December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Cold and dry seems to be winning out on the models.

[CentralNebWeather]

What a horrible start to our snow season. 

[Bryan1117]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

What a horrible start to our snow season. 

No real sign of any change coming either… rinse, wash, repeat (more cold and dry upcoming).

[OmahaSnowFan]

.2” of snow so far this year and somewhere between 2-6” of snow over the next 16 days doesn’t exactly get a person that excited. But hey it’ll be cold

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

On this day in history, 22 years ago, parts of our Sub were hit by a major winter storm that ejected out of the CO Rockies and took a favorable track for the MW/GL's region.  Can we see more of this in our weather pattern?  Nature does repeat and as @gabel23 mentioned, I think this years LRC pattern is quite fascinating one that will produce juicy and wound up systems.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2000&month=12&day=10&hour=17&minute=35

Beast of a pre-Christmas blizzard. A true bliz at that. 14-20" across much of SMI. Forecast was accurate and the storm delivered. None of the 12-18" and you don't hit 6" crap. A storm of that caliber hits SMI pre-Christmas on avg twice a century and we're nowhere near "due" so we can fondly remember but put it back up on its trophy shelf, lol. 

SMI Big Dog rankings by impact. Depending on yby's locale, you may not agree ofc. For the record, there has never been a single storm that covered every county of SMI region with double digits. One corner usually is the focus or the other and vice-versa. When I show totals, that was widespread in the harder hit areas.

1) Bliz of '78  Up to 36"

2) Bliz of '67  Up to 30"

3) Bliz of '99  15-30" 

4) Dec '00 bliz  14-20" 

5) Jan '14 PV storm  Up to 22"

6) Bliz of '79 Up to 20"

7) GHD-2 storm  Up to 20" 

8)) GHD-1 bliz  Up to 18"

 

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

.2” of snow so far this year and somewhere between 2-6” of snow over the next 16 days doesn’t exactly get a person that excited. But hey it’ll be cold

But hey, look at my little hot corner of The Mitt. Could be worse, lol. Funny how it has a huge void right where @Tom & @Clinton say there will be action, lol. Let the fur fly as to who is correct in the end. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Bryan1117 said:

No real sign of any change coming either… rinse, wash, repeat (more cold and dry upcoming).

Pretty pessimistic of anything of substance around here. Now there is nothing forecasted in the extended as had been shown a couple of days ago in the models. 

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

But hey, look at my little hot corner of The Mitt. Could be worse, lol. Funny how it has a huge void right where @Tom & @Clinton say there will be action, lol. Let the fur fly as to who is correct in the end. 

2 systems between the 19th and 25th.  it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track.  Here is what the Euro Control thinks today.

The GEFS:

EPS:

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

2 systems between the 19th and 25th.  it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track.  Here is what the Euro Control thinks today.

The GEFS:

EPS:

#FestiveMiracle

[Clinton]

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

Something to be aware of as we head toward the holidays - confidence continues to increase that colder than normal (with periods of much colder than normal) temperatures will move into the region for mid to late December.

[Hoosier]

51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Beast of a pre-Christmas blizzard. A true bliz at that. 14-20" across much of SMI. Forecast was accurate and the storm delivered. None of the 12-18" and you don't hit 6" crap. A storm of that caliber hits SMI pre-Christmas on avg twice a century and we're nowhere near "due" so we can fondly remember but put it back up on its trophy shelf, lol. 

SMI Big Dog rankings by impact. Depending on yby's locale, you may not agree ofc. For the record, there has never been a single storm that covered every county of SMI region with double digits. One corner usually is the focus or the other and vice-versa. When I show totals, that was widespread in the harder hit areas.

 

That's pretty incredible.  1999 didn't do it?

I can think of a couple storms in the last 25 years off the top of my head that covered half or more of the state of Indiana with double digit amounts.  The Jan 1999 and Jan 2014 storms.  The 2014 storm actually had a larger footprint of double digit totals in IN.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

2 systems between the 19th and 25th.  it's not a question of whether they will be there but where exactly they will track.  Here is what the Euro Control thinks today.

The GEFS:

EPS:

Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL

Don't blame you one bit.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That's pretty incredible.  1999 didn't do it?

I can think of a couple storms in the last 25 years off the top of my head that covered half or more of the state of Indiana with double digit amounts.  The Jan 1999 and Jan 2014 storms.  The 2014 storm actually had a larger footprint of double digit totals in IN.

I rode out 1999 at my sister's place in the Thumb. The absolute worst place. A decent storm at 8-ish inches but nothing like the historic event the other 3/4 of SMI enjoyed. Northern SEMI was the low-ball region for that one. With 67 it was the two corner extremes, far NW and far SE that got low-balled. 78 cut totals to singe digits in S half of SEMI due to a period of mixing issues. Jan 67 had the most 15+ coverage iirc

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL

Would be nice to see the individual ensemble members to see how many are actually producing snow in the area.  You can have most members producing some snow, or a handful of members producing a ton of snow with most not producing and the ensemble mean would look similar.

[Stacsh]

27 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Love the optimism and very very much appreciate the maps, I really do but I've had a lot of map snow and not so much falling on my head snow. The storm that just passed through. You know, the one the Euro "Can-Troll" showed 10" here on more than one run. I don't think 10 flakes fell here. I've deemed model maps all but useless until proven otherwise. I'll need to see real flakes flying before buying anything. This is a self-preservation tactic, LOL

At least it will get cold.  Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke.  But cold nonetheless.  And if it gets colder that means chances of snow.  I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong  in the long range.  So anything is possible.  

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

I have been thinking about this idea time and time again over the years while following the LRC.  I've seen examples of storms of the past that look very similar to storms that tracked during various years.  If you can combine the "art" of using historical analogs like JB does and use the technology that Gary Lezak has developed over the years, boy, you can imagine the power of forecasting the weather.  

Has to take a huge photographic/numerical memory to do what he (Bastardi) and JD have been doing for the last several years now. 

Calling the trifecta winters of 2009-10, 10-11 and 2011-12 was off the charts crazy, and absolutely right on. Same with Sandy off a storm analog from goodness knows where and when ago. 

When someone discovers how to combine all three parts and break away from dependency on climate modeling to do smaller scale patterning; (when its largely known now that there are many historical climate events they cannot replicate. Documented case being the 1976-1979 climate shift, and dust bowl event contrasted with 2019-22s dual drought in the plains and california and into the desert sw.))....there will be a more solid base of forecasters using real experience with their model use the way these guys do. 

I think "relocalizing" weather offices or decentralizing them to people/observer/forecasters would actually make things better.

A blend of the old-school and new. 

Examples being, we have known the GFS's biases going on 15 plus years now on the hobby driven expert level even. With enough to hedge them outside 4 days. They don't ever fix them.

Same with euro....

These guys still grow and tune their skills off real stuff. 

Another two old-school guys that deserve mention are Jim Flowers and Larry Cosgrove. They have brought a great deal to weather forecasting in the last 2 decades.

[OKwx2k4]

Excited to see reruns showing up of what looks like a "Blitz 2000" scenario. 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

On this day in history, 22 years ago, parts of our Sub were hit by a major winter storm that ejected out of the CO Rockies and took a favorable track for the MW/GL's region.  Can we see more of this in our weather pattern?  Nature does repeat and as @gabel23 mentioned, I think this years LRC pattern is quite fascinating one that will produce juicy and wound up systems.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=140&interval=15&year=2000&month=12&day=10&hour=17&minute=35

12-11-00 was the Big Dog and the first of several storms in a train of storms. Deep deep snow cover blanketed most of SMI peaking just a few days before Christmas. 

You can see a distinct jack-zone in SCMI where Albion (10 mi east of Marshall) over to Jackson scored the most/best combo of all three waves. 18-20" with the bliz. 

Albion is a small town but has a high-end liberal arts college and has collected wx data for many decades:

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

At least it will get cold.  Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke.  But cold nonetheless.  And if it gets colder that means chances of snow.  I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong  in the long range.  So anything is possible.  

At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying).  We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day).  Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds.

[OttumwaSnomow]

8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Im not going to quote any of you, nor will I trash the models. But here on the ground in the real world this December  is turning  out much as Dec 2021.  Mild,  big warm blow mid month (tornados 2021) and cooler with  click bait for end of the month.  Think for  my sanity I leave here for awhile. December  is beginning  to be November  and my  business  revenue  proves it. How many years will years will Decembers continue  like this?  December  weather is putting me under!

So I did a little  research  from  my business  data back to 2011. December generally  should  occupy  3rd best month  of year for our snow and ice management  division.  2018 thru 2021 basically  only ONE PLOWABLE EVENT!  In the data the  December  has fallen from the clear 3rd best month  for snow work and occasionally  #1 or #2 month  to barely  any snow at all! In fact  nov, march and even  april  have produced  more work for us than December!!!!!

[Clinton]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS brings another system through next week that helps fill in areas that miss with the upcoming storm.

Second map is total snow leading up to Christmas Eve morning.

How cool will it be if 75% or more of the people who post on here have a white Christmas. I only have a 10% chance on any given year.  Obviously I'm more optimistic about my chances this year.

[Stacsh]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying).  We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day).  Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds.

True but you’d be surprised at how many miss out on lake effect in Michigan.  Especially the southern half.  Extremely localized outside of Lake enhanced events. I have said all year that  I expect the majority of my snow to be from the lake.   More cold west wind events than just a dry NW flow that doesn’t favor my locale.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

At least it will get cold.  Obviously not as cold as the models are showing because they are a joke.  But cold nonetheless.  And if it gets colder that means chances of snow.  I prefer the models to overdue the cold because it means the storm tracks will be completely wrong  in the long range.  So anything is possible.  

Yeah. Seeing BN ups my odds exponentially over just "normal" temps which we've had mostly to date. One good thing I do like about the slower slide in temps is that the soil temps have been lowering so when we do see snow, we won't be battling the warm ground we had last winter (entire season except for the CAD Jan period). Trying to keep as positive as possible. Early season cold almost always gets the lake belts something. Much harder here ofc. Not a fan of bitter cold unless I have a decent (4+) cover. Then I will gladly endure. I have pretty much decided I will need to go north during the holidays to see meaningful snow OTG. Would love to be proven wrong.  

[jaster220]

47 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

True but you’d be surprised at how many miss out on lake effect in Michigan.  Especially the southern half.  Extremely localized outside of Lake enhanced events. I have said all year that  I expect the majority of my snow to be from the lake.   More cold west wind events than just a dry NW flow that doesn’t favor my locale.  

Even that GFS run with the huge synoptic void for our region shows just that coming off the lake. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Excited to see reruns showing up of what looks like a "Blitz 2000" scenario. 

Unless you are referring to The Plains bliz, I haven't seen anything Dec of 2000 like for Iowa east to MI yet. Just a bunch of remembering and talk. Nothing currently flashed even comes close. Did I miss something??

[Naptownwx]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS brings another system through next week that helps fill in areas that miss with the upcoming storm.

Second map is total snow leading up to Christmas Eve morning.

Liking my chances for once

[Naptownwx]

Not bad

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Unless you are referring to The Plains bliz, I haven't seen anything Dec of 2000 like for Iowa east to MI yet. Just a bunch of remembering and talk. Nothing currently flashed even comes close. Did I miss something??

I very likely got my years wrong. 

Look like we might see a good string of energy pieces roll thru from end of this week throughout Christmas after everyone uo there gets blasted.

I thought the cold snowy December here was 2000, but it might've been 2002.

Seeing snow in all 50 states at one time would be pretty special right before Christmas.

[Iceresistance]

12 minutes ago, Naptownwx said:

Not bad

What is the mean?

[Naptownwx]

8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What is the mean?

Very impressive chances for a white Christmas!

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

At least MI has the lake as an insurance policy in the event that there aren't system snows (I think there will be systems, but just saying).  We can revisit this in 2 weeks but I think it's likely that most of MI has a white Christmas (1"+ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day).  Even here I feel like it's better than climo odds.

I will be shocked if DTW doesn't have that much. I will be equally shocked if DTW has more than that.

[jaster220]

Rare map for mid-Dec

[jaster220]

What Dec has become:

[Andie]

22 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Couple inches a few days before Christmas and a Southern Plains special on Christmas night. I'd take it.

Okay, on the Texas/Okla. border what are we looking at Christmas Eve -26th?  
Rain, ice, snow?   
(Really important)  

[Hoosier]

Long way off but that is a major storm in the works toward the end of the 00z Canadian run.

[Naptownwx]

This pattern has extreme potential 

[Clinton]

0z Euro

0z GFS

The CMC may be doing the best of the bunch.

[Clinton]

Windy week ahead and turning cold.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a rather gloomy day with an official H/L of 38/32 there was 0.01” of rain fall, no snow fall and no sunshine. At 70AM there was a trace of snow on the ground. The temperatures held steady overnight with the low here in MBY of 34 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is 37/26 the record high of 60 was shared by 3 years 1899,1949 and 1991. The record low of -5 was set in 1958. The record snow fall amount of 6.0” was set in 1903 and 1972.

Today will be another cloudy mid December day is expected. Highs in the mid-30s. Winds will be light and variable this morning but will come from the east at 5 to 10 mph by mid aCloudy skies tonight will set the stage for the rest of the week; we're not going to see much, if any, sunshine. There is a chance of rain mixed with snow during the latter half of the week. Highs will remain in the 30s.fternoon.

Looking ahead. After being mostly warmer than normal through the middle of December, a much colder period continues to look more and more likely for the week prior to Christmas. If the current forecast is actually correct, it would be the coldest since the 14.4 degrees in 2000. We are expecting lake effect snow nearly every day from the from Saturday the 17th, through Christmas day. If this indeed happens we should have a White Christmas this year.