February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Why did it snow in Astoria but not Portland? Was it because the low went north of Portland?

 

No, but an occluded front did stall just to the NW of Portland which put the Portland metro in a bubble of warmer air aloft.

 

Portland was sort of uniquely screwed in that they were on the cold side of the low and had favorable low level dynamics all day long for snow but the mid levels were a degree or two too warm the entire time. Trajectory of the low was just all wrong for us.

[snow_wizard]

I think a major arctic blast is very unlikely though there are late Feb 2011 March 1989 type exceptions.

You would be surprised how many legit blasts there have been in late Feb / early March. That window seems to really perform for some reason...especially early March.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, making it into work wasn't going to happen this morning. And I hate missing work unplanned. Snow drifting over Hwy 9 and Hwy 546 seems to cut off Sumas from the rest of the county at least every 5-10 years. Last time was February 2014, but that was only for a few hours.

Very cool place to live. I seriously thought about moving there several years ago.

[BLI snowman]

You would be surprised how many legit blasts there have been in late Feb / early March. That window seems to really perform for some reason...especially early March.

 

1960 and 1962 were nice. Two in three years.

[Tenochtitlan]

The snow has basically stopped, with a bit over 5 inches on the ground. Hoping for more tomorrow morning but if not, this has been a lot of fun

[Bham_Guy]

Still dumping tiny flakes right now.

[Skagit Weather]

This storm has been pretty amazing in its extent. It seems that at the end of the winter I will be at the low end, if not at the bottom, of snow totals for members on here, but elsewhere it has been incredible. And anyways, maybe us low snow folk can get pity points going into next winter. Approaching six years since I've had more than 3" on the ground so a seventh shouldn't be too painful.

[snow_wizard]

1960 and 1962 were nice. Two in three years.

Nice event up here in 1971 also. Then of course you had 1951 and 1955. That's 5 in 20 years. Certainly some more recent ones also.

[Tenochtitlan]

started up again. I put a sheet of music outside to see how much will fall. The notes are already hard to see through the snow, wonder how long it will keep up for.

[snow_wizard]

This storm has been pretty amazing in its extent. It seems that at the end of the winter I will be at the low end, if not at the bottom, of snow totals for members on here, but elsewhere it has been incredible. And anyways, maybe us low snow folk can get pity points going into next winter. Approaching six years since I've had more than 3" on the ground so a seventh shouldn't be too painful.

I'm just shocked the Arlington to Mount Vernon zone has been so screwed. Before this I remember plenty of great events up that way. I think the big problem is we haven't had a nice Arctic front slide down the Puget Sound basin in so long now. This winter has been cold, but the cold waves have seeped in instead of blasting in.

[Tenochtitlan]

I'm just shocked the Arlington to Mount Vernon zone has been so screwed. Before this I remember plenty of great events up that way. I think the big problem is we haven't had a nice Arctic front slide down the Puget Sound basin in so long now. This winter has been cold, but the cold waves have seeped in instead of blasting in.

Yeah. I remember those Arctic fronts being so satisfying when I lived in Seattle. November 2006, December 2008, and November 2010 were my favorites.

 

One nice thing about them is they're usually easier to forecast than these marginal setups.

[snow_wizard]

Things are freezing up fast now. High water content snow that gets a chance to freeze up is very resistant to melting. It appears I had around 0.95" of water in the 7 inches that fell last night.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah. I remember those Arctic fronts being so satisfying when I lived in Seattle. November 2006, December 2008, and November 2010 were my favorites.

Aside from that situations like last night are the big snow makers here. Events like we had last night are hard to pull off in places like Mount Vernon because of blocking from the Olympics. It's kind of odd how little convergence zone snow there has been this winter now that I think about it. This winter has really been its own animal.

[Tenochtitlan]

Aside from that situations like last night are the big snow makers here. Events like we had last night are hard to pull off in places like Mount Vernon because of blocking from the Olympics. It's kind of odd how little convergence zone snow there has been this winter now that I think about it. This winter has really been its own animal.

Yeah...I thought there would be one today with the westerly flow. hmm.

 

Sometimes they can bring down the snow level really low in the spring, so there's still time for a good one to form. I remember April 20, 2008...that brought 8 inches to Everett. I lived near the UW, so was often just a couple miles south of them, which was frustrating.

[Brennan]

          I just drove from my place in North Bellingham out around Lake Whatcom to Highway 9, up 9 to Deming and back around to North Bellingham. I think it was probably close to 60 miles total, but it was quite the interesting journey. I'm half asleep now so I won't bother explaining much. Or maybe I will....

          The difference between the southwest part of lake whatcom and southeast part of lake whatcom were very different in just a couple of miles. It was 32 and slushy between the south part of sudden valley and the SE part of Lake Whatcom. Even the lightest bit of rain fell along that stretch. The stretch from SE lake whatcom through park road to highway 9 near Wickersham featured a 4 degree drop (32 to 28) as well and significantly snowier conditions (and on the ground) .

          The drive north from Wickersham to Deming featured a nice gradient as well. There was 8-9" of snow in Wickersham, and over 15" of snow just south of the Junction of Highway 9 and Mt Baker Highway (542). That stretch of highway 9 east of lake whatcom hangs onto precip extremely well. Snow totals slowly fell off from Deming to town, but wind picked up significantly west of Everson Goshon road.

          I've come to conclusion, snow with no wind is wayyyyyy better than snow with wind. Drifts are cool, but the 15" of snow North of Acme near Van Zandt looked amazing. Ok time for bed. I don't think we'll see much if any more snow tonight here in Bellingham. Hope I'm wrong! Why am I still awake. ZZZZZZzzzz

[Brennan]

That valley that highway 9 runs along south of Mt Baker Highway... Cold air must funnel down through there???

[Timmy Supercell]

A lot of snow falling this morning in Klamath Falls. Will take a measurement when I really wake up. Looks like about 6" now, been sticking since 10pm last night. Some big flakes falling.

[MossMan]

currently 29 with 1" of snow left.

[snow_wizard]

29 degrees here this morning. The snow is so hard you could hurt yourself on it.

 

Will be slow to melt now.

[snow_wizard]

currently 29 with 1" of snow left.

I've still got 4 or 5 here. The water content was so high it didn't melt too bad yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

29 degrees here this morning. The snow is so hard you could hurt yourself on it.

 

Will be slow to melt now.

 

The last snow here was so hard at the end that you could basically walk across the top without breaking through. 

 

With the dewpoint below freezing and hard snow there will be no melting today unless there is sun and then only in areas with direct sun exposure. 

[snow_wizard]

That valley that highway 9 runs along south of Mt Baker Highway... Cold air must funnel down through there???

Yes...I remember one night I was driving up to Bellingham to look at the snow and got broadsided by strong outflow north of Mount Vernon that almost had to shoot out of that valley.

[Timmy Supercell]

6.6" this morning in Klamath Falls, OR. This is my most February 1 day snowfall since 02/28/2012. Snow stopped just before 6am based on radar. Just yesterday there was almost nothing left in the yard for snow. Only a few patches of ice/snow remained before this started.

Seasonal total 48.50" now.

I hope the photos work. Tinypic wasn't accepting any files this morning so I created a Imgur account. Heard it was a good site.

http://i.imgur.com/HWZOLqO.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/Ogg9oBW.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/Yc4bDOF.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/aARH1gR.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/6y9G8bH.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

K-Falls got 6.6".

 

Score!

[TT-SEA]

Had a coating of snow last night... snow on the trees again but much better than the heavy, damaging stuff yesterday.    

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 with some light ZR here this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

 

I figure for Western WA as a whole this is certainly the snowiest February since 1990. It really hard to gauge because some localized areas had a lot in year like 1994, 1995, 2001, and 2011. For widespread large amounts with localized very heavy amounts I think this one beats all of those. Since 1950 I think 1956, 1985, and 1990 are probably the only ones equal or better than this.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It looks like the low level outflow has finally made it down the Puget Sound. I can see a lot more northerly wind measurements at the stations down there. The upper level wind has switched from SW to SE since last night and that seems to have kicked up a few more flurries but also warmed things up slightly (even under continuing low level outflow). Currently 30.5F with light snow flurries. I doubt there was much more than 1/4" accumulation with the lighter snow after 12pm last night but it's amazing how persistent the snow has been since the start of this event on Sunday night. Of course that's nothing compared with what was happening in the Fraser Valley.

[Timmy Supercell]

Sunrise almost did something but not quite.

 

http://i.imgur.com/fRmh44f.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

A very fine light snow falling and 28F here.

[ShawniganLake]

A winter storm watch has been issued for all of southern BC. 6z Gfs looked to hold onto the cold air a few hours longer over Vancouver island tomorrow night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunrise almost did something but not quite.

 

http://i.imgur.com/fRmh44f.jpg

Beautiful shot!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A winter storm watch has been issued for all of southern BC. 6z Gfs looked to hold onto the cold air a few hours longer over Vancouver island tomorrow night.

 

Tomorrow night sounds like a real mess. Also, I can't remember the last time EC issued a winter storm watch for this region.

[MossMan]

Wow the roads were glazed ice this morning, even I-5 was a little slick in places, also our lake house fared better than my house, still about 4" there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet snow falling here at work in Salem.

[Jesse]

Was pretty icy here earlier. I really like how the past two months have basically felt like unbroken winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just thinking about the February 2014 event versus this one (Disclaimer SW BC and extreme N. Whatcom County excluded). If I had to choose I would take the February 2014 every time. 6-15" snowfall totals with highs in the low 20s. Really a very very underrated event IMO. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the snow is finally done here, the outflow winds are kicking in a bit more and it's cooled down a little. I estimate there's been a little over 7" since it began Sunday night. A few more pictures from this morning:

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3921_zps2v8yhvpz.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3937_zpseqqangmk.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3948_zpsaikpbfcw.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3956_zpsitnp5elk.jpg

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3960_zpspnyg6b7d.jpg

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3961_zpswj3hrp7i.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Was pretty icy here earlier. I really like how the past two months have basically felt like unbroken winter.

Our climate must have been like this during the 1700s. I really wish every year had multiple snow chances like this. So much better than the last season.

[Deweydog]

I was just thinking about the February 2014 event versus this one (Disclaimer SW BC and extreme N. Whatcom County excluded). If I had to choose I would take the February 2014 every time. 6-15" snowfall totals with highs in the low 20s. Really a very very underrated event IMO.

Underrated by who?