February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Pipelines for everyone.

Not if progressive blocking sets up!!!

[snow_wizard]

This doesn't sound too bad. From latest AFD:

 

Saturday night into Sunday, another low pressure system will move

southeastward through the coastal waters and down the Washington

coast. Precipitation amounts will be higher with this system than

with the system today, but temperatures will be slightly warmer.

In heavier showers, snow levels will fall to 500 feet or less late

Saturday night and Sunday morning, affecting the higher hills.

Areas most likely to see snow accumulations at this point look to

be the higher hills north and east of Seattle, including in the

north interior and east Puget Sound lowlands. This system is worth

watching since it has the potential for more widespread snowfall

accumulations of 2 or 3 inches if model solutions change

slightly.

One more good solid snowfall would make me feel decent about this winter. Missing out on the January action still stings though. I'll be interested to see where this winter ends up on my winter rating system. I'll post exactly what that's all about after this month is over.

[snow_wizard]

Not if progressive blocking sets up!!!

See...progressive is a bad thing. Jesse will agree with that in this case.

[James Jones]

Unreal warmth across the Midwest and East Coast today, tons of places broke their all-time February records. 77 in Cleveland, 76 in Pittsburgh, 73 in Boston. Meanwhile I just had a snow/rain shower roll through.

[ShawniganLake]

Special weather statements issued for southern BC. Forecast calls for 4-6" here locally for Saturday night.

[snow_wizard]

Special weather statements issued for southern BC. Forecast calls for 4-6" here locally for Saturday night.

This thing has some decent potential.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile tonight is looking likely to be the coldest one from this cold snap. Some low to mid 20s could be possible.

[ShawniganLake]

38/27 here today. With 3/4" of snow this morning. Decently chilly.

[MossMan]

Down to 34 after a high of 41. I'm worried about all this talk about a warmer air mass for the next round of fun... seemed fairly borderline with this current one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A nice 38/30 here today. Currently 33 with light snow. It has been snowing since about 2pm, but just a light dusting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4th day in a row with at least a dusting.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 34 after a high of 41. I'm worried about all this talk about a warmer air mass for the next round of fun... seemed fairly borderline with this current one.

Pretty hard to ignore the NE surface pressure gradient being depicted though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE will actually end up at or below normal on the month.

 

Only 0.03" of precip away from the monthly record.

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty hard to ignore the NE surface pressure gradient being depicted though.

 

Hope so. All eyes on 00z. If we got 2-4 inches in the Puget Sound area it would really change my opinion of this winter. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Special weather statements issued for southern BC. Forecast calls for 4-6" here locally for Saturday night.

 

The prospects it paints for Victoria are pretty dismal, maybe a trace at higher elevations away from the water. They completely missed the 6"+ of snow that fell around Victoria on Feb 6, so at least there's that. I hope we can avoid another situation where the deformation band gets caught up between Mill Bay and Nanaimo, leaving Victoria on the sloppy margins until it dissipates. Snowfall is going to depend a lot on precipitation rates. The GFS has been pretty good, showing a heavy band of precipitation developing further south at a pretty optimal time of the day with outflow, also looks great for the Puget Sound area. However, small differences in the track of the low will have a huge impact on local totals.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Down to 34 after a high of 41. I'm worried about all this talk about a warmer air mass for the next round of fun... seemed fairly borderline with this current one.

 

There should be a lot more moisture at play and a much better tracking low coming through in the morning hours, it has way more potential than anything that was predicted for today.

[umadbro]

I give this winter an A+ about a month ago.

[Jesse]

Hope so. All eyes on 00z. If we got 2-4 inches in the Puget Sound area it would really change my opinion of this winter.

2-4" inches is all it would take to re-write the hellish last 2.5 months of abject disappointment and wasted opportunities?

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Score?!

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

[Phil]

Unreal warmth across the Midwest and East Coast today, tons of places broke their all-time February records. 77 in Cleveland, 76 in Pittsburgh, 73 in Boston. Meanwhile I just had a snow/rain shower roll through.

It's unbelievable. Racking up the 70+ days here. Could even see some severe weather here tomorrow afternoon.

 

Followed by snow in March? Would fit the trend in recent winters for our best snows to fall in March/April. Last year was an exception to that, though.

[snow_wizard]

I'm liking the dip showing up around the 28th now. The valley is getting deeper and more broad. Still showing the cold shot the middle of next week also.

[MossMan]

2-4" inches is all it would take to re-write the hellish last 2.5 months of abject disappointment and wasted opportunities?

8"+ at my house is what it would take for me to get the sour taste of this winter out of my mouth.

[snow_wizard]

I give this winter an A+ about a month ago.

 

Too high.  That gives no slot for winters like 1949-50 or 1968-69.

[snow_wizard]

One record I have a shot at for my personal records is highest number of freezing low temps for Dec - Feb for this century.  Currently at 54 and the record is 57 from 2008-09.  I'm pretty certain I have already achieved lowest number of 50+ max temps and highest number of sub 40 max temps.

[umadbro]

Too high. That gives no slot for winters like 1949-50 or 1968-69.

I wasn't around those years. So I really don't care what happened. I have my own grading scale. This winter is an A+.

 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder my friend.

 

My grading scale isn't only based on snow.

[snow_wizard]

8"+ at my house is what it would take for me to get the sour taste of this winter out of my mouth.

 

Yeah...I think I'll look at this winter as a very positive step in the right direction.  I have my eyes on 2018-19.  Everything should be aligned for wickedness on that one.  Next winter is kind of a wildcard.  The context will be similar to 2006-07 so it might be decent.

[snow_wizard]

I wasn't around those years. So I really don't care what happened. I have my own grading scale. This winter is an A+.

 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder my friend.

 

I'm saying what if we have another winter like 1949-50?  You will have to grade it like A++ or something.

[HighlandExperience]

I thought 2008 was an amazing winter. Not sure how this winter could surpass that.

[umadbro]

I'm saying what if we have another winter like 1949-50? You will have to grade it like A++ or something.

I'll cross that bridge when/if we get to it. I'm still saying A+.

[umadbro]

I thought 2008 was an amazing winter. Not sure how this winter could surpass that.

2008 Was an A+

[snow_wizard]

I thought 2008 was an amazing winter. Not sure how this winter could surpass that.

 

Probably won't here.  This one did have some large lakes freeze over so it gets special points for that.  Missing the snow going into the long January cold wave really hurt this one for us.

[MossMan]

Yeah...I think I'll look at this winter as a very positive step in the right direction. I have my eyes on 2018-19. Everything should be aligned for wickedness on that one. Next winter is kind of a wildcard. The context will be similar to 2006-07 so it might be decent.

I would be thrilled with a similar winter to 06-07, that one blew this winter out of the water up in my area. One of my top 5 winters for sure!

[seattleweatherguy]

I give this winter a B plus. We missed major chances at good snow, but nice winter overall so far.

[HighlandExperience]

WRF looks snowier

[HighlandExperience]

The 4km WRF puts about 4 inches over Northern King County.

[Jesse]

8"+ at my house is what it would take for me to get the sour taste of this winter out of my mouth.

 

8" of sun and warmth?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clear skies and 29 right now. Beautiful night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF total snowfall for Oregon. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow72.84.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is certainly more bullish with snow than previous runs. Nice to see. It continues to indicate 925mb temps will be colder over Central Puget Sound than much of the remainder of the lowlands. In fact it takes 925s below -4 Monday morning. Pretty interesting!