March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dare say there was ensemble improvement with the 18z suite. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dare say there was ensemble improvement with the 18z suite. 

 

Though we are getting close to the time of year where ensemble improvement means a drying trend on the ensembles...

[Front Ranger]

Is this an either/or thing or is it possible for both a convergence zone to bring snow and a vort max to bring snow farther north?

 

It would mainly be either/or, as a vort max moving that far north would prevent a CZ from forming further south.

 

These scenarios are always tricky, as the exact track of the low can make a big difference in flow, interactions with the terrain, precip intensity, etc. 

[GHweatherChris]

Alot of shower activity off shore, once temps drop tonight during any clearing a quick inch can't be ruled out anywhere.

[TT-SEA]

Alot of shower activity off shore, once temps drop tonight during any clearing a quick inch can't be ruled out anywhere.

 

This is true... the air mass will be cold enough everywhere.

[TT-SEA]

What looked so promising on the coastal radar a couple hours ago does not look like much now... and there is still 2 hours of daylight left.

 

[HighlandExperience]

What looked so promising on the coastal radar a couple hours ago does not look like much now... and there is still 2 hours of daylight left.

 

 

YA that band was pathetic. 

[Front Ranger]

What looked so promising on the coastal radar a couple hours ago does not look like much now... and there is still 2 hours of daylight left.

 

 

The actual low was never tracking as fast as that band, anyway.

[FroYoBro]

The band looks pretty healthy down here.

 

Hopefully we will get some wet snowflakes by the end of it. 

[TT-SEA]

The actual low was never tracking as fast as that band, anyway.

 

The remains of the low are moving NE to the west of Seattle now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The band is holding together pretty well. Temp dropping, down to 33 now with some flurries.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's looking pretty dark down over the Juan de Fuca right now. I think the low is starting to reform down there now judging by the radar profile, it will be interesting to see how fast it heads for the exit.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4189_zpsev8d42pb.jpg

[Jesse]

I dare say there was ensemble improvement with the 18z suite.

I thought there was too. Surprising.

 

GFS and Euro/Gem really at odds right now. I'm guessing the GFS will trend towards the other two eventually.

[ShawniganLake]

It's looking pretty dark down over the Juan de Fuca right now. I think the low is starting to reform down there now judging by the radar profile, it will be interesting to see how fast it heads for the exit.

I had hoped to see things further NW than they are now. Victoria might catch the edge of it but looks like I will be hoping for a favourable shower to pop up.

 

EC is forecasting up to 6" in the lower mainland tonight, this after some areas got as much as 8" this morning.

[HighlandExperience]

I had hoped to see things further NW than they are now. Victoria might catch the edge of it but looks like I will be hoping for a favourable shower to pop up.

 

EC is forecasting up to 6" in the lower mainland tonight, this after some areas got as much as 8" this morning.

Doesn't look like Vancouver BC proper got much of anything

[Deweydog]

This band could be a 4-19-08 redux. If only the PDO was negative...

[snow_wizard]

Unbelievable we got almost no precip here today. Not sure how that happened. I'm seriously wondering if all of the potential we had last night through Tuesday morning will amount to nothing. At least the stuff later in the week looks much more impressive.

[van city]

Doesn't look like Vancouver BC proper got much of anything

From this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Doesn't look like Vancouver BC proper got much of anything

Downtown, no not a lot. The municipalities just to the east and with a couple hundred feet elevation saw 4-8".

[MossMan]

Snow just started, 37 and dropping rapidly.

[Dave]

Rain/snow mix down here.  37 degrees.  Good sign for tonight I should think.

[epiceast]

Airport recorded 3" this morning. A lot more than I did. Up to 57.2" for the water year.

[snow_wizard]

From this morning.

It just seems like you guys always score this winter. Probably a solid "A" winter for your area.

[snow_wizard]

Airport recorded 3" this morning. A lot more than I did. Up to 57.2" for the water year.

Are you tired of snow yet?

 

I thought Missoula looked pretty good for sustained cold / snow cover, but is not too over the top with the snow.

[HighlandExperience]

Unbelievable we got almost no precip here today. Not sure how that happened. I'm seriously wondering if all of the potential we had last night through Tuesday morning will amount to nothing. At least the stuff later in the week looks much more impressive.

It's been dry all day. Feels like nothing is going to happen

[Timmy Supercell]

Already creeping up to my March average snowfall, in almost no time. Why is it so easy to do this here? Makes me question this month's normal snow. But I have done the numbers myself... so it's legit I guess.

[HighlandExperience]

Just went outside and its snowing. I dont see much moisture though

[umadbro]

Temp dropped from 43 to 37 under that band. Good start to early tomorrow mornings potential. Had a brief burst of heavy snow at the end of it.

[snow_wizard]

Just went outside and its snowing. I dont see much moisture though

Yeah....I have no idea what happened today. Everything just dried up when it got close to us. At least we won't be blocked by the Olympics over the next 36 hours.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Nice band off of the incoming low here in Tanasbourne.  Too bad the whole thing is just rain.  If this thing would've held off until about 10-12 then we would've been in business.  Just warmed up way too much today.  Even the top of Cooper Mtn. was 44 today. 

 

If anything organized can move through overnight then we can get a quick inch.  Otherwise lets bring on spring.

[snow_wizard]

Already creeping up to my March average snowfall, in almost no time. Why is it so easy to do this here? Makes me question this month's normal snow. But I have done the numbers myself... so it's legit I guess.

Could be you live over 4000 feet in elevation.

[epiceast]

Are you tired of snow yet?

 

I thought Missoula looked pretty good for sustained cold / snow cover, but is not too over the top with the snow.

Nope, I am not Tim. Could definitely really use a lot more than 200-250" at the local hill though. Missoula is good for record breaking cold because it's a deep valley, but it's just a tad too far south to keep the snow consistently, there is a definitely a frequent storm track that goes 25-50 miles north of here. I mean it just often means a little rain and no snow destroying Chinook winds because the Bitterroot valley is oriented in a very N-S way, but it only means we have snow 60-80% of the days in meterological winter. Kalispell is probably best location to have 90%+ days with snow cover in Montana among towns. If you really want to get serious amounts move up to the foothills there like to Whitefish or Columbia Falls, and then you would clear 100" most years with no issue.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah....I have no idea what happened today. Everything just dried up when it got close to us. At least we won't be blocked by the Olympics over the next 36 hours.

You really need to spend more time with the ECMWF surface maps. Today would not have been a big surprise.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I had hoped to see things further NW than they are now. Victoria might catch the edge of it but looks like I will be hoping for a favourable shower to pop up.

 

EC is forecasting up to 6" in the lower mainland tonight, this after some areas got as much as 8" this morning.

 

If it had only formed about 10 miles north that band right now would be dumping on Victoria rather than over the Strait. It seems to be moving very slowly, probably pivoting around the low. Being under a persistent shower like that is about as good as it gets with these sort of systems. If it stalls out longer we may yet see some wrap around bands form, after that the best hope is the trail of showers that will be following the departing system into the morning.

[snow_wizard]

Nope, I am not Tim. Could definitely really use a lot more than 200-250" at the local hill though. Missoula is good for record breaking cold because it's a deep valley, but it's just a tad too far south to keep the snow consistently, there is a definitely a frequent storm track that goes 25-50 miles north of here. I mean it just often means a little rain and no snow destroying Chinook winds because the Bitterroot valley is oriented in a very N-S way, but it only means we have snow 60-80% of the days in meterological winter. Kalispell is probably best location to have 90%+ days with snow cover in Montana among towns. If you really want to get serious amounts move up to the foothills there like to Whitefish or Columbia Falls, and then you would clear 100" most years with no issue.

60% to 80% sounds fine to me.

[luminen]

From Burnaby around 3pm today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene and Corvallis look like they are going to get a lot of precip this evening. 

[Kayla]

Nope, I am not Tim. Could definitely really use a lot more than 200-250" at the local hill though. Missoula is good for record breaking cold because it's a deep valley, but it's just a tad too far south to keep the snow consistently, there is a definitely a frequent storm track that goes 25-50 miles north of here. I mean it just often means a little rain and no snow destroying Chinook winds because the Bitterroot valley is oriented in a very N-S way, but it only means we have snow 60-80% of the days in meterological winter. Kalispell is probably best location to have 90%+ days with snow cover in Montana among towns. If you really want to get serious amounts move up to the foothills there like to Whitefish or Columbia Falls, and then you would clear 100" most years with no issue.

 

Kalispell on average doesn't usually do all that much better but they had a good year this year. Here in Bozeman we had 1-3 feet of snow cover all winter and 67" of snowfall over meteorology winter. Of course March and April are some of our snowiest months as well and having the added elevation here (5,300') compared to Missoula/Kalispell really helps us as we head into the spring months.

 

Expecting 3-6" tonight and what looks like plenty more later this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhh.....

 

[epiceast]

Kalispell on average doesn't usually do all that much better but they had a good year this year. Here in Bozeman we had 1-3 feet of snow cover all winter and 67" of snowfall over meteorology winter. Of course March and April are some of our snowiest months as well and having the added elevation here (5,300') compared to Missoula/Kalispell really helps us as we head into the spring months.

 

Expecting 3-6" tonight and what looks like plenty more later this week.

It's been a 70"+ winter for Kalispell.

Bozeman gets chinook winds. I am guessing this is somewhat of an unusual winter for Bozeman too. While Bozeman gets higher snow #'s, it's drier snow so the SWE's aren't as good as they for Kalispell which really matters for longevity of the snow through February. December is obviously luck of the draw. I'm guessing Bozeman might have more snow cover in March just because it gets a lot more snow in March(snowy month) unlike Kalispell which gets the troughy showery pattern instead of the ULL's bozeman gets.