PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 12. Just pretend its Day 3 it's more fun.

564dm at Anchorage with tilt…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

When you look at December 1990 on the other hand, much more of a traditional Siberian/cross polar evolution. 

What do we need to do to get another one of those?! So much CAA with that mFer. 

[Deweydog]

Day 12 is teleconnective PORN.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gots to be careful with 1989 comparisons. That was pretty much an albino donkey with the manner in which it was a festering AK air mass which released in a nanosecond during a -EPO explosion. 

I've always been told it's the best example of a true "Siberian Express", with some funky endogenous AK air tagged alongside. Looking at Euro reanalysis I guess that airmass' upstream origins were singing with the Soviets, but ultimately it was a fairly patriotic blast. Was pretty nutty how the blocking episode manifested out of what appeared to be an infuriating +EPO purgatory.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oh is that the one single time that a cold airmass went straight from AK to PNW or something? 

It's happened a few other times but it's definitely rare. December 1964 was similar and perhaps even a little more dramatic. Anchorage set a monthly record low of -30 on 12/14/1964 and it blasted almost directly SE from there. On 12/16/1964, Bellingham had a 10/-1 spread.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing to watch that bitterly cold air rotate towards us from the NE.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

[TT-SEA]

Something big is coming.

In the meantime... 36 here with cold rain and random snowflakes.    My area is just like the rest of the lowlands tonight.   East wind wasn't quite enough and its too warm aloft.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve noticed a lot of our best arctic blasts of the 20th century (and 21st) have been in December, but January has by far our best potential to be a top tier cold month… from a historical standpoint. 

[Meatyorologist]

Long range GFS is every weenie's wet dream.

[Kolk1604]

Okay Rob, you got my attention 

[Deweydog]

First REAL silly-Billy run of the season!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh that clown range GFS, where it forgets that the Cascades exist.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

@Meatyorologist

That's the music building and it doesn't have a roof. So I'm going to go with 1949? I think it was finished in 1950, so 1949 sounds good. Could be 1948? Before my time for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh that clown range GFS, where it forgets that the Cascades exist.

Not really. You can see the cold

air stacking up against the east slopes. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've always been told it's the best example of a true "Siberian Express", with some funky endogenous AK air tagged alongside. Looking at Euro reanalysis I guess that airmass' upstream origins were singing with the Soviets, but ultimately it was a fairly patriotic blast. Was pretty nutty how the blocking episode manifested out of what appeared to be an infuriating +EPO purgatory.

Nah, 1989 was AK’s baby. They were freezing their tootsies off for several days as we were in +PNA purgatory and then BLAMMO!

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh that clown range GFS, where it forgets that the Cascades exist.

No, it didn't forget. 

[smerfylicious]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Something big is coming.

In the meantime... 36 here with cold rain and random snowflakes.    My area is just like the rest of the lowlands tonight.   East wind wasn't quite enough and its too warm aloft.  

Our weather has been so....similar recently. Maybe we have another degree or two of cooling in us.

[MossMan]

Andrew is much happier at night! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like CA continues to do well in all scenarios.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Our weather has been so....similar recently. Maybe we have another degree or two of cooling in us.

I think this is the coldest point... not going to happen tonight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really. You can see the cold

air stacking up against the east slopes. 

Still think I'm safe in adding about 10˚F to those modelled surface temperatures on the west side.

[MossMan]

My deck pile is looking a bit sad. 
Wind and raw rain currently! 37. 

[Deweydog]

It’s a good thing Joe’s infrastructure bill included legislation that declared lofty long range monthly weenie vaguecasts to have a 10 day variance for gloating purposes.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

My deck pile is looking a bit sad. 
Wind and raw rain currently! 37. 

47˚F rain would be better. Would melt it faster.

Once it gets to that stage it is ugly. Might as well be gone with it.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Still think I'm safe in adding about 10˚F to those modelled surface temperatures on the west side.

No because it is possible. November 2006 

[Kolk1604]

4pm Christmas Eve, Snow for Rob 

[Dave]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nah, 1989 was AK’s baby. They were freezing their tootsies off for several days as we were in +PNA purgatory and then BLAMMO!

89 was my favorite blast of all time. Very very chilly. Dexter Reservoir (not small) froze completely over. Playing in the snow and sledding required real cold weather gear. 

[BLI snowman]

That Christmas Eve would kinda make up for last year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is ending with a bang!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

No because it is possible. November 2006 

Possible and likely are two different things.

It did get into the single digits here a year ago, in fact. But, teens are a much more reasonable forecast. And a year ago the Goofus was alleging we would be below zero, so adding 10 worked just about right then, too.

Bookmark this post if you want and we will see who is right — assuming this cold snap even verifies.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run is ending with a bang!

All that cold on this run and western WA still doesn't get much snow... but western OR is another story! 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhh

[Deweydog]

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

89 was my favorite blast of all time. Very very chilly. Dexter Reservoir (not small) froze completely over. Playing in the snow and sledding required real cold weather gear. 

I believe that was the blast where my friend and I rode our bikes across Lake Goodwin and survived! My grandma was distracted by As The World Turns. I believe that is also when someone tried to drive a Suzuki Samurai out onto the lake and didn’t make it. Luckily it was the shallow part of the lake! Great times!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All that cold on this run and western WA still doesn't get much snow... but western OR is another story! 

 

Pepto for me, I’ll take it!

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh

PREPARE NOW!!!!!!

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All that cold on this run and western WA still doesn't get much snow... but western OR is another story! 

 

That better change Tim!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well alrighty then… that may be the single most insane GFS run I’ve ever seen.