December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro

0z GFS

The CMC may be doing the best of the bunch.

We will have to see how this plays out. 

[Tom]

5 hours ago, Naptownwx said:

This pattern has extreme potential 

This x100...Giddy up!

Not a bad colorful map for DEC...the West is rockin'...now its time for those East of the Rockies...

 

 

[chescowxman]

Dry and seasonably chilly start to the work week through Wednesday. It looks like a major storm will impact the area with our first nor'easter of the season starting on Thursday. As always the exact track of the storm will determine how much if any snow or ice we get before any change to rain.

The record high for today is 69 degrees from 2015. Our record low is 2 degrees above zero set in 1988. The rain record is 1.98" from 1993. Our daily snow record is the 3" from 1916.

[Tom]

I took this video at the pool yesterday and it was sorta busy bc it'll prob be the last real nice pool day for quite some time.  Not a cloud in the deep blue sky!

 

 

Those mountain peaks in the distance should be white capped by Tuesday…

 

 

[Tom]

On this cold and rainy Monday morning, it's time for a little "Monday Manifestations"...well, while I was flipping through the models today, I came to realize something as I looked at the calendar and thought to myself, "when will this Blizzard cycle again?"  Well, wouldn't ya know that it should cycle through right around Jan 31st/Feb 2nd???   Is there a Ground Hog Day Blitz forthcoming???  What's interesting about this idea, is just yesterday, I was thinking about storm analogs (thanks @gabel23) and how this year's LRC pattern can deliver formidable storm systems.  This won't be the last Big Dog our Sub will be tracking bc the way I see it, it's just the beginning of a wild ride into 2023.  My 2 cents on some LR thoughts. 

Now, what do we have here....0z Euro flashing a GL's Blitz scenario to welcome in the Winter Solstice...

Snow Depth on the 21st...Welcome Winter!  Brrrr....

 

0z EPS...Festive Miracle in the cards...nice SW/NE Flow all the way down south into our OK/TX friends... @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance

 

 

[tStacsh]

Really optimistic about LES over the next 2 weeks.  Should have staying power this time around.   Mix in some colder synoptic snows and it will be a festive holidays.  

[Jarod]

10 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Really optimistic about LES over the next 2 weeks.  Should have staying power this time around.   Mix in some colder synoptic snows and it will be a festive holidays.  

GRR NWS is pretty optimistic too. 

 

[tStacsh]

7 minutes ago, Jarod said:

GRR NWS is pretty optimistic too. 

 

With Lake Michigan averaging in the mid 40's, that type of cold would certainly dump snow on the usual places.  Just need one storm big or small to go along with the cold.  

[tStacsh]

Well this would be absolutely epic if it came true.  

 

[Tom]

A bit of positive data for those of you out west in NE/KS region...both the CFSv2 and LR GEFS are showing a much AN precip and cold temps.  I think once we get past Christmas, the pattern is going to be ripe for a hyper N Stream wave train hitting the N & C Rockies.  I think a few CO Low's are not out the picture with this set up to close DEC and open JAN.

 

This is from the 0z 11th run so it will likely be much colder the farther east than what this map is showing...

 

 

 

[BMT]

CAD is active as well.  Trying to not get too excited about that solstice storm.  

[Tom]

12z GGEM...going to the extreme??  Nice looking Winter Solstice storm...

 

[Tom]

This pattern has HUGE potential...man, just hope the models keep the consistency going...

[bud2380]

Definitely starting to get interesting next week.  The GFS is really picking up on the storm that the Euro has been showing for a couple runs, and the GEM.  

Showing QPF since Pivotal doesn't have a 48 hour snow map, just QPF and this is a longer duration event with a couple pieces of energy currently depicted.  Plenty of cold air in place this time.  

 

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Too bad they can't program computer weather models to ask themselves whether their forecasts pass a minimum credibility test. 

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow heading into Christmas morning. 

Looks pretty dang good for many folks here. Hopefully the snow hole around S NE/KS/OK fills in a bit. As others have said, tons of potential ahead!

My gosh.  As always, I assume this map will verify and I'll be surprised if it doesn't.  Seen this so many times over the years, that you become numb to it.

[mlgamer]

11 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Too bad they can't program computer weather models to ask themselves whether their forecasts pass a minimum credibility test. 

I think this is more of an issue with the tropical tidbit maps reflecting sleet and freezing precip rather than a GFS issue. The possibility of strong arctic high pressure suppressing the storm track and winter precip way south seems reasonable (and sadly typical for KS/MO...lol)

[OmahaSnowFan]

How many clown maps have to be shown to realize they’re called clown maps for a reason?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lolz.

[mlgamer]

6 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

But even leaving the sleet aside,  I'll eat my hat if Waco, Texas gets 17 inches of snow between now and Christmas (as shown using Kuchera).  

Yeah, I hear ya, but it does show a snow hole over our region which makes it highly credible with me anyway...lol

[bud2380]

I would hope that nobody on here has any reasonable expectation of snow maps beyond 7 days verifying.  I do agree that posting 384 hour snow maps has virtually no value, in fact for a period of time Pivotal and other sites stopped displaying snow calculations beyond 240 hours for this very reason.  But, some people get excited by them, I just mostly ignore them when i see them because if you wait 6 hours, it will look completely different anyways.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This pattern has HUGE potential...man, just hope the models keep the consistency going...

Everyone I watched yesterday from JB on down to Youtubers saying the same thing

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM...going to the extreme??  Nice looking Winter Solstice storm...

 

Ridiculous pressure gradient for that storm with a 1065 mb high in Montana 

[bud2380]

Euro does show the system Monday still.  Pretty weak, but it's something.  It also is creeping that 850 line further north, so something to watch in future runs.

 

[Hawkeye]

It's nice to see the models now trending away from the cold and dry nw flow, in favor of energy digging into the western US.  That's what we need if we want any moisture.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think it's safe to assume on a weather forum that people would know 384 hour snow maps (or really anything over 240, if that) do not have a high likelihood of verifying verbatim. Something that doesn't really need to be said.

Although, going back over the past four pages and I don't see a single 384 hour snow map. All the snow maps being shared are either a) totals within a specific timeframe trying to capture the potential with a certain storm or b) total snow maps through < 290 hours, generally showing total snow through Christmas time which is arguably the most important weekend in the entire year for snow so pretty understandable there, IMO.

Almost seems like a particular user here (not directed at you) just likes to beat the 'Lolz you guys are stoooopid believin these maps, I know better than all of you' drum for no real reason. Definitely starting to pick up on the habits of certain posters over here. Apparently, just like the other side of the forum, there are some people who think their sole purpose is to piss on the parade.

Well said, I think its fair to say that a high % of the members on here know not to take LR, cherry picked, model solutions verbatim.  If there is a trend in the 6-10 day range, I get it, but other than that its just fun looking at them.  Heck, I do it myself!  Nevertheless, as you righteously said, posting maps around Christmas time are probably the most sought after snow maps every member on here wants to see (including myself).  This may be one of those rare Christmas holidays where both the N & S members in this Sub get to see snow OTG or falling on the day of Christmas.

[Tom]

Speaking of Christmas, the Trend is + and appears to be on the right track...

[bud2380]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think it's safe to assume on a weather forum that people would know 384 hour snow maps (or really anything over 240, if that) do not have a high likelihood of verifying verbatim. Something that doesn't really need to be said.

Although, going back over the past four pages and I don't see a single 384 hour snow map. All the snow maps being shared are either a) totals within a specific timeframe trying to capture the potential with a certain storm or b) total snow maps through < 290 hours, generally showing total snow through Christmas time which is arguably the most important weekend in the entire year for snow so pretty understandable there, IMO.

Almost seems like a particular user here (not directed at you) just likes to beat the 'Lolz you guys are stoooopid believin these maps, I know better than all of you' drum for no real reason. Definitely starting to pick up on the habits of certain posters over here. Apparently, just like the other side of the forum, there are some people who think their sole purpose is to piss on the parade.

I'm not trying to disparage anyone who's enthusiastic about the weather.  Just keep doing what you're doing.  I just personally don't put stock into anything beyond 240 hours (and really more like 192 hours) other than to watch for trends. But I agree they are fun to look at.   

[Black Hole]

It is absolutely fine to post and even get excited about 384 hr GFS maps (etc). It is a weather forum and we all know (or will quickly learn) about the verification of maps at that range. 

[Black Hole]

Model trends the last few days have obviously been interesting. Definitely some good potential for snow in OK and surrounding regions coming up. I'll be happy with a couple inches and if it doesn't melt in 24 hours. 

[Black Hole]

In the shorter term, its been cloudy for several days here. Looks like one more gloomy day with showers but by tomorrow evening the sun will probably pop out again. 

[bud2380]

18z GFS went to this vs. the 12z run.  Just a slight change...

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

As far as the long range snow maps, I think it can be a problem in the case of a newer member seeing them and thinking that it will happen.  I know it's an issue on social media when the public sees these crazy looking snow maps and believes that it's coming.  Meteorologists hate that. 

But anyone who has been around a little while knows not to put much stock in long range snow maps.

[Black Hole]

18z GFS had an ideal track of the low and nailed me...but I expect plenty of variability still to come. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I think it's safe to assume on a weather forum that people would know 384 hour snow maps (or really anything over 240, if that) do not have a high likelihood of verifying verbatim. Something that doesn't really need to be said.

Although, going back over the past four pages and I don't see a single 384 hour snow map. All the snow maps being shared are either a) totals within a specific timeframe trying to capture the potential with a certain storm or b) total snow maps through < 290 hours, generally showing total snow through Christmas time which is arguably the most important weekend in the entire year for snow so pretty understandable there, IMO.

Almost seems like a particular user here (not directed at you) just likes to beat the 'Lolz you guys are stoooopid believin these maps, I know better than all of you' drum for no real reason. Definitely starting to pick up on the habits of certain posters over here. Apparently, just like the other side of the forum, there are some people who think their sole purpose is to piss on the parade.

Snow maps <290 hours are no better than 384 hour maps for accuracy either.

For clarification purposes my “Lolz” are at the big snow hole continuously showing up over Nebraska, not calling anyone stupid.

You shouldn’t be so offended either, calling them clown maps is a phrase as old as time.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS went to this vs. the 12z run.  Just a slight change...

 

 

 

Just punch that ticket for me one time. Please. 

[OKwx2k4]

40 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Snow maps <290 hours are no better than 384 hour maps for accuracy either.

For clarification purposes my “Lolz” are at the big snow hole continuously showing up over Nebraska, not calling anyone stupid.

You shouldn’t be so offended either, calling them clown maps is a phrase as old as time.

I smack talk them too and call them the old school names. We all still somewhere call them "clown maps" in our hearts. Lol. At one point, we were all the clowns posting them too and learning. 

"Clown range" is another term loosely referring to anything after 7-10 days most of the time or knowing, like someone said, should have a disclaimer with them saying, "NOT POSSIBLE" on them. Lol. 

[jaster220]

On 12/11/2022 at 5:53 PM, jaster220 said:

12-11-00 was the Big Dog and the first of several storms in a train of storms. Deep deep snow cover blanketed most of SMI peaking just a few days before Christmas. 

You can see a distinct jack-zone in SCMI where Albion (10 mi east of Marshall) over to Jackson scored the most/best combo of all three waves. 18-20" with the bliz. 

Albion is a small town but has a high-end liberal arts college and has collected wx data for many decades:

As a follow-up I found this from DTX. I'd say this balanced out the bliz of '99 fail for the Thumb region. "Davison" east of Flint is my hometown. This was likely a TOP 3 storm with Jan '67 firmly holding #1 and April '75 in the #2 spot. Been too long since I've seen a good drift-maker (bliz warning of Valentine's Day 2015 to be exact). 

On This Date in Weather History...

December 11

On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals cancelled.

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Speaking of Christmas, the Trend is + and appears to be on the right track...

Todays 12z Euro and Euro Control really caught my eye with the 2 systems close together 1 weak and 1 strong with the stronger one tracking up through the Ohio Valley very similar to cycle 1.  The Euro didn't quite go out far enough to capture it all but the Control was with it step for step on this run.  I'm sure there will be a lot of bobbles and wobbles over the next few days but when it's over I wonder how close this run will be.

 

[Clinton]

White Christmas history for KC, as you can see they are few and far between.