February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[weatherfan2012]

South Texas is already experiencing 100F+ temperatures.

This summer is gonna suuuuuck.

holy crap on those 100+ temperatures in late febuary in texas tottely out of wrack winter this year man.

[Lisa0527]

Just wondering why the GFS and GFS-Parallel look so completely different for next weekend. GFS-PARA looks much colder and snowier for March4/5.

[MossMan]

*DISCLAMER* for everyone that freaks out when I ask this... so turn away from your computer/laptop/tablet/phone if you hate me asking how the models look...

 

But how does the EURO look? The public EURO maps are quite vague... to me anyway. 

[ShawniganLake]

[HighlandExperience]

IMG_0580.PNG

Im liking the fact that the Euro has been consistent in showing 1-4 inches of snow over King County.

[Bryant]

*DISCLAMER* for everyone that freaks out when I ask this... so turn away from your computer/laptop/tablet/phone if you hate me asking how the models look...

 

But how does the EURO look? The public EURO maps are quite vague... to me anyway.

Woah there... you looked at the Euro all on your own?!

[Timmy]

Snow globe stuff out there, second afternoon in a row. Not more than a dusting but models have been trending more bullish for up here, looks like 5-9" through the weekend, will likely get melting in between there. Truthfully I'm okay with that after the winter we have had.

[MossMan]

Woah there... you looked at the Euro all on your own?!

Yeah 24hr increments of vagueness. I always look at the models when I am at my work computer, just at home i'm too lazy to fire up the laptop and too blind to squint at my phone. 

[HighlandExperience]

18z gives mossman decent totals this weekend . I don't like how far offshore it is with the Friday system though. Thankfully just the 18z

[Brennan]

Drive along south lake whatcom this morning

[luminen]

Sunny all day here with barely any clouds until later afternoon. It was so nice. I can't wait till summer here which is much nicer than the Willamette Valley's too hot summers.

[Dave]

Sunny all day here with barely any clouds until later afternoon. It was so nice. I can't wait till summer here which is much nicer than the Willamette Valley's too hot summers.

It's not always too hot.  The last few years have been quite warm, however.

 

Vancouver summers are far too chilly for my taste.  I like to be able to swim in the rivers and lakes for a couple of months per year.  Also, Septembers and the first week or two of October are often perfect.

[FroYoBro]

It's not always too hot.  The last few years have been quite warm, however.

 

Vancouver summers are far too chilly for my taste.  I like to be able to swim in the rivers and lakes for a couple of months per year.  Also, Septembers and the first week or two of October are often perfect.

 

I agree 100%. The summer is one of the best parts of living in this area. I don't think I would be able to handle the cooler summers up in Washington and B.C. 

[Jesse]

Sunny all day here with barely any clouds until later afternoon. It was so nice. I can't wait till summer here which is much nicer than the Willamette Valley's too hot summers.

Hopefully you guys can send some of your summer pleasantness down our way again this year.

[Trainwreck]

Flurries all day here. Plus lots of graupel. I'm sure Dare Duck can concur. I'm ready for spring and summer now. 60 and partly cloudy sounds really nice about now along with maybe a rumble of thunder from a cold core t storm. May next winter be as sweet as this one was but let's start the "warmer" season now please.

[FroYoBro]

Down to 35 here. Hoping to see some wet snow falling for at least a few minutes tomorrow morning. 

[BLI snowman]

Down to 35 here. Hoping to see some wet snow falling for at least a few minutes tomorrow morning. 

 

Could even be a few hours 

[FroYoBro]

Could even be a few hours 

       

[luminen]

It's not always too hot.  The last few years have been quite warm, however.

 

Vancouver summers are far too chilly for my taste.  I like to be able to swim in the rivers and lakes for a couple of months per year.  Also, Septembers and the first week or two of October are often perfect.

 

By Vancouver do you mean YVR? The immediate coastline gets a seabreeze most of the time so it's chilly in June and early July. Mid July to late August is usually okay there though. But, in Burnaby or North Vancouver it's noticeably warmer throughout summer so it never really feels chilly here.

 

I'll always remember the summer heat in the Willamette Valley/western Oregon. I include "western Oregon" because I just happened to be in Roseburg during the height of a heatwave when it hit 108F. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS continues to look nice for Sunday. A good part of the "screw zone" from Seattle - South Bellingham looks to be in a prime spot to get dumped on.

 

Should be good for some scattered snow showers tomorrow as well.

[HighlandExperience]

The 0z GFS continues to look nice for Sunday. A good part of the "screw zone" from Seattle - South Bellingham looks to be in a prime spot to get dumped on.

 

Should be good for some scattered snow showers tomorrow as well.

 

I thought the GEM looked good as well for Sunday. Would be nice if the Friday low was not so far off shore. 

[stuffradio]

By Vancouver do you mean YVR? The immediate coastline gets a seabreeze most of the time so it's chilly in June and early July. Mid July to late August is usually okay there though. But, in Burnaby or North Vancouver it's noticeably warmer throughout summer so it never really feels chilly here.

 

I'll always remember the summer heat in the Willamette Valley/western Oregon. I include "western Oregon" because I just happened to be in Roseburg during the height of a heatwave when it hit 108F. 

I'm pretty sure he means the fake Vancouver, WA.

[Jbolin]

Starting to see some showers develop north of YVR with ULL beginning to move SE'wd 

[Jesse]

I'm pretty sure he means the fake Vancouver, WA.

You mean the oldest city in the NW?

 

You guys should have stayed New Westminster.

[BLI snowman]

I'm pretty sure he means the fake Vancouver, WA.

 

1857 vs. 1886, bro

[Dave]

By Vancouver do you mean YVR? The immediate coastline gets a seabreeze most of the time so it's chilly in June and early July. Mid July to late August is usually okay there though. But, in Burnaby or North Vancouver it's noticeably warmer throughout summer so it never really feels chilly here.

 

I'll always remember the summer heat in the Willamette Valley/western Oregon. I include "western Oregon" because I just happened to be in Roseburg during the height of a heatwave when it hit 108F. 

I just went with what wikipedia said (yes, sloppy and lazy).  It said the max average temp was 72f during the summer.  I have no idea if that applies to the majority of the metro area.  FWIW, I've been to the Vancouver area on 3 different occasions during the summer and it was nice and warm enough.  72 is nice, but not high enough for the maximum summer average.  That is too short a window during the day for me to enjoy summer activities.

[Jesse]

Already clouding up down here. Could keep temps from dropping as much by sunrise.

[MikeInEverett]

Looks like a bit of weak convergence setting up here. 34 with hail at the moment.

[Jbolin]

Already clouding up down here. Could keep temps from dropping as much by sunrise.

But you hate cold

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I thought the GEM looked good as well for Sunday. Would be nice if the Friday low was not so far off shore. 

 

Yeah, though I'm not a fan of the last few GEM runs. The morning run absorbed the northern low into a southern low rapidly as it entered the region, tonight's is a bit better in that it no longer shows that southern low dominating but is still tracks a bit too far offshore for my liking. The GFS has been the most consistent since it re-latched onto the Sunday system, we'll see if that holds.

[BLI snowman]

Already clouding up down here. Could keep temps from dropping as much by sunrise.

 

Not gonna matter too much. Column will support 32-33 degree stuff at the start either way.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah, though I'm not a fan of the last few GEM runs. The morning run absorbed the northern low into a southern low rapidly as it entered the region, tonight's is a bit better in that it no longer shows that southern low dominating but is still tracks a bit too far offshore for my liking. The GFS has been the most consistent since it re-latched onto the Sunday system, we'll see if that holds.

 

Correction, it looks like the 0z GEM still has the low absorbed by a southern low, just in this run the southern low is weaker and it gets absorbed later. I believe the 12z ECMWF shows something similar; the snowfall potential is much better if we can avoid that situation

[DareDuck]

Flurries all day here. Plus lots of graupel. I'm sure Dare Duck can concur. I'm ready for spring and summer now. 60 and partly cloudy sounds really nice about now along with maybe a rumble of thunder from a cold core t storm. May next winter be as sweet as this one was but let's start the "warmer" season now please.

It was actually sunny but chilly most of the day in Bend. I saw those graupel/snow showers off to the north, east, and south this afternoon. Looked pretty cool with the sun shining against the shafts.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF sure shows the effects of diurnal warming at this time of year.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017022400/images_d3/wa_slp.63.0000.gif

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017022400/images_d3/wa_slp.71.0000.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF looks good at a high level, it's joined the GFS camp in not being in a rush to draw our Sunday system south. The trough looks robust and the low is nice and close to the coast.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[luminen]

Heavy snow falling about 15 mins ago and have already a half inch accumulation.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Heavy snow falling about 15 mins ago and have already a half inch accumulation.

 

The radar looks nice up that way this evening.

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

[Brennan]

Everybody is gone. Wouldn't surprise me if traffic doesn't pick up on here until early next fall, even if we do have a snow event. The majority of our posters have been satiated with snow this wintet. The few of us that have not, remain.