit over an inch at YYJ. It's too bad there aren't any stations with reasonable climate data for the downtown area. The Victoria Francis Park station is the closest I could find with more recent data, it averaged about 17.7" in the 1981-2010 norms. That might be somewhat representative of the seasonal averages in this part of Saanich, which is about 4 miles southeast of there but about 60~80ft higher. The downtown totals would still be quite a bit lower due to its proximity to the ocean and low elevation.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1445-mid-late-fall-early-winter-2016-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=221340

[Jesse]

Really? Downtown Portland had over a foot that stayed on the ground for a week after, and downtown Seattle had 2" that completely melted within 24 hours.

 

Spare me. You're more out of touch with reality than Trump.

 

PS. I noticed some buds getting ready to blossom on the trees today! Can't wait for summer!!! Hopefully I get to test out my new air conditioning A LOT!

I didn't realize we were directly comparing the downtown areas only.

 

Speaking regionally, NW Oregon/SW Washington and the Puget Sound area are now pretty close in regard to seasonal snow totals.

[Timmy Supercell]

4" of snow this morning in Klamath Falls. This started at 5am based on KLMT observations. I took the measurement at 7:45.

 

A moment ago there were giant flakes but now falling much lighter again.

 

http://i.imgur.com/RY2CDvx.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/2kuNus7.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/MZ6pXlF.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/iX8Nwsy.jpg

[Trainwreck]

Snowed about an inch overnight in Redmond. Temp barely made it to freezing. Next week looks interesting with more white stuff and perhaps it sticking around.

[ShawniganLake]

The blocking in the long range on the GFS looks much better on the 12Z.

[MossMan]

Nice tankage.

[Jesse]

Nice tankage.

Looks like you'll be needing to charge your phone in 6-8 hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice tankage.

Definitely. The euro ensembles drop to -3 as well.

 

[HighlandExperience]

WRF shows potential for a little snow over central sound next week.

 

Not a lot. liking our chances going into end of Feb into early March.

[HighlandExperience]

I should add the GEM looks potentially snowy last week of Feb for Puget Sound.. =)

[Kayla]

I didn't realize we were directly comparing the downtown areas only.

 

Speaking regionally, NW Oregon/SW Washington and the Puget Sound area are now pretty close in regard to seasonal snow totals.

 

To his point - I don't think any areas within 10-15 min of downtown Seattle received widespread 15-18" of snowfall that stuck around for a week. East Portland was slammed with over a foot as was downtown. People also forget that most of the West Hills are are also within Portland City limits. 

 

Speaking on a metro standpoint, there really is no comparison between the January 11th system for the PDX area and the Feb event in SEA.

[snow_wizard]

I am really getting excited about our prospects for a long and perhaps deep cold snap beginning later this week.  The current ensemble mean keeps 850s below -5 for an insane length of time.  On the 12z a number of members (including the operational) get into ridiculous cold territory.  This could be one of the all time great late winter cold waves.  Should be fun to see where it goes.

[BLI snowman]

I am really getting excited about our prospects for a long and perhaps deep cold snap beginning later this week. The current ensemble mean keeps 850s below -5 for an insane length of time. On the 12z a number of members (including the operational) get into ridiculous cold territory. This could be one of the all time great late winter cold waves. Should be fun to see where it goes.

Looks like any legit arctic air will have to wait until March, our prospects look very slim the next 10 days.

[Karl Bonner]

I am really getting excited about our prospects for a long and perhaps deep cold snap beginning later this week.  The current ensemble mean keeps 850s below -5 for an insane length of time.  On the 12z a number of members (including the operational) get into ridiculous cold territory.  This could be one of the all time great late winter cold waves.  Should be fun to see where it goes.

 

Can I have a peek at the ensemble chart?  o.O

[ShawniganLake]

[snow_wizard]

Can I have a peek at the ensemble chart?  o.O

Here is the one for Seattle.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

Looks like any legit arctic air will have to wait until March, our prospects look very slim the next 10 days.

Hard to say. The ECMWF has wanted to bring an Arctic front through very late this month.

[snow_wizard]

This blocking is about as robust as I've ever seen.  The area of major positive height anoms is enormous!

 

 

[Jesse]

To his point - I don't think any areas within 10-15 min of downtown Seattle received widespread 15-18" of snowfall that stuck around for a week. East Portland was slammed with over a foot as was downtown. People also forget that most of the West Hills are are also within Portland City limits.

 

Speaking on a metro standpoint, there really is no comparison between the January 11th system for the PDX area and the Feb event in SEA.

True, I guess I'm just thinking about raw totals and not taking duration into account.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty sure that was sarcasm

 

Yep. That Jan 10th event made the winter for us and anything else is just a bonus. Even though the event down here was more impressive than the Feb event for most up north, I'm glad things are at least more even now. The winter ranges from good to epic for basically every major area in the lowlands now. 

 

I'd still love to see a small event where both PDX and SEA score at the same time, seems quite hard to make that happen. 

[Perturbed Member]

To his point - I don't think any areas within 10-15 min of downtown Seattle received widespread 15-18" of snowfall that stuck around for a week. East Portland was slammed with over a foot as was downtown. People also forget that most of the West Hills are are also within Portland City limits. 

 

Speaking on a metro standpoint, there really is no comparison between the January 11th system for the PDX area and the Feb event in SEA.

 

 

Good points, didn't you get over 20 inches from that event? The west hills really killed it with that storm. 

[MossMan]

IMG_0558.PNG

Wow look at that duration!

[Trainwreck]

Wow look at that duration!

Only problem is when it gets this late in the season for it to be memorable I would think the 850's would need to be at minimum -8 or 9.

[ShawniganLake]

Long range Euro is pretty disappointing. 

[Phil]

Walker Cell doesn't want to budge from its Niña-modoki state.

 

Unless the WPAC warm pool collapses over the next few months and/or the IO system reverses phase, it's going to be a chillier than average Spring in the northwest. Almost the complete opposite boreal spring system state relative to last year, if that holds.

[Kayla]

Good points, didn't you get over 20 inches from that event? The west hills really killed it with that storm. 

 

Yeah I ended up with 20" in just over 12 hours and we were still only 12 minutes (with no traffic) to Pioneer Square in downtown Portland. So definitely fair to say Portland metro area received "up to 20" storm total.

 

Snowing heavily here in Bozeman today yet I'm reminiscing and still in such awe of that storm. Could be another 20 years or more before Portland proper sees another storm like that and I was fortunate to be in the sweet spot throughout the event.

[Front Ranger]

Long range Euro is pretty disappointing. 

 

Yeah, not surprisingly, the Euro has started watering down the cold temps, both for this coming week and following.

 

Could still get pretty cold and/or snowy, but as others have pointed out, it gets increasingly rare from a historical perspective from here on out.

[Front Ranger]

March 1960 > February 2011

 

Of course. Was just saying that Feb 2011 was the closest to achieving sub-freezing highs at PDX that late since 1960.

[Jesse]

Walker Cell doesn't want to budge from its Niña-modoki state.

 

Unless the WPAC warm pool collapses over the next few months and/or the IO system reverses phase, it's going to be a chillier than average Spring in the northwest. Almost the complete opposite boreal spring system state relative to last year, if that holds.

Best news I've heard all day!

[Phil]

Yeah I ended up with 20" in just over 12 hours and we were still only 12 minutes (with no traffic) to Pioneer Square in downtown Portland. So definitely fair to say Portland metro area received "up to 20" storm total.

 

Snowing heavily here in Bozeman today yet I'm reminiscing and still in such awe of that storm. Could be another 20 years or more before Portland proper sees another storm like that and I was fortunate to be in the sweet spot throughout the event.

The big ones come in bunches. So do the losers.

[Front Ranger]

Holy crap! So, many of the EPS members, in addition to the current 18z GFS, develop extremely cold air over NW Canada in early March, with 850mb temperatures between -40C and -50C. Verbatim, this would be record smashing for that area this late.

 

Not saying it'll verify, but that cold, "dead" air is directly resultant from the dismemberment of the PV that's currently holding it in, and if the SSW destroys it, someone is going to get very cold, most likely somewhere in Eurasia.

 

First the PV got decapitated, now dismembered. 

 

You have a flair for violent imagery.