March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looks like Central Park got 7.2" of snow. Not bad.

I think Trump was calling for less. Not sure if that 7.2" is actually valid though, since I heard that hundreds of thousands of illegal snowflakes may have tipped the scale in favor of higher totals.

[Deweydog]

I think Trump was calling for less. Not sure if that 7.2" is actually valid though, since I heard that hundreds of thousands of illegal snowflakes may have tipped the scale in favor of higher totals.

The supposed complexities surrounding which cities were and which were not snowflake sanctuaries made the forecast incredibly difficult.

[Phil]

Wouldn't the enso analogs be closer to 2012 or 2009 coming out of a weak la nina winter? Depending whether sst's fire up or not would determine which year would pan out for summer. But isn't current jet/storm pattern as much a function of the cold NE pool than enso at this point?

The ENSO wasn't strong in summer of 2010, it was a weak modoki niña configuration, similar to what we'll going forward over the next several months at least.

[Phil]

Some 5-8"/hr snowfall rates in interior areas. Except for lake effect snow, that's close to the heaviest you'll see.

[Jesse]

The supposed complexities surrounding which cities were and which were not snowflake sanctuaries made the forecast incredibly difficult.

My joke was better.

[Timmy Supercell]

Got to 71 a bit ago. That makes a record high today.

[Jesse]

Got to 71 a bit ago. That makes a record high today.

Pretty impressive warm southerly flow ahead of the front today. I bet your high wasn't the only record down that way.

[Deweydog]

My joke was better.

The issue of snowflake sanctuaries is no joke.

[BLI snowman]

I don't like the trend toward all energy approaching us diving offshore on the 12z Euro. Doesn't give a lot of hope for cool and dry weather. Just continued murky southerly flow.

There will be a lot of that this warm season. Looking forward to it.

[Jesse]

There will be a lot of that this warm season. Looking forward to it.

The last few days have been lovely!

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like Central Park got 7.2" of snow. Not bad. 

 

Much of Long Island had less than 5 inches. Far eastern parts only recorded half an inch. Pretty sharp contrasts in accumulation. 

[TT-SEA]

This is now the 6th wettest Feb/Mar period at SEA and there is still 17 days to go... so far there has been 12.35 inches of precip and they need another 3.21 inches to make it the wettest Feb/Mar period ever.    That would surpass 2014 which came in at 15.55 inches for Feb/Mar.

 

The other years included:

 

1972

1950

1961

1951

 

2017 will likely move up to 5th by morning overtaking 1951.   

 

I believe its very likely that 2017 will be #1 by the time this month is over.

[Front Ranger]

Much of Long Island had less than 5 inches. Far eastern parts only recorded half an inch. Pretty sharp contrasts in accumulation.

Odd to see such focused attention on a March snowstorm in the NE.

[Kayla]

Odd to see such focused attention on a March snowstorm in the NE.

 

Boring weather in the West...hard not to peek in on it.

 

Looks like my 20" of snowfall in ~5 hours is still the clear winner in the lowlands lower 48 this winter!

[Jesse]

Anyone who looks at this 500mb loop can see how close we came to greatness this week. That ridge is still sitting out there and has remained strong for days. If only everything had been just a little further east.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone who looks at this 500mb loop can see how close we came to greatness this week. That ridge is still sitting out there and has remained strong for days. If only everything had been just a little further east.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

 

It was close. Alaska has been cold. 

[Jesse]

It was close. Alaska has been cold. 

 

Yeah Anchorage has been running way below average.

[Jesse]

At least it looks like temperatures return to seasonable levels after tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to about 8" of rain on the month now. The past few days have been very mild and wet. The grass is starting to green up. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty decent shot of cold air looks to move in this weekend with 850s briefly dropping to -7 or so. No question that will make things noticeably colder again for a couple of days. Looks like we may have a shot at a clear night with it.

[BLI snowman]

Already over the monthly average now at 4.50" and counting. Beautiful stuff.

[IbrChris]

I did, but I signed up for the week free trial last week. Definitely not worth the $25 bucks a month.

My first year on there it was $180 for a whole year or $20 a month. I cancelled a few months ago after probably 2 or 3 years of membership. No reason to pay when I already have access to the same thing through work.

[Phil]

Boring weather in the West...hard not to peek in on it.

 

Looks like my 20" of snowfall in ~5 hours is still the clear winner in the lowlands lower 48 this winter!

Mr. Lake Ontario snowbelt says not so fast.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does show widespread low 60s and dry for next Monday and Tuesday.    Something nice for a little while.  

[Phil]

Highest snowfall total looks to be 41" in Bridgewater. If true, then our blizzard last winter still wins. Suck it, New England.

[Kayla]

Mr. Lake Ontario snowbelt says not so fast.

 

Lake effect snow doesn't count! 

 

Tough to beat those locations on any given winter.

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim could get some more snow this weekend. 

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

Getting a little breezy out.

[TT-SEA]

Tim could get some more snow this weekend. 

 

Nahhhh... front blows through Saturday morning and then there is a c-zone well to my north.   That is not an ideal situation for snow here.   And then Sunday looks nice.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like an overall change in the pattern begins on Saturday with the offshore trough finally kicking through after being parked in the GOA for what seems like forever.

 

This should usher in a more reasonable spring pattern. Not totally dry and ridgy of course... but more reasonable with dry periods and probably more sun.

[Jesse]

Looks like an overall change in the pattern begins on Saturday with the offshore trough finally kicking through after being parked in the GOA for what seems like forever.

 

This should usher in a more reasonable spring pattern. Not totally dry and ridgy of course... but more reasonable with dry periods and probably more sun.

Yeah, it will be nice to see that persistent feature finally progress. Some dryish NW flow sound good right now.

[Jesse]

Monday and Tuesday next week look great. Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s.

[stuffradio]

Monday and Tuesday next week look great. Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s.

I'm getting some drainage done next week too.

[Jesse]

I'm getting some drainage done next week too.

You know I always keep your gardening plans in mind!

[stuffradio]

You know I always keep your gardening plans in mind!

I do know that

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be out in Texas and Oklahoma next week. When I get back I am ready for spring!

[TT-SEA]

SEA is closing the gap fast on the wettest Feb/Mar ever... looks like another .70 on the day so far and 2.4 inches to go before the end of the month to take over the #1 spot from 2014.  

 

Its been a wet decade!   

[dairyd]

The ENSO wasn't strong in summer of 2010, it was a weak modoki niña configuration, similar to what we'll going forward over the next several months at least.

 

I believe what you say.  Can you explain though why the JFM temps do not line up with 2010?  2009 is a much better fit.

 

2010 Abbotsford:

 

2009 Abbotsford: