March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I think Tim wants his snow to melt!

 

So badly.

 

So much so that warm rain sounds downright lovely right now.   

 

Luckily there is plenty of that ahead.

[ShawniganLake]

Airport probably broke 5' about right now. Side roads are getting snow covered.

Nice!!! I think we hit 5' a couple days ago. Probably around 62 or 63" now.

[epiceast]

Nice!!! I think we hit 5' a couple days ago. Probably around 62 or 63" now.

Yea I'm hoping the arctic air makes sneaks in one more time tonight and gets stuck here for another gift so we can make it to 6'. I'm really jealous of Kalispell they are on track for a 100" winter. I think you have to go back to '96-'97 for that in Missoula.

[TT-SEA]

Nice!!! I think we hit 5' a couple days ago. Probably around 62 or 63" now.

 

I might be stuck right around 7 feet for awhile.. there is always April though!  

[ShawniganLake]

I might be stuck right around 7 feet for awhile.. there is always April though!

That's pretty awesome, I think. One thing that keeps snow totals down here is the fact that cold showery onshore flow patterns, like the one we have been in, almost never produce much snow here. We almost always get shadowed by the mountains to our west.

[ShawniganLake]

Yea I'm hoping the arctic air makes sneaks in one more time tonight and gets stuck here for another gift so we can make it to 6'. I'm really jealous of Kalispell they are on track for a 100" winter. I think you have to go back to '96-'97 for that in Missoula.

96-97 was very snowy here as well. Off the top of my head, I would guess the snowiest winters of my lifetime have been,

2008-09

1996-97

2016-17

2007-08

[Phil]

Truly is.

 

And facebook is taunting me with 'memories' from previous years when it was much nicer at this time.

Gonna be a rough summer for you.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

96-97 was very snowy here as well. Off the top of my head, I would guess the snowiest winters of my lifetime have been,

2008-09

1996-97

2016-17

2007-08

 

Are you sure you don't mean 2006/2007? That year had some very heavy snow over the South Island in November and a large snowfall in January. I don't recall anything notable in 2007/2008. I would have to think Jan 2005 was a very snowy month up there too given it dropped over 21" in Victoria.

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a rough summer for you.

 

OK Phil.   

[ShawniganLake]

Are you sure you don't mean 2006/2007? That year had some very heavy snow over the South Island in November and a large snowfall in January. I don't recall anything notable in 2007/2008. I would have to think Jan 2005 was a very snowy month up there too given it dropped over 21" in Victoria.

I am pretty sure we had around 55" that winter. Massive snowstorm on December 1 and 2. That seasons totals were somewhat inflated by an ungodly March and April. (16" fell after march 20th)

For the winter of 2007-2008, Shawnigan saw;

November 3"

December 27"

January 6"

February 2.5"

March 9.5"

April 7"

 

January 2005 saw close to 30" but lighter amounts the rest of the winter

2006-7 might have been close. With 30" in November and some snow in January, but I am pretty sure it fell short of 07-08.

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow is all gone. Didn't take long to melt.

 

High of 51 today with occasional light rain. In other news, I noticed KMAX finally came back online earlier today, maybe around noon.

[Timmy Supercell]

I am pretty sure we had around 55" that winter. Massive snowstorm on December 1 and 2. That seasons totals were somewhat inflated by an ungodly March and April. (16" fell after march 20th)

For the winter of 2007-2008, Shawnigan saw;

November 3"

December 27"

January 6"

February 2.5"

March 9.5"

April 7"

 

January 2005 saw close to 30" but lighter amounts the rest of the winter

2006-7 might have been close. With 30" in November and some snow in January, but I am pretty sure it fell short of 07-08.

 

I just got my most snowfall since the '07-'08 season (that was 63.5" down here). Sitting at 60.30" this season. With probably a bit more to come before Spring kicks in.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I am pretty sure we had around 55" that winter. Massive snowstorm on December 1 and 2. That seasons totals were somewhat inflated by an ungodly March and April. (16" fell after march 20th)

For the winter of 2007-2008, Shawnigan saw;

November 3"

December 27"

January 6"

February 2.5"

March 9.5"

April 7"

 

January 2005 saw close to 30" but lighter amounts the rest of the winter

2006-7 might have been close. With 30" in November and some snow in January, but I am pretty sure it fell short of 07-08.

 

Looks like YYJ ended up with 15" that winter, but it sure didn't feel like a snowy winter on the Island. The December overrun that quickly changed to rain and melted was responsible for half of that and much of the rest of it came in late March/April where it also melted rapidly. I guess it shows there's a lot more to a good winter than overall snowfall totals.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like it was pretty amazing at the herring spawn up in Nanoose. My brother took some pictures today. Hopefully it keeps up for when I'm up there this weekend.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/2745360589089651475-account_id1_zpsv4glronc.jpg

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/2017-03-08_zpsoz9hfjha.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like YYJ ended up with 15" that winter, but it sure didn't feel like a snowy winter on the Island. The December overrun that quickly changed to rain and melted was responsible for half of that and much of the rest of it came in late March/April where it also melted rapidly. I guess it shows there's a lot more to a good winter than overall snowfall totals.

Yea that 07-08 winter kind of came with an asterisk. The January 2005 and November 2006 events made for far more satisfying winters.

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing again here tonight. Mostly just in the form of light flurries. Would have been nice to have seen some heavy precip at some point during the past week with all this cold air around.

[epiceast]

Up to 1 1/2"-2" Dryer snow, ~15:1

[TT-SEA]

Drizzling here this morning... 36 degrees.    Glad to see it warmed up overnight.

 

Looks like the snow will be gone here by tomorrow morning and that might be it for the season.  

[Jesse]

Drizzling here this morning... 36 degrees. Glad to see it warmed up overnight.

 

Looks like the snow will be gone here by tomorrow morning and that might be it for the season.

We get it, you really want your snow to melt, which is the opposite of what 99.9% of us hope for. Literally nobody cares at this point. You are just annoying everyone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would like to see another 1-2" snowfall. Just to cap off the season. One of my favorite snows since I lived up here was April 14, 2015. Very memorable day, it was one of my few snows that winter and the afternoon was just gorgeous with sunny skies and highs in the mid-50s. 

[epiceast]

3" overnight still snowing. Shallow arctic air was able to make it here, it's 28F but snow is pretty wet likely 12:1 or worse. NWS thinks there's a small chance we won't get scoured now so might be able to cash in on the second punch tonight and this evening.

[TT-SEA]

Its interesting to watch the weather in DC every single day from the rooftop cable news sets which are outdoors with great views.  

 

I am seeing that it is FAR more sunny there than in our part of the country.   I have been looking on enviously almost every day for weeks now.  

[Geos]

Dense fog this morning on top of Finn Hill. Visibility only a couple hundred feet.

[Phil]

Its interesting to watch the weather in DC every single day from the rooftop cable news sets which are outdoors with great views.

 

I am seeing that it is FAR more sunny there than in our part of the country. I have been looking on enviously almost every day for weeks now.

Not a cloud in the sky today.

 

Might be nice at this time of year, but once the humidity starts increasing it becomes nightmarish.

[MossMan]

36 degree drizzle!! Yay!!

[HighlandExperience]

36 degree drizzle!! Yay!!

Sounds like the last 4 months.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like the last 4 months.

 

Models are encouraging... looks like we will finally warm up.   And there are some dry periods showing up in the models.   

 

Spring might finally get started here soon.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cancelled my Weather Bell account. Winter is officially over. 

[MossMan]

Models are encouraging... looks like we will finally warm up.   And there are some dry periods showing up in the models.   

 

Spring might finally get started here soon.  

I am more than ready now. Phil is making me nervous however with his "Tim is going to be disappointed this summer" talk...means I will also be quite disappointed if true. 

[IbrChris]

Pretty good odds of first 60 of the year at PDX Mon-Wed next week...depending on whether we can get some sunbreaks between systems. First 70 at Medford likely Sun-Tue timeframe.

 

Gradual cooling trend back half of next week into the following weekend as an upper level trough moves closer to the PNW. Highs below 50 at PDX look fairly unlikely in the next 15 days.

[IbrChris]

Mon-Wed high temps along I-5 corridor from 00z ensemble blend:

YVR 50 | 51 | 51
SEA 56 | 58 | 57
PDX 59 | 60 | 59
SLE 61 | 61 | 60

EUG 64 | 62 | 62
MFR 70 | 68 | 66

RDD 80 | 76 | 73

 

There's slight warmer risk if the trough near 165 W digs a bit more allowing for a bit more ridge amplification along the west coast.

 

[IbrChris]

Wish I was down in PHX next week...5 days of 90-92 which is close to record territory for mid March. I'll be there in May for about 10 days soaking in that sun.

[seattleweatherguy]

How about that storm

[Jesse]

Mon-Wed high temps along I-5 corridor from 00z ensemble blend:

 

YVR 50 | 51 | 51

SEA 56 | 58 | 57

PDX 59 | 60 | 59

SLE 61 | 61 | 60

EUG 64 | 62 | 62

MFR 70 | 68 | 66

RDD 80 | 76 | 73

 

There's slight warmer risk if the trough near 165 W digs a bit more allowing for a bit more ridge amplification along the west coast.

 

 

Hard to believe we're only a week away from 80 being historically possible at PDX.

[Jesse]

I am more than ready now. Phil is making me nervous however with his "Tim is going to be disappointed this summer" talk...means I will also be quite disappointed if true.

I'm really hoping Phil is right.

[TT-SEA]

I'm really hoping Phil is right.

 

 

So you want a cloudy, cold, rainy summer?   As opposed to a sunnier summer with temps maybe below normal?     I would be perfectly happy with the latter... but I think you want the former primarily so that me and other people who have moved here are very unhappy.  Show the PNW at its worst with no summer.   

[IbrChris]

My educated guess would be April 2017 ends up below normal and wetter than normal for the PNW (possibly Cali as well)...a good analog may be April 2012. Beyond that there's less of a signal, although most long-range guidance is showing May as normal to below normal in the PNW. Summer is still up in the air even from a long-range standpoint, although a move toward El Nino would suggest warmer than normal temps at some point in the JJA.

[TT-SEA]

My educated guess would be April 2017 ends up below normal and wetter than normal for the PNW (possibly Cali as well)...a good analog may be April 2012. Beyond that there's less of a signal, although most long-range guidance is showing May as normal to below normal in the PNW. Summer is still up in the air even from a long-range standpoint, although a move toward El Nino would suggest warmer than normal temps at some point in the JJA.

 

I am guessing there is only a 50% chance of an El Nino developing.    Decent chance we stay either side of neutral through the rest of the year.   

 

Very wet weather in February and March seems to be a fairly good sign for late spring and summer.   And the reverse can be true as well... 1993 had the driest February ever here.  

 

No way to know much at this point given the lack of a strong ENSO signal.   I am thinking it will be nicer than what I was assuming last year when I thought we would be in the middle of a strong multi-year Nina at this point.

[Geos]

Nice light soaking rain going on right now. @ 39° - yuck!

[Jesse]

At least the models are in agreement about some decent troughing returning beyond day 7.