December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

Nice December day today with slightly below normal temps. Chance for some light snow developing toward daybreak on Sunday changing to rain during the morning and ending mixed with snow again during the evening. Dry and chilly during the mid-week before snow chances increase with some potential for a significant storm starting on Wednesday night into Thursday. Details of course TBD but something to watch and we will during the week.

The record high for today is 70 degrees set in 1946. The record low is 1 degree above zero set today in 1910. Our daily rain record is the 1.90" from 1952. Daily snow record is the 5.9" that fell in 1904.

[gimmesnow]

Hope this can stay south enough to hammer Wausau. Would be nice to get a trip in to Cascade.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m not as optimistic as some.  If it gets super cold and dry.  It’s just a waste.  Yeah the lakes will produce some snow, but ugh. It’s crazy how hard it is to just get decent snowfall nowadays here from a system. 

Yeah, this LRC looks like yet another Plains/Midwest winter on tap. Sure, we'll get the occasional hit but majority of the action looks west of us yet again. Strange triple Nina for sure. Getting ready for my 1 inch from the pre-Christmas system. IF it can hold together which models have handled poorly to date.

[westMJim]

The snow that fell yesterday is now all gone here, so it's back to the green grass bare trees that we have had since the start of December.

 

[Niko]

Fantasy map or not..not too shabby at all. Also, I'd rather not be in bullseye this early, so maybe the good stuff from the west will move more east as time nears.

@Clintonplace looks to be buried by Christmas Eve!!!!!

[Andie]

Anticipating a great deal of rain this afternoon and evening.  

High of 70* and 100% chance of rain till 10 pm.  This should mess up a perfectly good Saturday.  🫤

[Hoosier]

51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, this LRC looks like yet another Plains/Midwest winter on tap. Sure, we'll get the occasional hit but majority of the action looks west of us yet again. Strange triple Nina for sure. Getting ready for my 1 inch from the pre-Christmas system. IF it can hold together which models have handled poorly to date.

All I know is I want some good snow before late January/February.  It's just a personal preference of mine to have more of a front loaded winter. 

But besides that, one of these years we won't get bailed out by the snowy February.

[Clinton]

12z Euro coming into range and showing a storm on the 20th coming out of the Texas Panhandle.  My take on the LRC is that at least 1 of the storms between the 20th and Christmas Day should get wound up good.  Other LRC followers I'm interested in your take.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

All I know is I want some good snow before late January/February.  It's just a personal preference of mine to have more of a front loaded winter. 

But besides that, one of these years we won't get bailed out by the snowy February.

I'd rather have a front loaded Winter as well.  There is a better chance the snow will stay on longer especially in western MO where I live.  My last 2 Winters have been very back loaded and last year 26 of the 27 inches I received fell in February.  It was an exciting month but I wasn't able to hold on to the snow for more than 4 or 5 days.

[Up_north_MI]

Will be interested to see if and how the weather pattern changes next week. If it changes to a north west cooler flow pattern  I feel that will be a good sign for the holiday period to look and feel like winter, if not I’m not holding out much hope for a winterish look and feel till later in January like it has been the past couple winters here in northern lower MI. The 20+ inches of snow we’ve had already this Nov/Dec is pretty much all melted but the ground is definitely freezing up pretty firm and is ready to hold some snow if and when it comes.

[Clinton]

My goodness the Control is cold going into Christmas.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco::

Behind this system, a cold pattern takes hold and doesn`t look to
let up through for at least a couple weeks. All 3 major global
ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMC) indicate a solid period of below-normal
temperatures from the 15th to the 25th. Sub-freezing highs and
single digit (or even subzero) lows may be common during this
timeframe.

[OKwx2k4]

Ywah. December definitely is looking like a second-half team kind of month. 

Lock it down and let it roll. Winter is back.

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings afternoon disco::

Behind this system, a cold pattern takes hold and doesn`t look to
let up through for at least a couple weeks. All 3 major global
ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMC) indicate a solid period of below-normal
temperatures from the 15th to the 25th. Sub-freezing highs and
single digit (or even subzero) lows may be common during this
timeframe.

Let's just hope we break our streak of nothingness and get some snow. It would be horrid if we get the cold coming and bare ground. 

[Clinton]

Dense Fog Advisory tonight, could have freezing fog.  Should make for a beautiful sunrise tomorrow. 

[jaster220]

The Christmas miracle storm of '02, my first year in Marshall. Was forecast to continue due east and slide well S of The Mitt. It took a substantial left at the OH river and gave a wonderful surprise to the MICHINDIOH region falling on the eve. JB called this one when nobody else had it going north. That was 20 yrs ago when he was focused on forecasting only and not climo and much more into being a weatherman. 

[Andie]

A great deal of rain this afternoon and evening.  Still coming down. Lots of thunder and lightning.  Sounds like Spring or early Fall. Just very different. 

 High of 70.  Currently 55. This messed up a perfectly good Saturday.  🫤  Christmas drivers were certifiable. 

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Andie said:

A great deal of rain this afternoon and evening.  Still coming down. Lots of thunder and lightning.  Sounds like Spring or early Fall. Just very different. 

 High of 70.  Currently 55. This messed up a perfectly good Saturday.  🫤  Christmas drivers were certifiable. 

Had to LOL. They were horrible around here too

[bud2380]

Very quiet weather after the big storm next week.  The GFS at day 10 has nothing, and there are no storms anywhere near the west coast to come onshore.

 

[Andie]

Even the ducks were pissed off. 

[Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

The Christmas miracle storm of '02, my first year in Marshall. Was forecast to continue due east and slide well S of The Mitt. It took a substantial left at the OH river and gave a wonderful surprise to the MICHINDIOH region falling on the eve. JB called this one when nobody else had it going north. That was 20 yrs ago when he was focused on forecasting only and not climo and much more into being a weatherman. 

Remember that storm fondly.  Me and what was a very lean crew of Midwest posters back then were over at the old Wright Weather Bulletin Board for that one.  You're right about the snow going much farther northwest than forecast.  I recall a snow advisory being hoisted at the last minute before I left for my Christmas Eve holiday plans.  There was a primary surface low that hung on longer than progged in Ohio.  Then a coastal low developed and produced a nice storm for parts of the east.

[gabel23]

I have been following Gary Lezak and his LRC since 2009; and he always says how the weather is cycling and never repeats itself. I have to disagree with his statement about how storm patterns don’t repeat. Bismarck, ND and the rest of western North Dakota is about to go through the same thing Nebraska did back in December of 1983. They received a 12+” snowstorm the weekend after thanksgiving and they are about to receive another all before x mas. History repeats itself if the long range models hold true. We had sub zero highs the week before x mas and a 2’+ snow depth x mas day. Things are certainly trending that way only further to the north. 

 

[gabel23]

Not saying it will reach that magnitude but it's very similar. 

https://www.weather.gov/ddc/December1983ArcticOutbreak

 

[westMJim]

 

Yesterday’s official H/L was 34/32 there was 0.02” of precipitation all of that was snow fall of .2” There was no sunshine and yesterday at 7AM there was a trace of snow on the ground. The temperature held steady overnight at 34 here and while there was a covering of snow last night that is mostly gone now and just a trace of snow is on the ground. For today the average H/L is now 37/26 the record high of 63 was in 1949 and the record low of -3 was in 1962. The record snow fall of 14.2” fell in 2000.

We now have 10 days of December 2022 in the record books and so far, it has been a mild December with much less snow fall than average. Grand Rapids has a mean so far of 34.7° (+1.6) the high so far is 51 on the 2^nd and the low so far is 21 on the 4^th there has been 0.24” of rain and melted snow and just 0.6” of snow fall (.2” more fell yesterday) At Lansing the mean there is 35.5(+3.2) and they have recorded 0.27” of total precipitation 0.9” of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean there is 36.9 (+2.5) just 0.09” of precipitation and just a trace of snow fall so far. At Holland the mean there is 36.1 (+1.9) with 0.24” of total precipitation. Snow fall records are not kept at Holland.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

I have been following Gary Lezak and his LRC since 2009; and he always says how the weather is cycling and never repeats itself. I have to disagree with his statement about how storm patterns don’t repeat. Bismarck, ND and the rest of western North Dakota is about to go through the same thing Nebraska did back in December of 1983. They received a 12+” snowstorm the weekend after thanksgiving and they are about to receive another all before x mas. History repeats itself if the long range models hold true. We had sub zero highs the week before x mas and a 2’+ snow depth x mas day. Things are certainly trending that way only further to the north. 

 

I have been thinking about this idea time and time again over the years while following the LRC.  I've seen examples of storms of the past that look very similar to storms that tracked during various years.  If you can combine the "art" of using historical analogs like JB does and use the technology that Gary Lezak has developed over the years, boy, you can imagine the power of forecasting the weather.  

[Tom]

@Clinton, as I see it, the relaxation of the PNA and the 10mb pattern below, should create a "corridor" right up from your area into the OHV through the Christmas Holiday period.  Depending on how the southern wave develops along the arctic boundary, I feel pretty confident we will see a healthy wound up storm.  I'm going to take a stab at this pattern and predict Back-2-Back cutters during the Week of the 18th.  Some will miss the 1st one, but the 2nd one hitting around Christmas Eve will be a rather large storm to hit the S Plains up into the MW/OHV region.

 

 

 

My...Oh, My....The "Nanook from the North" is planning on paying a visit...the wrath of the Polar Vortex is going to inundate the Lower 48 by the Christmas Holiday period.  Those LR signals are coming to fruition rather nicely yet again.

 

 

0z EPS temp mean...to the Extreme???

[Tom]

On this day in history, 22 years ago, parts of our Sub were hit by a major winter storm that ejected out of the CO Rockies and took a favorable track for the MW/GL's region.  Can we see more of this in our weather pattern?  Nature does repeat and as @gabel23 mentioned, I think this years LRC pattern is quite fascinating one that will produce juicy and wound up systems.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2000&month=12&day=10&hour=17&minute=35

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro is pretty brutal... very cold arctic air over bare ground.  If we can't get any snow, I'd much rather keep the temps we've had for the first third of the month.

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, as I see it, the relaxation of the PNA and the 10mb pattern below, should create a "corridor" right up from your area into the OHV through the Christmas Holiday period.  Depending on how the southern wave develops along the arctic boundary, I feel pretty confident we will see a healthy wound up storm.  I'm going to take a stab at this pattern and predict Back-2-Back cutters during the Week of the 18th.  Some will miss the 1st one, but the 2nd one hitting around Christmas Eve will be a rather large storm to hit the S Plains up into the MW/OHV region.

 

 

 

My...Oh, My....The "Nanook from the North" is planning on paying a visit...the wrath of the Polar Vortex is going to inundate the Lower 48 by the Christmas Holiday period.  Those LR signals are coming to fruition rather nicely yet again.

 

 

0z EPS temp mean...to the Extreme???

I would love to see something like this for the week of the 20th.  

[Tom]

Here's another storm that fits the pattern being forecast during the Christmas week period...Feb 4th-5th 2014...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2014&month=2&day=4&hour=0&minute=35

 

 

Last, but not least, the infamous Super Bowl Blizzard of 2015...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2015&month=1&day=31&hour=14&minute=35

[Clinton]

While not exactly what my impression of the pattern will look like the week of the 20th.  It appears the 6z GFS does have a clue with the 2 systems running back to back.

[Andie]

Well, here she comes!  Skies growing darker at 8am. 
Ducks are preparing. They’re battening down the hatches, gathering the babies, and a major squawk underway.  (And that’s just inside the house!)

Actually it’s just the skies  No rain on radar  

51*, humidity 99%!! (I mean what’s 1% really?!)

We love rain in Texas. We just don’t want it all at once!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Im not going to quote any of you, nor will I trash the models. But here on the ground in the real world this December  is turning  out much as Dec 2021.  Mild,  big warm blow mid month (tornados 2021) and cooler with  click bait for end of the month.  Think for  my sanity I leave here for awhile. December  is beginning  to be November  and my  business  revenue  proves it. How many years will years will Decembers continue  like this?  December  weather is putting me under!

[Clinton]

Looking at the MJO indexes in which none of them agree really, I think the JMA is the one to follow.  It shows the MJO moving into phase 1 mid month and then into phase 2.  This seems to fit with what the models are showing in the long range

Here are the composites for phase 1 and 2

[chescowxman]

A chilly light rain is falling this morning across much of Chester County. Up to 0.25" of rain could fall in some spots today. Clearing tonight and then dry through Wednesday. It looks snow may arrive on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, models today now show a pretty quick change to rain...but as we have said expect models to bounce around a bit before we get some consensus by mid-week.

The record high for today is 68 degrees from way back in 1897. The record low is 2 above zero from 1968. The daily rain record is the 1.95" from 2002. Record snow is the 9" that fell today back in 1960.

[Clinton]

The freezing fog is beautiful to look at this morning but it is causing some problems on the highways this morning.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

Getting a few reports now of slick spots on bridges and overpasses around the Metro with freezing fog. Take it easy if heading out this morning! If the road looks wet it is going to be slick.

[chescowxman]

I thought I would post the analysis of White Christmas chances for the Philly burbs of Chester County PA. We have about a 26% chance of at least 1" of snow on the ground come Christmas morning.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has a 1064 mb HP in the Arctic Ocean!

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Im not going to quote any of you, nor will I trash the models. But here on the ground in the real world this December  is turning  out much as Dec 2021.  Mild,  big warm blow mid month (tornados 2021) and cooler with  click bait for end of the month.  Think for  my sanity I leave here for awhile. December  is beginning  to be November  and my  business  revenue  proves it. How many years will years will Decembers continue  like this?  December  weather is putting me under!

I think the monthly temp anomalies will look quite different on 12/31 than they do on 12/15.  The bigger question is how much snow will there be to go with it.

[Andie]

Our dark sky was heavy fog. No rain. 
That was some heavy duty fog. But as it occurred as the sun was rising it makes sense. 
Only lasted 20 minutes or so.  Very odd.