February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Would not be surprised to see 12 inches in the east puget sound lowlands and 15 to 20 around hood canal by Tuesday am.

[seattleweatherguy]

If you're not getting snow already you should very soon.

 

How soon like evening

[MossMan]

This is looking like a major widespread event. Going to be heavy wet snow and lots 9f power out.

Hope I'm not too far north for this one.

[snow_wizard]

Short term update from NWS:

 

Short Term Forecast

National Weather Service Seattle WA

849 AM PST Sun Feb 5 2017

 

WAZ504-555-051930-

Southwest Interior-East Puget Sound Lowlands-

Including the cities of...Olympia...Lacey...Tumwater...

Covington-Sawyer-w...Maple Valley...Monroe...Prairie Ridge...

Enumclaw...Bonney Lake...Woodinville

849 AM PST Sun Feb 5 2017

 

.NOW...A little light snow will fall through late this morning

over the southwest interior and the east Puget Sound lowlands.

Less than an inch of snow may accumulate for a couple of hours

through late morning before melting.

Wouldn't shock me to see it snow right through the day. The column is already colder than expected for this early. The key in a case like this is to keep it going steadily.

[seattleweatherguy]

Mainly this evening/overnight.

After 5 pm

[TT-SEA]

Heavy wet snow here...

 

[snow_wizard]

How soon like evening

Could be an hour or less.

[MossMan]

I'm sorry but I think the NWS is being overly conservative. The zone forecast for EPSL is only calling for up to one inch tonight. I just do not see how that happens unless they are going solely off the HRRR.

That maga botched windstorm last fall really created some changes there.

[FroYoBro]

Down to 34 at Astoria!

[snow_wizard]

I'm sorry but I think the NWS is being overly conservative to the point it's absurd. The zone forecast for EPSL is only calling for up to one inch tonight. I just do not see how that happens unless they are going solely off the HRRR.

As I was saying last night I think some boss there is telling them to keep the lid on this. They must have taken some bad heat for the busted snow forecasts earlier in the winter. What a shame.

[TT-SEA]

As I was saying last night I think some boss there is telling them to keep the lid on this. They must have taken some bad heat for the busted snow forecasts earlier in the winter. What a shame.

 

 

Windstorm debacle.   

[bainbridgekid]

As I was saying last night I think some boss there is telling them to keep the lid on this. They must have taken some bad heat for the busted snow forecasts earlier in the winter. What a shame.

This doesn't make much sense though. They've done a pretty good job with snow forecasts this Winter. Certainly better than Portland.

 

Though to be fair they've had a lot more of that to deal with. 

 

I do think they are still reeling from the windstorm fail though.

[FroYoBro]

Sounds like snow is now mixing in on top of the hills around town and the eastern side of the metro area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tracking rainfall totals right now. 1.31" since midnight!

[Phil]

Congrats guys! I like what I'm seeing on the latest mesoanalysis.

 

Someone in the lowlands will score 8-12" or more.

[MossMan]

Only thing that would have made this day more exciting and fun would have been if the Seahawks were playing in the Super Bowl!

[HighlandExperience]

Congrats guys! I like what I'm seeing on the latest mesoanalysis.

 

Someone in the lowlands will score 8-12" or more.

 

You have been a big help on this one (thanks for the wxbell maps). It is nice that people who don't live in your area can be happy for you. 

[snow_wizard]

The forecast discussion this morning was more interesting at least.

[Deweydog]

Getting pretty milky out there.

[crf450ish]

All snow here in Puyallup.

Hope everyone gets in on the action.

 

In the voice of Vader, from the ending scene of Star Wars episode iv

 

" I HAVE YOU NOW!"

[snow_wizard]

This doesn't make much sense though. They've done a pretty good job with snow forecasts this Winter. Certainly better than Portland.

 

Though to be fair they've had a lot more of that to deal with. 

 

I do think they are still reeling from the windstorm fail though.

They had a couple of times they were going for significant snowfall and it didn't verify in most places either due to cold air being too slow to arrive or precip not arriving.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS has been trending much cooler. 

[TT-SEA]

Everyone is so concerned about what the NWS is saying.   We all have access to the same information.   Everyone on here can make up their own mind based on conditions and model data.   Who cares if the NWS says all rain or 2 feet of snow?   They have been wrong as often as anyone else.    Does their opinion matter that much?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Everyone is so concerned about what the NWS is saying.   We all have access to the same information.   Everyone on here can make up their own mind based on conditions and model data.   Who cares if the NWS says all rain or 2 feet of snow?   They have been wrong as often as anyone else.    Does their opinion matter that much?

There are some mets in there that have massive experience with pacific nw snow storms. Sometimes that is better than a model.

[TT-SEA]

What matters is that most local mets don't pull the trigger until NWS pulls the trigger, which means 95% of the public has no idea this could be a 4-6 inch or more event.

 

While your argument works for people on this board, it doesn't for most of public.

 

 

Again... who cares what the public knows?   They will find out soon enough.    

[Perturbed Member]

MM5

 

 

Monday snow for Puget Sound

 

[TT-SEA]

There are some mets in there that have massive experience with pacific nw snow storms. Sometimes that is better than a model.

 

 

So do most of us.  

[Guest Sounder]

Everyone is so concerned about what the NWS is saying. We all have access to the same information. Everyone on here can make up their own mind based on conditions and model data. Who cares if the NWS says all rain or 2 feet of snow? They have been wrong as often as anyone else. Does their opinion matter that much?

Given how basically the entire public bases weather related decision making on NWS forecasts (either directly or through local media), it does matter. I've already had many eyes rolled at me this weekend when mentioning the chance of snow, because no one expects what's coming thanks to the extremely conservative forecast they have out right now. The city gets plows and road clearing equipment ready in advance, schools start planning for possible snow days, real actions occur when based off NWS forecasts.

 

Kind of hard not to get frustrated when you mention to a non-weenie what might be coming and they respond condescendingly with a copy/paste of the NWS forecast to prove you wrong.

[The Swamp]

I believe the event in the swamp is over for now. Temp fell three degrees and we switched to solid rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I believe the event in the swamp is over for now. Temp fell three degrees and we switched to solid rain.

ditto... It was fun. 

[snow_wizard]

I believe the event in the swamp is over for now. Temp fell three degrees and we switched to solid rain.

Defying the laws of physics it seems.

[snow_wizard]

Still snow here...we'll see if that remains the case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 9:30 I am on pace for 3.49" of precip today.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW 15z HRRR shows rain until 10PM tonight, when it finally switches over to snow.

That model is out to lunch right now.

[snow_wizard]

As of 9:30 I am on pace for 3.49" of precip today.

Wow!

[Deweydog]

As of 9:30 I am on pace for 3.49" of precip today.

In Washington D.C. that would be considered barely sprinkling.

[Bham_Guy]

Really coming down again up here for the past 20 minutes or so.

[GHweatherChris]

Light snow here.

 

Edit- now just drizzle.

[TT-SEA]

Given how basically the entire public bases weather related decision making on NWS forecasts (either directly or through local media), it does matter. I've already had many eyes rolled at me this weekend when mentioning the chance of snow, because no one expects what's coming thanks to the extremely conservative forecast they have out right now. The city gets plows and road clearing equipment ready in advance, schools start planning for possible snow days, real actions occur when based off NWS forecasts.

 

Kind of hard not to get frustrated when you mention to a non-weenie what might be coming and they respond condescendingly with a copy/paste of the NWS forecast to prove you wrong.

 

Oh well... people will always be skeptical.  They are skeptical of sunny days too.   Better than hyping and nothing much happens.   The city can take care of itself... they are in communication with the NWS in private and make up their own mind on what to do.   

[TT-SEA]

Really coming down again up here for the past 20 minutes or so.

 

Text from my mom saying it was dumping snow on the north side of Lake Whatcom.   

 

Barkley cameras show it as well.