Hoosier Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Man that is a clipper from hell on the 18z GFS for the 14th-15th. Actually a hybrid Pac system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Man that is a clipper from hell on the 18z GFS for the 14th-15th. Actually a hybrid Pac system. Cannot trust a THING that model shows right now, good or bad unfortunately. Seems the "upgrade(s)" have made it the least stable (or as Tom put it) most bizarro guidance at present. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Cannot trust a THING that model shows right now, good or bad unfortunately. Seems the "upgrade(s)" have made it the least stable (or as Tom put it) most bizarro guidance at present. Yeah I agree. Certainly seems that way anecdotally and I think verification scores back that up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 On 12/3/2022 at 2:40 PM, Hoosier said: Bring back some of that optimism from last night lol 12z Euro gave us Iowa's left-overs but still a respectable 4" total here. 2nd wave a few days later adds a couple. Would be a nice start around here. Lol, as big as anything I got last winter. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Nothing like a potential hit in NE and IA to activate this Sub. Ya'll out west of The Mitt fire-up a thread as soon as you have confidence in it. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 @Clinton said " IMO this should be a strong storm." The rare d8+ from the CPC would agree with your opinion: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Alright alright I'll bite. Wondering if models are starting to slowly but surely hone in on a snowier solution for the NE/IA I-80 stretch because we're also slowly but surely getting more and more energy onshore. Can see some of the mass of vorticity currently on land, good portion of it still offshore. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 18z Euro Control 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 18z GFS has the storm, and it is stronger than the Euro, but it is too warm to portray a snowy outcome. It really brings yuuuge qpf on the order of 1.5"+ to SEMI. I have zero training or education in reading this so anyone who can, please tell me. It looks like the 850 temps are just too warm but how far are we away from say a "wet bulbing" success story? Are we miles, feet, or inches away from a decent flip to a snowier solution? Could this even be a RN-->SN situation. That's very common here over the decades with an W to E storm motion. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, The Snowman said: Alright alright I'll bite. Wondering if models are starting to slowly but surely hone in on a snowier solution for the NE/IA I-80 stretch because we're also slowly but surely getting more and more energy onshore. Can see some of the mass of vorticity currently on land, good portion of it still offshore. Good catch. Over here, I also need them to find more cold air. And that may well be the last piece of the puzzle to be defined. @Tom said could be some real nail-biting in our futures. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 18z GFS has the storm, and it is stronger than the Euro, but it is too warm to portray a snowy outcome. It really brings yuuuge qpf on the order of 1.5"+ to SEMI. I have zero training or education in reading this so anyone who can, please tell me. It looks like the 850 temps are just too warm but how far are we away from say a "wet bulbing" success story? Are we miles, feet, or inches away from a decent flip to a snowier solution? Could this even be a RN-->SN situation. That's very common here over the decades with an W to E storm motion. Almost all of that sounding is below 0C, except for the area closest to ground level. The thing is that the precip is pretty much gone by that time (126 hrs). Would need to see earlier soundings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Almost all of that sounding is below 0C, except for the area closest to ground level. The thing is that the precip is pretty much gone by that time (126 hrs). Would need to see earlier soundings. I realized that right after posting. Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 GRR pm edition acknowledging the potential: -- Thursday / Friday system looking more formidable -- The upper low off the West Coast at this time will make its way through the Rockies and push through the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as an open wave. Typical speed and timing differences at this range exist, but a surface low looks to pass off to our south placing Southwest Lower Michigan in the zone for a mixture of precipitation. There is not a lot of cold air to work with as it is bottled up further north into Canada given a stronger zonal flow. That said, enough cold air is in place for potentially a swath of snow across our forecast area. Too early to say where this sets up, but at this time it would be near or north of I-96. Plenty of time for the track to move yet, so its too early to discuss where that may occur with any confidence. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just about time to fire up a storm thread. Maybe after tonight’s runs. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 On 12/3/2022 at 3:05 PM, Hoosier said: Was looking up some December snowfall stats for Chicago. The 4 Decembers from 2018-2021 produced the lowest cumulative snowfall total on record, just barely beating out 1936-1939. Dec 1936: 0.8" Dec 1937: 3.4" Dec 1938: 3.5" Dec 1939: 0.5" Total: 8.2" Dec 2018: 1.4" Dec 2019: 2.0" Dec 2020: 2.8" Dec 2021: 1.9" Total: 8.1" December snowfall average for Chicago is ~ 8" That stat makes one think that perhaps Ole Man Winter has some balancing out to do around here. Detroit may have done marginally better, but not vastly different. I'm yet to get familiar with "normals" or avg's per month since moving here. I know its less than I had before, and that alone makes it too depressing causing my procrastination in the matter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Just about time to fire up a storm thread. Maybe after tonight’s runs. You guys that are getting hit first and have enough cold in place, go for it. Still a lot TBD over here as to whether we join your party or not. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Models will be all over the place w/ the late week potential storm. By mid to even end of late week looks like a there will be a better understanding w/ this. You'd think, w/ today's latest technology, models should be superb, or at least some. I.e., I remember once (couple of yrs ago) where they were expecting a foot of snow back in nyc and so, my grandfather told me: QUOTE: "Let me go outside right now and check on the sky and I will tell you exactly if we will get this major snowstorm." Well, when he came back inside on that frigid evening, he told me that not a flake will fall "END Quote and mind you we were already under a WSW. I told him..."WHATTTT??" You are hallucinating grandpa. Ya have no idea what ya talking about and he just laughed back. Well, guess what. Nothing fell. This storm was blocked by a huge HP area to our north which kept it from moving north. Heavy snow reached as far north as south Jersey and that was it. Philly, D.C., Baltimore, Virginia all got buried. I was looking at verga all day, watching this thing trying to move north, but it just couldn't do it. I was so amazed at how he even saw that coming. All meteorologists never mentioned a word about this HP. I'll tell ya one thing, alotta people were pissed in NYC w all weatherman that day. Just amazing how these old timers had such technique w/ weather systems. Sometimes I think that these people might be better than comp. models. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Niko said: Models will be all over the place w/ the late week potential storm. By mid to even end of late week looks like a there will be a better understanding w/ this. You'd think, w/ today's latest technology, models should be superb, or at least some. I.e., I remember once (couple of yrs ago) where they were expecting a foot of snow back in nyc and so, my grandfather told me: QUOTE: "Let me go outside right now and check on the sky and I will tell you exactly if we will get this major snowstorm." Well, when he came back inside on that frigid evening, he told me that not a flake will fall "END Quote and mind you we were already under a WSW. I told him..."WHATTTT??" You are hallucinating grandpa. Ya have no idea what ya talking about and he just laughed back. Well, guess what. Nothing fell. This storm was blocked by a huge HP area to our north which kept it from moving north. Heavy snow reached as far north as south Jersey and that was it. Philly, D.C., Baltimore, Virginia all got buried. I was looking at verga all day, watching this thing trying to move north, but it just couldn't do it. I was so amazed at how he even saw that coming. All meteorologists never mentioned a word about this HP. I'll tell ya one thing, alotta people were pissed in NYC w all weatherman that day. Just amazing how these old timers had such technique w/ weather systems. Sometimes I think that these people might be better than comp. models. Haha! That was me back in the 80's & 90's prior to the www, and model sites available to the general public. "Old school rules" I call them now-a-days. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 PNW Peeps having quite a time over in that half of the Forum. Luv the precise location. The extreme opposite of so many I have seen posting in here. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: PNW Peeps having quite a time over in that half of the Forum. Luv the precise location. The extreme opposite of so many I have seen posting in here. Great pic amigo. Like you said, nothing beats seeing Christmas lights w/ snow. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Niko said: Great pic amigo. Like you said, nothing beats seeing Christmas lights w/ snow. I know next to nothing about WA, but that pic verbatim could be anywhere USA. Might even be a Detroit suburb, lol (next Friday??) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 From NOAA: There is large spread within the model solution space with respect to timing and amplitude of this system, so expect considerable changes in how the model solutions handle this system over the next few days. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Now this is more like it. Maybe the models are finally catching on. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Now this is more like it. Maybe the models are finally catching on. Just saw the same. I need cold tho, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Just saw the same. I need cold tho, lol That is what I am afraid too. Lack of cold w/ this one. I would not be surprised if a cold rain ends up happening and perhaps a few flurries at the tail end. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 This could and will change...but for now: 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Oz GFS still mostly rain for Thursday storm. Just not seeing the cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The GFS has no cold air, so it's all rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The CMC much like the Euro 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: That stat makes one think that perhaps Ole Man Winter has some balancing out to do around here. Detroit may have done marginally better, but not vastly different. I'm yet to get familiar with "normals" or avg's per month since moving here. I know its less than I had before, and that alone makes it too depressing causing my procrastination in the matter. Decembers 2018-2021 produced a total of 16.1" at DTW. Well below average snow, but about double compared to Chicago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The 00z GFS is rain, rain, rain through mid-month. Each system is warmer than the last one. The Canadian is very different. It has snow, snow, with no warm surges like the GFS. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 The UK continues to be on board the snow scenario. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Decembers 2018-2021 produced a total of 16.1" at DTW. Well below average snow, but about double compared to Chicago. Interesting. DTW out-snowing ORD. Travesty Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Niko said: Models will be all over the place w/ the late week potential storm. By mid to even end of late week looks like a there will be a better understanding w/ this. You'd think, w/ today's latest technology, models should be superb, or at least some. I.e., I remember once (couple of yrs ago) where they were expecting a foot of snow back in nyc and so, my grandfather told me: QUOTE: "Let me go outside right now and check on the sky and I will tell you exactly if we will get this major snowstorm." Well, when he came back inside on that frigid evening, he told me that not a flake will fall "END Quote and mind you we were already under a WSW. I told him..."WHATTTT??" You are hallucinating grandpa. Ya have no idea what ya talking about and he just laughed back. Well, guess what. Nothing fell. This storm was blocked by a huge HP area to our north which kept it from moving north. Heavy snow reached as far north as south Jersey and that was it. Philly, D.C., Baltimore, Virginia all got buried. I was looking at verga all day, watching this thing trying to move north, but it just couldn't do it. I was so amazed at how he even saw that coming. All meteorologists never mentioned a word about this HP. I'll tell ya one thing, alotta people were pissed in NYC w all weatherman that day. Just amazing how these old timers had such technique w/ weather systems. Sometimes I think that these people might be better than comp. models. I agree with you whole heartedly. I remember many east coast storms where i could sense the convergence in the atmosphere ahead of a noreaster particularly in February.. it was as if the high pressure was saying "here a place for the low to come to". I know that not scientific but its true. Also there were snows there where models said the low would go off into Atlantic but you could feel the cf stalling and i at times out predicted the models. Like jan 2000 i believe. And here in iowa ive learned to sense LLJ a few hours before it kicks in.. a strange odd wind around sunset.. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 00z Canadian with a nice little ice storm in the Omaha area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 36 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The UK continues to be on board the snow scenario. When the GFS is kind of by itself at this range, it's typically going to be wrong. Not always, but usually. I'd be cautiously optimistic about a snow event in that timeframe, especially around/north of I-80. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 First time of the season I'm up for the 0z Euro for a snowstorm threat, now will it be a run that inspires crippling depression or euphoric joy? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Euro is S of 12Z and overall weaker with less QPF coverage. But still a far cry from the GFS and colder air quicker is good along I-80 in IA. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 5, 2022 Report Share Posted December 5, 2022 0z Euro is starting to show a colder storm on 12th and 13th. For some this could mean snow on top of snow. The EPS for that time period: 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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