December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

@ClintonLooks like the mid week storm for next week is trying to be on the colder side for some. Interesting scenario shaping up. Its going to be a windy system as well.

[bud2380]

GFS trying to get interesting Wednesday morning in areas of NE Iowa and southern WI

 

 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Niko said:

@ClintonLooks like the mid week storm for next week is trying to be on the colder side for some. Interesting scenario shaping up. Its going to be a windy system as well.

Models have been trending colder, this storm is going to bomb out and cut-off which will make predicting where it goes difficult.  Can't discount the Canadian solution either.  I figure where ever @james1976 is at the snow will follow 

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, Niko said:

@ClintonLooks like the mid week storm for next week is trying to be on the colder side for some. Interesting scenario shaping up. Its going to be a windy system as well.

"We'll see" is all I can say

[Hoosier]

As far as the system around mid-month, there is good general agreement on it maxing out in the Plains and then occluding and sort of getting shunted eastward.  The details with this as well as the amount of confluence in Canada will be big factors in determining ptypes around the Lakes.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As far as the system around mid-month, there is good general agreement on it maxing out in the Plains and then occluding and sort of getting shunted eastward.  The details with this as well as the amount of confluence in Canada will be big factors in determining ptypes around the Lakes.

No kicker for this system until the 18th or so.  It may spin with disturbances rotating around it for several days and pull down a lot of cold with it, makes the CMC run interesting.

[Hoosier]

Here's a comparison between the GFS and Canadian in a snapshot in time.  System has occluded on both models by this point, but the surface low on the Canadian is stronger along with less confluence and you can see the effects with a warmer looking solution.

 

[GDR]

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro

It's just teasing me now.  Please come south.

[Hawkeye]

It looks like a lot of nothing, snow-wise, for many of us until at least the holidays.  New year, same story.

[bud2380]

35 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It looks like a lot of nothing, snow-wise, for many of us until at least the holidays.  New year, same story.

Yep, after the big storm next week, things go calm for the next several days per the Euro.  

[tStacsh]

Boring start to winter

[Hoosier]

Why are we putting faith in super long range operational runs?

[MIKEKC]

LRC thoughts....

Cycle 1 for KC saw a very stormy pattern from OCT. 23rd to Nov.14th, that part of the pattern cycles again starting Monday next week....

The storm hitting the Plains next week around Dec. 12-13, is 50-51 days from the big storm that hit the Plains on Oct. 23rd-24th. KC received 1.5-2 inches of rain

Following this storm, KC was hit again 11 days later, 2-3 inches of rain fell. So, based on that 50-51 days, we should see a large storm system in the Plains around Dec. 21st-23rd.

I know the models have flashed some serious cold by this time frame(21st-23rd), but, looking back following the October 23rd storm, in that 11 day period to the next big storm, we had temps soar to as high as 20 degrees above average. We had 80 degrees in early NOV. 

Following that big storm, 5 days later, KC again had a wet system, .65-1.2 inches. Again, very warm for the first 10 days of Nov. Very cold for 10 days following this system

4 days the cold was in place and we had our first snow on Nov. 14th and total of .24 inches of liquid.

So, one would argue that the next (2) storms should come with warm-ups prior to the storm hitting(KC) it's Dec. and we won't see 60's and 70's, but, 30's and 40's would be warm for late Dec. standards. Seasonal differences.

I think the real cold doesn't hit until closer to the New Year per the cycle in place. So, will we have the storms but too warm in KC? If the LRC can predict warm and colder parts of the pattern, the next (3) storms for KC stand a better chance of be rain than snow? (1) of those storms is a given, as a huge warm-up will occur on Monday and Tuesday and the rain will be plentiful with next week's big storm here in KC. So, right on track from cycle one. The next two storms had incredible warmth in the pattern. Why won't that repeat? 

In summary, KC should see a storm on Dec. 13th, Dec. 21st-23rd, Dec. 28thish (3) bigger storms and than finally the 4th in a serious of storm from cycle one around Jan. 2nd. The Jan. 2nd one came when the pattern was very cold.

[Hoosier]

This December is already different and will be different than the recent ones, regardless of how much snow falls at a given location.

[MIKEKC]

7 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Boring start to winter

For your area? Didn't you receive a lot of snow a few weeks back?? Plus, what about all the snow storms along I-80 and north? Way faster start than last year, no?

[tStacsh]

16 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

For your area? Didn't you receive a lot of snow a few weeks back?? Plus, what about all the snow storms along I-80 and north? Way faster start than last year, no?

Yeah. a freak LES event in Nov. which melted within 4-5 days.  Almost feels like that was a different season ago.     Nothing since.  Hence the boring start.  Didn't say it wouldn't get better.  Just stating the fact that it's been a very boring start to winter here.  

[Clinton]

12z EPS for next weeks storm (12th -16th)

And the 17th - 24th which shows 1 storm around the 19th -22nd and has another storm approaching the middle of the country on Christmas Eve.  Not boring imo.

 

 

[Hoosier]

The way I see it, nobody who is running above average snow to date is entitled to gripe.  

[MIKEKC]

13 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Yeah. a freak LES event in Nov. which melted within 4-5 days.  Almost feels like that was a different season ago.     Nothing since.  Hence the boring start.  Didn't say it wouldn't get better.  Just stating the fact that it's been a very boring start to winter here.  

Gotha! Yeah....I liked to see some arctic air get into the pattern and see what we can do with it. Here in KC, we need a lot to go right to receive snow. We didn't have a single snowflake last Dec. and Jan. 1st showed up and we had (7) good winter storms ending March 10th. So, winter turned out pretty good. It was a warm winter though, overall, a really warm winter actually. We caught lighting in a bottle for those (7) events as either side of them was really warm. We never held a snow pack longer than 3-4 days last year. 

Hoping for a colder winter this year. It's early, we'll see how it turns out. 

[MIKEKC]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS for next weeks storm (12th -16th)

And the 17th - 24th which shows 1 storm around the 19th -20th and has another storm approaching the middle of the country on Christmas Eve.  Not boring imo.

 

 

Let's hope its on to something. Ready for winter!!

[Clinton]

Just now, MIKEKC said:

Let's hope its on to something. Ready for winter!!

I heard Gary on the radio say he thinks KC has a 75% chance of a white Christmas.  That's pretty strong for him to say publicly.

[Hoosier]

Check out this snowfall stat for Chicago.  Today's whopping 0.2" at ORD is the most snow in the first 10 days of December since 2018.

[Clinton]

It looks like the sub will see 3 storms starting next week through Christmas Day.  Looks like the snow will stay on through Christmas for those that get hit.  What I like is the ensemble agreement from the 3 major models in the long range.  I've already shares the GEFS and EPS so here is the CMC.

12th -16th

17th -22nd

I can't fully separate the last 2 storms so I'll show the last 7 days of the run ending 12z on Christmas.

 

[tStacsh]

4 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I know everything is relative.  After living in Dallas, Chicago, KC, Des Moines, Minneapolis and central Indiana, I really do understand that.  But still, I'd pay good money for your start to winter. 

Technically I'm snowless this winter so far.  If you count November, around 24" lol

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already watches issued for the Dakotas for next week, Monday night thru Wednesday. Seems like it's early to issue watches, but at this point things seem to be pretty locked in for that part of the country.

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Already watches issued for the Dakotas for next week, Monday night thru Wednesday. Seems like it's early to issue watches, but at this point things seem to be pretty locked in for that part of the country.

The models have made it clear over the years that you could never issue watches this early in my neck of the woods. Even 24 hrs out is a crapshoot here.

[Andie]

Oh brother.

70* tomorrow with a 90% chance of rain. 

So much for getting any shopping done.  It'll clear for Sunday. 

[Iceresistance]

I had a lot of lightning recently

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Boring start to winter

says the guy who's had 2 feet 

2014 was the same BS, only worse cuz zero snow all December. And that's the autumn you love to tout, lol.  

At least we have 2/3 of the month left to see some kind of action this time. 

[Niko]

That Canadian HP over northeastern Canada next week could play a role on precipitation type w/ that big midweek storm for some.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

says the guy who's had 2 feet 

2014 was the same BS, only worse cuz zero snow all December. And that's the autumn you love to tout, lol.  

At least we have 2/3 of the month left to see some kind of action this time. 

I’m not as optimistic as some.  If it gets super cold and dry.  It’s just a waste.  Yeah the lakes will produce some snow, but ugh. It’s crazy how hard it is to just get decent snowfall nowadays here from a system. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Midnight going into Christmas Eve.

Christmas week is loaded!

[Clinton]

19th -21st

Christmas week as a whole covers almost all of us

[westMJim]

Yesterday the official H/L was 34/28 there was 0.06” of precipitation and .6” of snow fall. There was 2% of possible sunshine and there was no snow on the ground at 7AM. The overnight low was 31 the current temperature both here in MBY and at GRR is 32 here at my house there is just a trace of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high of 62 was recorded in 1971 and the record low of +5 was recorded in 1977. The record snow fall amount of 7.2” was in 2009.

The forecast for.

Today

A slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle before 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tonight

A chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a chance of drizzle, snow showers, and freezing drizzle between 11pm and 4am, then a slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle after 4am. Patchy fog between 11pm and midnight. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

This week will start off dry and seasonable. A mix of precipitation will come in Wednesday, before colder temperatures move in for the end of the week with snow showers

[Wheezer]

[Tom]

Started a thread for the Blitz next week...

 

[Tom]

As many of you have started to discuss the active wx pattern leading up to the special Holiday season....the blocking is certainly going to get things rocking...what a beauty of a 500mb pattern!  Choo-Choo!  #WaveTrain

 

 

As those of you N of say I-80 get hit with Snow during Week 1....During Week 2, the pattern shifts South and should deliver a couple chances of snow.  Maybe a well-timed Christmas Special??

[Clinton]

I picked up some light rainfall overnight .20 inches fell.  Cloudy damp day ahead with some cooler temps in the forecast.